Monday, February 14, 2011

Michael Scheuer's Osama Bin Laden

Michael Scheuer was the chief of the CIA's bin Laden unit from 1996 to 1999 and remained a counter-terrorism analyst until 2004. The Bin Laden unit was nicknamed the Manson Family and proposed such ideas as creating an ergonomically correct chair to cart Bin Laden back to the States for trial. Scheuer's first books slammed the Clinton Administration for failing on several occasions to assassinate bin Laden when they had a clear shot. He also bemoaned the role of neoconseravtives in pushing the Iraq War which only validated everything bin Laden ever said about America's true aims in the Islamic World.

In recent years Scheuer has shown up on television and appears to be demented, angry and frustrated as if he's the only one in the country who takes bin Laden's seriously. Most people have now turned to Peter Bergen as the bin Laden expert of choice. Bergen's latest book is "The Longest War: The Enduring Conflict between America and Al-Qaeda", which tracks the history of our conflict with bin Laden and suggests alternative strategies. Bergen is now a fellow at the New America Foundation and the security analyst for CNN.

However, having said that, Scheuer's "Osama Bin Laden"(Oxford 2011)is the best book on Bin Laden I've ever read. Its 183 page text is supplemented by 80 pages of notes and documents. It is simply the clearest and most succinct analysis of the person Bin Laden and the organization Al Qaeda I've ever read. Scheuer could use some media coaching to make himself more presentable for television and hence creditable to a wider audience.

Scheuer stands as one of the few bin Laden experts who reads and speaks Arabic fluently and as he reminds the reader he has read all 789 pages of bin Laden's known writings. He is appalled that other so-called experts seem not to have read bin Laden or thought about what he has said he wants to do with Al Qaeda. He feels without reading him the Western analysts have been manipulated by the Saudis, who have spun the story of bin Laden as the son gone wrong. Instead, as Scheuer writes, Osama bin Laden is the poster boy for the whole Saudi educational system.

Sometimes Scheuer reads like someone suffering from intellectual Stockholm Syndrome where the subject of analysis becomes the noble hero of the story. He reminds us that bin Laden is in the prime of his life and that his personal characteristics of bravery, courage, personal kindness and austerity have won the hearts of those closest to him and made him a genuine hero in the Islamic world. He asserts that bin Laden practices a form of "defense jihad" or Islamic Just War theory and that he believes he is fighting the occupation of the Arab World by Western powers and Israel. Scheuer goes into depth on how this "defensive jihad" works out in reality and explores the whole issue of Muslim victims in the fighting, an issue that turned the Iraqis against Al Qaeda during the war.

What Scheuer wants to convey is that the West must try and understand bin Laden and comprehend that he is a worthy opponent with a strategic mastery of the battlefield. He argues that unless we have a clear-headed view of his life and beliefs we will not understand how he has revolutionized warfare by creating a global organization that has synthesized terrorism and insurgent movements with a central command.

But that task of honestly evaluating him must begin with letting go of some myths created by both the Saudis and our own analysts. Scheuer claims that the bin Laden family for cultural reasons probably did not cut off his finances from the family company. Bin Laden has no serious health problems such as the legend about kidney disease and having a dialysis machine. Mullah Omar did have tactical differences with bin Laden but would never in his lifetime betray him. No bin Laden did not go bad because of the influence of the Egyptians on his thought. Yes, bin Laden was a loyal Saudi until the Gulf War, where he had warned the Saudis against Saddam Hussein and offered to build a frontier to prevent an invasion of the Arabian peninsula. Instead, the Saudis asked for American military troops to be stationed for the first time on the holy land. Also, Bin Laden is not isolated--some of the terrain he lives in has been his home for decades and he has extensive contacts throughout Pakistan, Saudi Arabia,Yemen, the Sudan and Afghanistan.

Scheuer is especially good in examining the various religious thinkers bin Laden had made contact with and been educated by, such as the exiled Muslim Brotherhood who taught in Saudi schools. Bin Laden also has been outspoken all his life on the corruption of Arab politics and even participated in the creation of a non-violent reform moment in Saudi Arabia.

Scheuer points out that Bin Laden does want to destroy Israel and the United States. One of the ways he thought he could destroy the United States was to bankrupt it by forcing it to react to Al Qaeda's actions, which he has come close to achieving. Scheuer is sharp in his criticism of our invasion of Iraq, which he said validated everything Bin Laden ever said about our intentions in the Middle East. But Iraq also became the place where Bin Laden made an atrocious blunder in appointing to the head of Al Qaeda Iraq a person who wanted to start the war against the Shia also, something Bin Laden is also committed to. Scheuer makes it plain that Bin Laden held the Shia in contempt and especially the Islamic regime in Tehran because they failed to implement any of their plans against Israel successfully. The whole neo-con theme of an bin Laden-Tehran alliance Scheuer terms ludicrous.

Scheuer, I believe, gets the whole Al Qaeda global strategy right. Bin Laden always uses indignous forces as the leaders of the local branches and supplements them with foreign backups, who must subordinate their own views to the local leaders but remain in contact with Al Qaeda central. Scheuer does a masterful job of outlining the internal organization of Al Qaeda Central and how it has studied and mastered modern media. Bin Laden's obsession with the media began with the role Saudi media played during the Afghanistan conflict. Also, Bin Laden is extremely flexible in terms of his tactics and does not always act out his maximalist dreams and plans.

What will be interesting is to hear from Bin Laden about the Egyptian Revoution.

No he does not envy our freedoms, he has made it clear he hates them.

This is one short book that is really worth the read. Hopefully Michael Scheuer will calm down now. He did a superb job.

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