Sunday, August 7, 2016

TRUMP'S TWO WAYS TO VICTORY

++The person who is in the lead of the polls at this date has won 92% of the time. In two weeks,the odds get to 99%. The only two people who have ever won when behind by August 21 are George H,W, Bush and Harry Truman. 

++Donald Trump has two ways to get to an electoral college victory--actually one--and the other is a tie.

++He can win all the Romney states and flip Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida and get to 273. This year the tipping states according to Upshot are Florida , Ohio and Pennsylvania in that order. 

++the other way to an electoral tie is winning Florida,Ohio, losing Pennsylvania and winning Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

++The polls out of Pennsylvania show Hillary Clinton is winning by 60 to 20 in the southern countries, even more than Obama and has a significant
 lead 55% in Alleghany County.

++We heard this week from Jon Ralston that Trump doesn't have an organization in Nevada whose population is increasing Hispanic. And New Hampshire shows Trump drastically behind. In Florida,Hillary has an 8 pt. lead.

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