The Empty Tent Solution

Or the Republican Ghost Dance

The defection of Allen Specter to the Democrats triggered an orgy of recriminations among Republicans this week. Yes, he was opportunist in changing parties because he faced certain defeat in the Pennsylvania primary to Club of Growth leader Pat Toomey. But Michael Steele had indicated in interviews with Fox News he would fund primary challenges to Specter,Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins for their support of the stimulus package.

Olympia Snowe was quick off the mark in commenting that moderates in the party felt like they were cast members of the television show Survivor and declared they were unwanted. In a Washington Post op-ed, former Senator from Maine, Bill Cohen, remarked how the moderate caucus in the party had 25 members when he first went to the Senate and ended with 5, when he left to be Secretary of Defense under Bill Clinton. After the crushing congressional defeats in 2006, Olympia Snowe wryly noted that she won with 75% in a blue-collar state but no one from the party asked her how she did it.

The Republican presence in the Northeast has practically vanished. With the defeat of Tedisco in New York's 20th district, there are only 3 Republicans left in the New York delegation. Over the past year alone, over 200,000 former Republicans re-registered as Democrats in Pennsylvania. The party is being eviscerated in the Midwest and on the West Coast. Today, the Republican Party is a regional party, holding temporary sway in the old Confederacy and in the Morman corridor.

This week saw five polls which showed a slight range of 21-22% Americans identifying themselves as Republicans. Independents have won a slight plurality over the Democrats. To be competitive in elections, Republicans will need to win 2/3rds of the independent vote, which looks out of reach with a party that is tightly controlled by its base of now extreme conservatives.

Rather than reaching out, the uniform response by the RNC, the talking heads and conservatives was to urge the removal of Snowe and Collins and John McCain. Freepers urged the removal of Orrin Hatch for his criticism of the Club of Growth; Catholic conservatives the removal of Senator Brownback for his vote in support of Kansas government Kathleen Sebelius. New Gingrich pontificated there was no room in the Republican Party for anyone in support of high taxes, big government and big spending. Bill Kristol claimed Specter's defection was a plus for the GOP.

This debate took place in front of the backdrop of the issue of torture with all the conservatives strongly defended torture with the exception of John McCain. Libertarian James Bovard, writing in Pat Buchanan's American Conservative in 2002, asked, "Have the Republicans become the party of torture, secret prisons and indefinite detention?"

A group of Republicans led by John McCain and Jeb Bush assembled a committee called the Foundation for a New America to seek out opinions on the direction of the party. This group included Mitt Romney, Bobby Jindal and other elected officials . But noticeable for their absence were moderates like Christ of Florida,Schwartzenegger of California or the Senators Snowe and Collins. The purpose of the committee was to recreate McCain's hallmark events-- the Townhall meeting.

The RNC unchastened by Specter's defection sent out robocalls, denouncing him for his links to President George W. Bush (!). They also ran a one-day ad that had a southern White voice pretend he was Barack Obama pledging to raise taxes and thanking former Weatherman and current professor Bill Ayres for his support. After pulling this one down, John "the Tan Man" Boehner cut an ad criticising Barack Obama for failing to keep us safe, with eerie music over footage of "jihadists". The problem with the ad was quickly noted by Hispanics, who pointed to all the images of Latinos in the ad and charged the House Republicans with bigotry.

The swine flu outbreak provided another opportunity for the Republicans and conservative talkshow hosts to claim that the transmitters of the disease were illegal immigrants. Neil Boortz on his talk show even went so far as to suggest this was a type of bio-terrorism. This theme ran from Fox News through Rush Limbaugh and Michael Savage. In fact, the swine flu seems to have originated at farms kept in Mexico by Virginia's own Smithfield Hams.

When Justice Souter sent a letter to President Obama announcing his impending retirement, Republicans claimed this was the event to turn their fortunes around. Within hours, they sent out opposition research on all possible nominess declaring them unacceptable. While Souter turned out to be a moderate civil libertarian, the conservative punditry claimed Obama could only do worse if he appointed a "radical". Souter voted against the Republicans in the Supreme Court case of Bush versus Gore.

Most observers believe that Obama will choose a woman and possibly go for an Hispanic woman such as federal judge Sonia Sotomayor, who was first appointed to the bench by President Bush. Probably liberal in social issues, she appears to be a moderate in business law cases, which she has handled. She has already been denounced as not having "a judicial temperment" by Republicans.

Moderate Republicans such as former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman has begged the litmus test be stopped for the sake of states where the GOP stands a good chance of winning state houses. Conservatives are running a primary challenge against Doug Christie, who runs in the polls ahead of Corzine. In Arizona, one of the most well-known Minutemen is running a primary challenge against John McCain on the platform of stopping illegal immigrattion.

With Republicans at a point lower than after Barry Goldwater's defeat in 1964, when they finished at 25% identification, recent polling of issues finds them at a greater disadvantage than before. Proponents of gay marriage now have a plurality of acceptance, legalization of marijuana has gained popularity, pro-choice is still dominant and only a lower--but still a majority--favor greater gun control. Even immigration reform has the support of the majority of the people. It even gets worse, Only 25% of the population do not believe we should do anything about global warming. A vast majority of Americans want health care reform.

What are the odds of Republicans becoming a party that offers constructive solutions to the problems of governance and the economy? I believe slim to none because the very conservative group of elected officials are still as not as extreme as the base. "Our base just hates Barack Obama"said one Washington Republican. Also, Republicans have a very difficult credibility problem in establishing they are for small government, fiscal responsibilty and the lack of government interference with one's personal life. The last fiscal conservative Republican was Dwight Eisenhower. The conservative governments of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush vastly expanded the powers and size of the executive branch and ran up historic deficits. And the social conservatives believe government should interfere in enforcing morality. So why would a voter believe they can trust the Republicans this time?

Conservatives are trying to back away from George W. Bush, who was in fact the culmination of the conservative movement's drive to power. The Bush Administration hired more ideological conservatives than any of the predecessors. Used the powers of the presidency to financially reward the evangelical community's support. Cut taxes to benefit the wealthy conservatives and handed out government contracts to donors like candy. To the neoconservatives, he embarked on a unilateral foreign policy and proclaimed a Pax Americana that other countries would be "forced" to recognize. But like all conservatives forever, they feel betrayed.

There is no self-reflection or self-criticism among the conservative movement at this moment. I think this is because outsiders miss the point. The struggle is ideological and not political. The talking heads are sincere in their desire to purify the party of anyone who is deviant from their ideology. It is a seige mindset. The media is against them--despite having more conservatives on the major networks than at any other time in history--, the judiciary--long since dominated by Republicans--is against them;the American culture is decayed and decadent and against their values; and Washington always betrays them. So you consolidate your power in your remaining outpost--despite disasterous political consequences--the Republican Party.

The point of all this is to overturn the liberal order--eventually--and to thwart American pluralism. Conservatives are now practicing what the Left would recognize as "Vanguardism" and are aiming to create a very authoritarian party. They are flirting with some dangerous elements in their disdain for elections they lose and a federal government that no longer reflects their policies. This is why there is a rise of secessionist sentiments within the Republican party itself--something unheard of before.

Once Republicans recruited evangelicals as candidates they locked in social conservatives and can not jettison them from their platform as the culture has turned dramatically away from their positions. Demographically, this will continue to be the case for the near future. If the party can not tolerate regional differences in this regard, it will enjoy a long winter. What one sees now among elected officials is the most moderate face of the party compared to what I believe is coming. When Republican leaders such as Sarah Palin saying the real America is in small towns, she is inadvertantly admitting that the party has lost its historical base--the suburbs. Rural America is diminishing in size dramatically.

At this moment, there is no road out from the Empty Tent.