The New GOP --Part II

My previous blog was rudely interrupted and published.

Nate Silver at www.fivethirtyeight.com has an interesting article "Are the Republicans going Galt?" He cites the libertarian roots of the Fox-sponsored tea parties and that 80% of Republicans view government as a bigger threat than either Big Business or Big Labor, a traditional Gallup poll. Democrats only see Big Government as a bigger threat at 32% and Big Business as 52%. Independents view Big government as a bigger threat by 59% and Big Business by 30%. Big Labor has almost disappeared as a threat, even to Republicans.

Nate argues that Republicans are not shouting about illegal immigration as much because of the trampling they took with the Hispanic vote, are uncertain about gay marriage and have even started discussing legalizing marijuana. While I respect Nate's work, I am highly dubious of the ultimate effect of libertarianism on the Republican Party.

The leading contenders for the 2012 presidential nomination are all born-again Christians or self-proclaimed religious crusaders--Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal and New Gingrich. Newt as a born-again Catholic has been acting as a new Torquemada. He almost looks like Brando in the role in the film Christopher Columbus. Newt is leading the crusade for torture and banning President Obama from receiving an honorary doctorate from Notre Dame because his politics are not in concert with Catholic doctrine, which the new convert as thoroughly memorized.

Currently, conservative religious activists are spearheading the drive to stop Governor Kathleen Sibelius from becoming the next Secretary for Health and Human Services. The list of advocates are an aging who's who of the religious right--Brent Bozell, Tony Perkins, James Dobson and the ever-present Grover Norquist. Similarly, Senator Imhofe is heading the filibuster against Judge Hamilton on the basis he ruled that the Indiana House of Representatives could not lead off their sessions with prayers in the name of Jesus Christ, a ruling that only followed Supreme Court rulings but conservatives no longer care about law.

Our neighbor Craig Shirley, who conducted some of the PR for the tea parties, says that "the GOP appears to be bankrupt of ideas." Some GOP operatives are trying to tag along with the tea parties. Newt has proposed July 4th parties to celebrate America's freedom--something we do every year but which Americans are loathed to politicize. The Ohio Militia has countered Newt's idea with a 1 million militia march on Washington, complete with guns. The tea party sponsors are pushing to link up with Glenn Beck's 9/12 project for a second-round of tea parties at that time. In short, Shirley is right--the Republicans are short of ideas.

Particularly noxious are the right-wing gambles to run primary challenges to established Senators Arlen Specter and John McCain because they are RINOs (Republican in Name Onlys.) If such challenges are victorious, both seats would turn Democratic. Also, conservatives are trying to run primary candidates against such favored candidates as Christie in New Jersey, thereby jeopardizing any gains at the statehouse levels. The party faces alot of bloodletting before it can stablize, which will be long after the economy does.

Conservatives are all out of sorts over the Obama administration's identification of extreme right ideas as magnets for recruiting by militant organizations. Within the conservatives circles they talk about a war by the Administration on conservatives. However, a reality check would show that certain acts will cement democratic majorities for years to come without any direct assault on conservatives. If the Obama Administration passes any type of meaningful health reform and immigration reform, those two acts alone coupled with the new census would make a conservative resurgence very unprobable. Some on conservative websites have said these issues constitute the Republican Alamo, another recent theme of conservatives. Perhaps, next stop Masada.

Without getting into specifics for now, Republicans face insurmontable odds to prevent the Democrats from passing the 60 number in the Senate. By just a glance, I can see from a 3-5 seat gain for the Democrats in 2010. I also don't think Dodd or Reid are as vulnerable as Republicans make out. I also think Burr will be defeated in North Carolina, Bunning will go down in Kentucky and Missouri will go Democrat. Republicans could pick up Delaware if they ran Mike Castle, former Governor and representative. Republicans will also lose New Hampshire.

As to the House side, we will leave it with Newt to predict a Republican take-over. His advice to Eic Cantor on this score is so improbable and beyond historical reasoning. Barack Obama is not Jimmy Carter as Newt claims and is not Bill Clinton as Newt dreams.