Thursday, August 18, 2016

TWO ARTICLES TO SAY TRUMP IS DOOMED.

++In the WaPo,Greg Sergant writes,"There are not enough blue collar men in America to elect Trump.Really."And Jeremy Peters in the New York Times "Donald Trump's Crucial Pillar of Support,white men, shows weakness."

++Peters writes that it would be difficult to design a strategy to get less popular support than Trump's. Romney won white males by 27pts. Bloomberg Survey shows Trump with a low single digit lead in white males. While the WSJ/Marist polls showed that Clinton had a 43%-42% lead in males over Trump.

++Brookings Institute did some simulations and determined that if all non-college white males voted for Trump,Clinton would win the popular vote by 1.1 million.

++In 1980 when Ronald Reagan won election,88% of the electorate was white. In this election,it is estimated at less than 70%.

++Martin Longman at Washington Monthly had a terrific article on the nature of the Trump voter. Based on Gallup research,he showed that they were more suburban than rural,didn't suffer alot during the Great Recession and lived in racially "separate" communities where they had little contact with people of color. They felt more their status was declining and took as reference things that were chaotic in the neighboring community or in the country. 

++Under Booman,Longman at the Booman Tribune wrote two articles to date--well,worth the read--on how this all white election strategy was developed and how it was clear that the GOP could not run on the Romney-McCain platform and win. Alas,choices were made--all awful.

++Interesting note: if voting were restricted to those under the age of 45,Hillary Clinton would win every state and D.C. It seems to me that the scary figure for the GOP going to the future.

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