Radical Republicans

The two words have not been connected since the Civil War, when northern Republicans criticized Abraham Lincoln for his cautious approach to emancipation. But they had a point and an issue. It's unclear today what the point is when Newt Gingrich denounces Barack Obama shaking hands with Hugo Chavez and smiling. Newt is wrong about Republican Presidents not smiling with Soviet leaders. Nixon and Brezhnev were bosom buddies and Nixon and Mao got along well together. Ronald Reagan was frequently smiling with Gorbachev. But that's beside the point as are most discussions coming from the Republican Party.

Republican governors--Barbour, Stanford and Perry--recently held a press availability to argue that the Republicans will be roaring back in 2010 because Barack Obama has overreached with his agenda. Stanford argued that a backlash will elect Republican governors like they did Christie Todd Whitman in New Jersey in the 1990s. Advisers to Republican House leaders have urged them into an obstructionist mode because they argue the Republicans can re-take the house like Newt did in 1994. Republican chances on re-gaining some statehouses are decent with poor performances of Patterson in New York and the usual frolics of Democratic governors in New Jersey. But it's best that Republicans not drink their own Kool-Aid.

Republicans now stand at about 25% of the electorate, a whooping 15% below self-proclaimed Democrats and about 10% below Independents. An analogy is basically the core of the Republican Party are those who thought George W. Bush did a good job as President. Or another analogy is that the percentage of Republicans nearly equals the percentage of American workers who belong to a very weakened union movement. To be competitive in any national elections, the Republican Party must win nearly 70% of the Independent vote, something that is clearly not evident by approval ratings for Obama by independent voters.

Recently, Republican strategists have argued that they need to accelerate the get-out-the vote campaigns among rural white voters, where they have a decided edge. The problem with this is demographic. The rural vote has been in rapid decline for decades and is unlikely to come back any time soon.

To give you some idea of the problems facing a Republican party, especially one that embraces small government and the dismantling of social welfare programs, there are some key statistics. During Michael Dukakis's run for the Presidency in 1988, Asians, Hispanics, and Blacks made up 15% of the total electorate. In 2008, when Obama ran, these minorities constituted 28% of the vote. A more salient statistic is that in 1988, professionals made up 5% of the electorate, today it's 25%. This class has traditionally been the backbone of the Republican vote in exurbs and suburbs. Today, they are voting 60%+ for Democrats because they feel Republicans are too extreme. In states, which used to go Republican like Nevada and California, Obama polled between 35-48 points higher than Dukakis, which indicates trends toward Democratic majorities in these states.

Republicans made a tremendous strategic error of historical proportions by voting against Obama's stimulus package. In all likelihood, there will be an end to this near depression. At that point, no Republicans can claim any credit for aiding in its end. Even with the brief morale boost of the chaotic tea bag parties, closer look at these protests revealed a heavy influence of fringe parties such as Libertarians, the Constitution Party and the American Independence Party. This provoked Rush Limbaugh to warn Republicans about the possibility of the emergence of a third,conservative party. While the tea bag party population were unanimous in being against Barack Obama, they were nearly as caustic about Republicans in Congress.

At its present low level of esteem, the logical Republican nominee for 2012 is Sarah Palin. She puts a nice face to very radical rightwing policies. Both she and her husband are friendly to secessionists. Todd was a member of the Alaska Secessionist Party. Sarah just nominated an Attorney General who was pro-KKK and homophobic. Her family seems plagued by incidents of petty crime. Her son was told to enlist in the military or face jail because of vandalizing a couple dozen school busses. She has an unwed daughter. She is an end-timer in terms of religion, believing we are living in the last days. She is a very enthusiastic hunter and gun-owner. She is pro-life. She hits all the hot buttons for the remains of the Republican Party. Unfortunately, for Republicans, the numbers say she can't win.

I leave the final word to a West Coast liberal, who showed up at a local tea-bagging party with his sign," I shaved my balls.. for this!