Election 2010 Previews

Right now the Democrats have a 3 to 1 money lead over Republicans. But I suspect Republicans are waiting for the Supreme Court ruling on corporate donations to campaigns before going the full-tilt boogie.

But let's look at a few upcoming races next year. In the state of New York, a hampster could beat David Patterson for governor but the Republicans could only come up with Rich Lazio, who is trailing a governor with one of the lowest approval ratings in the land. If Andy Cuomo wins the Democratic primary, he crushes Lazio by a 3-1 margin. The GOP has had a tough time recruiting a candidate to challenge Kristin Gillibrand for the Senate, who has been raising money like gangbusters. Rudy Giuliani declined the run, probably ending his political career forever. Mentions of Pataki and Peter King as challengers seem just wishful thinking.

In Pennsylvania, it looks like Attorney-general Tom Corbett , the Republican, is walking away with the race. The senator race between Pat Toomey and Arlen Specter looks like the race for the ages.

Connecticut's Chris Dodd looked like a dead duck only a few months ago. But now he is only five down against former Rep. Simmons and tied with World Wrestling CEO Linda McMahon. Dodd plagued by scandal a year ago has earned some street cred with his service during the banking crisis and his taking over from Ted Kennedy on the Senate Health Committee. I expect by election time Senator Dodd will eek it out.

Republican establishment candidate Trey Grayson looks in trouble in Kentucky. Ron Paul's son, Rand Paul looks like he has galvanized the tea-baggers and is polling way ahead of Grayson.

In Texas, the Democrats look like they are putting together a power ticket for the state offices. Bill White for Governor, AFL-CIO Veep, Linda Chavez-Thompson for Lt. Gov., former Republican Carole Strayhorn for comptroller and the one and only Kinky Friedman for Agriculture Commissioner. Kinky ran for Governor last time as a third party candidate on the winning slogan," How Hard Can It Be?"

A preliminary look at the House races shows no dirth of candidates. One theme seems to be rage at incumbents--a hangover from the Bush days, just catching up with the rest of the country. Another theme seems to be a re-emphasis by some Republicans on local politics and not the national themes of either the RNC and the tea-baggers. The house races look all over the map at this early date with more primary activity than in past years in both parties. With the national environment in such turmoil there are no strong themes coming out in these early days. We'll look at this more in the months ahead but the Republicans look much more fragmented than the Democrats. Was Anna Marie Cox right on Rachel Maddow Show the other night that the tea baggers scare the average voter? We'll see.