Strange Doings on the Hustings

My reluctance to call the House has been because I keep hearing strange discordant notes that one picks up that run counter to the media narrative. It could well be that there will be a Republican tidal wave but it's not a done deal as of this hour.

Punditocracy claim the Republicans will pick up 50 to 60 seats tomorrow. This may be true but as of tonight there are 68 congressional districts, where candidates are separated by three points or less. In the eerily optimistic notes of both Tim Kaine and Chris Van Hollen that the Democrats will hold both the Senate and the House. They say it in a way unlike Karl Rove assuring Republicans in 2006. Also, why are Republicans planning on recounts in 50 districts if this isn't going down to the wire. A slight breeze in the Democrats' direction and the losses will not be as bad.

Reports are coming in on African-American voting and they are come out huge. In North Carolina, where now over 1 million have voted, they represent 20% of the vote, exactly the number there and are coming out at a higher rate than 2006.

The White House today reported that Hispanic early voting was up 13% over the 2006 mid-terms and that they may make a difference in Nevada, Colorado and California. And, maybe,in Texas. It also could prove pivotal for Democrats in Arizona congressional races.

Some of this may be spilling into the Pennsylvania race where the Republican is opening a lead on the Democrat for governor but Sestak has been hitting more stops than the Duracell bunny. Media coverage in the Philadelphia area report enthusiastic crowds at his final stops ,while very lackluster and sparse crowds at Pat Toomey's final rallies. Sestak needs a 400,000 vote margin coming out of Philadelphia to win. That's what to look for tomorrow night.

Dr. Michael McDonald of George Mason University said today that this year's midterms appear to be heading to the 90 million mark or 41.3% of registered voters. This would be the highest turnout in a mid-term in American history. Unfortunately, the only analogous mid-term was in 1994 when the republicans took the House and 41.2% of registered voters cast their ballots.

John Cornyn told the MSM that the Republicans would not win the Senate this year but will in 2012. He is sticking with the six-eight figure people are using. He has reason to be optimistic for 2012 because 20 Democrats will have to defend their seats.

In the little campaign that could, Scott McAdams is alive and well in Alaska. The latest Hays Research poll has Joe Miller at 27.1, Scott McAdams at 25.9%, and Lis Murkowski at 25.3% and 20% are undecided, the largest number undecided so late in the game. Don't wait up for this one. But it could be the upset of the night.

We have discrepancies in the Washington Senate race where PPP has Dino Rossi ahead of Patty Murray and , more importantly, ahead in the early voting. But Murray's GOTV is optimistic and she's waiting for the turnout from her base area.

John Nichols of the Nation claims that Russ Feingold is going to pull it out. Clearly biased, but a native of Wisconsin, he has been watching the Feingold campaign mobilizing students and claims the 35,000 Obama rally was a key component in bringing the young voters out. he also locates one area where Feingold always does well and must match his past numbers. He also points out that in the last election Feingold went to election day with 43% in the polls and won. He emphasizes that in Wisconsin you can register the day you vote, which may account for alot of the college voters.

After Obama's 2008 campaign, election observers said that elections would not be the same afterwards. They just may be right. David Plouffe now sounds prophetic when he said this year's races will come down to a few hundred or a thousand votes. At the end of the day, it will be interesting to see how effective the GOTV efforts were as against the huge 9 to 1 financial disadvantage the Democrats face.

Alot of the election work has been done under the radar and hasn't been covered by the media. In 2008, the media never covered how the Organizing for America campaign worked. An example from this year is that OFA never demobilized in Ohio, where Republicans are supposed to win big this year. We'll see whether the Republicans actually sweep there.

The New York Times mentioned that President Obama's last appearance in Cleveland,Ohio didn't fill the rafters in the basketball arena, a metaphor for the Democrats fate this year. However, the White House released a statement that the President has spoke to over 250,000 people at his campaign rallies. The President also had been to Ohio seven times in his short Presidency and only a few weeks before Cleveland drew 35,000 at a massive outdoor rally. So, we will have to wait to see how his candidates fare.

Occasionally on the screen you may have noticed former President Bill Clinton, who was in fine campaign form, delivering a positive message on behalf of the Democrats' agenda. He campaigned in states where Obama has less popularity but have large white working class constituencies. By now, he must have recorded over two dozen campaign stops.

At the beginning of the campaign, the Democrats said they had prepared to prevent another 1994. Almost all media have predicted they have failed in their job. There are too many intangibles yet to make that judgement. Have they learned from the Virginia governor's debacle and the Scott Brown freak show in Massachusetts. Apparently, the Attorney-General of Massachusetts announced today that their turnout would break a record.

On the negative side, all the Democrats' offices in New Hampshire did not have phone service today, the crucial GOTV day. In the previous election,Republican operatives were sentenced to jail for phone tampering. Here, Democrats are fighting off two Republican challenges for House seats and trying to keep the state house.

Normally a high turnout election favors Democrats. Republicans count on a low turnout of minorities, college students and low-income earners in a mid-term. They are banking on a majority of white males, the wealthier Americans, and now senior citizens (which doesn't make sense to me.) Usually the demographic spread in a mid-term favors Republicans, but the preliminary reports show that at least a good portion of Obama's base is turning out. The one area where the Democrats are getting killed is with Independents, who are moving toward Republicans by double-digits.

I'm not sure we will know who will win the House until late, if at all, tomorrow night. We do know the Republicans will win about 30 governorships. This is largely the handiwork of Haley Barbour, the Governor of Mississippi and former RNC chair. Until recently, Barbour has kept his head down and avoided all the controversy over the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Crossroads America.

One question I have is how effective are robocalls? Republicans are robocalling like crazy and lying like crazy about their opponent. I just hang up. Who listens and why do both parties use such an obnoxious campaign device? Some one must have done studies showing they work but I have never met anyone who ever admits it.

So Get Out The Vote. Drag your friends to the polls and call them. As Yogi said, "It's not over unti it's over."