Tuesday, February 1, 2011

They'll Selling Postcards at the Hanging

Over 2 million have gathered at Cairo's Liberation Square to demand the end of the Mubarak regime. Hosni Mubarak is 82 years old, has been in power for 30 years, and has siphoned off $40 billion for himself and his family. Put a fork in him, he's done.

Whatever is going on in Egypt, it's about the Egyptians and not me or you. But a successful democratic revolution would have the effect of liberating us from the remains of the Cold War structure in the Middle East. This morning King Abdullah of Jordan dismissed his government. The Ben Ali regime in Tunisia has already been toppled by the Jasmine Revolution. There are riots in Morocco against King Hassan and student riots against the regime in Khartoum. Yemen is experiencing demonstrations and protests aimed at toppling the regime. And Syria is looking on the whole scene very warily.

If the Egyptians succeed, expect to see the fire spread across the rest of North Africa and into the Saudi peninsula. Then we will not have to support autocratic regimes anyway in the world. What a relief!

So far the Egyptian protests have been dominated by secular youths, who are stranded in a culture which doesn't provide any opportunity. Only today do we see the Muslim Brotherhood begin to play a role in organizing the demonstrations and that may be more in Alexandria. So far they have played a very cautious game, knowing that they have become the boogey-men in Egyptian politics and throughout the world. From the view of Egyptians themselves, the Muslim Brotherhood is seen as too old, too antiquated and simply not with it. After the run of Islamist movements, maybe the Middle East has settled down for some real democratic change for a while.

The American response may not be as enthusiastic as supporters of the demonstrators may want. But how do you throw an ally under the table gracefully and not encouraged a replay of the Iranian Revolution? So far, the Egyptian military probably the most trusted institution in the country has sent all the right signals, vowing not to use force on the demonstrators and publicly acknowledging the rightness of their demands. There is even some talk about a senior military official taking control temporarily until a democratic transition can be put in place.

The Israelis are having heart attacks. After deliberately alienating their closest ally, Turkey, through some public displays of undiplomatic behavior and then the attack on the Gaza Freedom Flotilla, Israel is left with only the 82-year old Egyptian President as their sole remaining friend in the Middle East. This discomfort has been channeled through the various commentaries in the United States. Egyptian opposition figure, Mohammed El Baradei is accused of being a puppet of Iran and then the Muslim Brotherhood. Mike Huckabee appeared yesterday before the Knesset to denounce the Egyptian events. Others like Roger Cohen of the Washington Post,Dick Morris on Fox News and some leading officials of major Jewish organizations have warned of an imminent threat by the Brotherhood. It's simply too late in the game to scare anyone.

The leadership of both our parties are trying to play this straight and encouraging a transition in Egypt. But the Right never disappoints. Red State blamed the demonstrations on ....drumroll... Bill Ayers, who apparently had been in Egypt protesting on behalf of the Gaza flotillas months back. They also blamed the State Department and our trade union movement. Rush Limbaugh and other right-wing talk show hosts claimed that President Obama had supported the demonstrators for the past two years and was plotting a Muslim Brotherhood take-over in Egypt since the time of his Cairo speech. Christwire called on their leader, Sarah Palin, to urge an American invasion of Egypt to present the status quo. Glenn Beck said that this was like Sarajevo--referring to WWI, not the Bosnian conflict. According to his worldview, Russia will make a mad sweep and take over Europe and the Chinese will seize the Persian Gulf to trigger cataclysmic change in the world.

There is no right time for change. It happens when people are no longer afraid of a repressive regime and stand up. I wish them all the luck in the world and hope Egypt becomes a democratic state. The ripple effects of such an event around the region would be a welcomed change from the political stalemates that exist in most Middle East and North African countries. It seems groups like Al Qaeda are left high and dry by these developments. Al Qaeda even complained in Yemen that the demonstrations were a Christian-Shiite conspiracy.

Maybe we'll see King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia hanging from lampposts one of these days. That is one show I want to see.

I've spent the last few days listening to the talking heads and our networks trying to explain what's going on. The only people who seem to make any sense are the people at Al Jazeera, who have soared in their coverage and established themselves as this age's new CNN. To them,I take my hat off. Unfortunately, the American coverage remainded me of a time five years ago when I had an epiphany while listening to NPR that no one in D.C. knew what they were talking about. Apparently, it's still true.

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