21st Century--Goldwater versus Rockefeller

Polls taken immediately after Sarah Palin's resignation announcement show that 7 out of 10 Republicans would vote for her for the presidential nomination. Now with party identification standing at 20%--that's 14%, another 7% of Democrats said they would--so that's another 2.8%. So she starts 2012 out at 16.8%--factor in some independents and let's put it at about 20% of the total popular vote. Now where you get another 30+1% is a stretch. And the remaining Republican power-brokers know all this but given the authoritarian nature of the party now, no one is going to directly criticize the most popular Republican in the country.

If you scan the tentative 2012 presidential primaries and caucus schedule, she wins Iowa, loses New Hampshire to Romney, wins in South Carolina and has a big day on super Tuesday. Romney would have to keep enough cash on hand to make a comeback in March when Michigan rolls around. Only by a war of attrition will he have a chance against Sarah Palin. Mike Huckabee will try to position himself as the reliable and steady Theocon in the race and try to split the conservative vote.

Improbably as it seems, the 2012 Republican presidential race is shaping up to be a return some 48 years later of Barry Goldwater versus Nelson Rockefeller. Barry appeared as a tall, handsome figure with a chiseled face against the backdrop of the beautiful Arizona landscape running against the suited, peppery gazillionaire Nelson Rockefeller. Sarah Palin in her fishing attire against the blue sky backdrop of Alaska versus the suited, coiffed millionaire from Taxachusetts Mitt Romney. Sarah will be seen as plain-speaking (even though I have a hard time figuring what she means) against Mr. Sophisticate Mitt Romney.

Of course, this is all appalling and Democrats would be well warned not to egg on a Palin candidacy, in the horrible off-chance that the American people, so battered by the country's economic collapse,embrace simple and simplistic slogans and support a super American nationalism that is exclusionary and not pluralistic. The United States will remain the world's largest economy at least until 2025. Can you really imagine Sarah Palin sitting on top of a modern political economy? No one should even take the off chance, especially Democrats, for the sake of what remains of our country's future.

There are many objectionable things about Sarah Palin. Originally, I thought she was a libertarian, Alaskan nationalist who would bring spark to the dying McCain campaign. But, her politics is almost exclusively derived from a pernicious form of evangelical religion that, in its Alaskan form, believes the Rapture will occur in Wasilla, her hometown. The perfect comparison to her religious mindset is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. Substitute Jesus Christ for the Hidden Imam and it's almost a perfect fit. The final days will bring conflagration in the Middle East, particularly in Israel, which will bring the restoration of Jesus Christ as the lord of all--or the Hidden Imam if you are a Shi'ite Moslem. There are many problems with this but the primary issue is that both Palin and Ahmadinejad believe one's political actions and policies should act as triggering agents for this last Cosmic event.

Against this, Mitt Romney looks like white bread and even more dangerously he is a Morman, which the Palin evangelicals believe is a cult. News commentators who are still cowed by the right will shy away from investigating Palin's religious beliefs and her strange evangelical relationships. In one of her many exit interviews, she identifies with Queen Easter in the Old Testament, when she says "If I Die, I Die", a slogan of the more militant Christian evangelical groups currently recruiting in our military. In the primary campaign, it will be Palin supporters who will raise religious issues against Romney and put him on the defensive, while Sarah will get a free ride.

One of the most annoying habits of Sarah Palin is her chronic and habitual lying even over the most minor things. In yesterday's fishing interviews, she kept referring to the boat that Todd and his buddies built--even though within seconds Alaskan bloggers noted the boat was built in the state of Washington by a reputable boat builder. There was no result for this except if you always embellish the truth. Her statements she is saving Alaska milions of dollars in costs to pursue the ethics complaints against her is more spin than a outright lie.

But one thing is clear is that her declarations on who succeeds her--at least in the second position in Alaska is going to cost Alaskans plenty. Apparently, the Alaska legislature must be called back in session at a minumum cost of $60K a day and actually choose the Lt. Governor because, as uninterested she is in governing, her choice refused to serve because he earned more with a full military commission and could not have served unless he resigned his military rank. And no one knows then whether it is the legislature call for the next choice. As if to compound things, Sarah Palin couldn't even resign in a way that was efficient and made sense.

Palin retains a folkloric appeal and nothing she did or did not do as a 1/2 term Governor or full-term mayor of a small town--actually run by a city manager--will matter to her followers.

But one thing is clear--"In Your Guts, You Know She's Nuts"