David Ignatius On Bibifest

++David Ignatius has a must-read op-ed in the Imperial Post about why Bibi broke from President Obama on the Iranian nuclear negotiations. Read closely and it is mind-boogling.

++Israel claims the United States--who apparently is negotiating with no other partners--will allow Iran to be a nuclear threshold state--that is they wouldn't have a bomb but could in a short time.

++Something to remember,a bipartisan commission already determined that an Israeli strike against Iran's sites would set the program back 2 years, and American strike 4 years. Of course,this assumes Iran will not counter-attack. A full invasion of Iran would cost $1.7 trillion dollars and would affect the world economy.

++Now the United States wants a 10-20 year agreement with Iran. It is assuming that there will be a change of leadership and the younger, more democratic generation will emerge. Israel says this is wishful thinking and it may be right.

++So the issue of the centrifuges revolves around the export of the enriched uranium to be processed into reactor fuel, a process France does well. 

++Bibi has slipped back to the position that Iran should have no enrichment capability. An impossible negotiating position. 

++So if the United States gets only a 10-year agreement,the assumption is that we will be too pre-occupied by another crisis and it will take the investigators several months to determine whether Iran has broken the agreement and another few months for the West to react. 

++But then a 10-year agreement means that Israel and we can not attack the facilities and risk the regional counter-reaction. It seems a ten year or more agreement works in this uncertain world.

++Another point of the divorce is that Bibi won't guarantee he would notify the US before his attack on Iran. The implication is that American facilities and troops would be at risk without our knowing it. Israeli military has said prior notification would limit their options.

++Bibi and Obama do agree that additional sanctions prior to the end of the negotiations would sabotage the talks, which Bibi wants to do. The problem with this is that the US is to blame and this would leave Iranian facilities without any international inspections. In other words, Bibi would create an Iran at the nuclear threshold.

++Washington is annoyed as hell at Bibi's leaks because he doesn't mention the checks in place being negotiated and will end up with the nightmare he fears through his own actions.

++This may be moot because the IAEA says that Iran has not accounted for a period of its nuclear program in the past which seemed to produce explosions.