Friday, April 12, 2013

KISS--Keep It Simple, Stupid

++President Obama's proposals on Social Security and Medicare are stupid both politically and policy-wise. As anyone who has read this blog over the last few years knows,I maintain Social Security has absolutely nothing to do with deficits or debt. Untouched it would pay out 100% of benefits until 2036 to 8, and then without change pay out less but a considerable percentage for the future. The Chained CPI gratuitously penalizes Americans who depend on social security for the bulk of their retirement. The fantasy that 501-K accounts or the vanishing pensions will supplement Social Security is largely a myth now after the Great Collapse of 2008. 

++President Obama's mistake was he presumed he could get the House Republicans to deal responsively and that his wonky solution was comprehensible to the average American.

++How long do you want a Social Security fix to last at this stage? Americans overwhelmingly support lifting the FICA cap. You could lift the FICA cap for all income levels and cut the tax rate, thereby giving the average American a tax break. This option would probably generate too much income into Social Security but it would secure it for at least another generation or more. It also is readily understandable.

++The result of President Obama's gambit is to give the Republicans--who have never liked Social Security--a campaign edge for 2014 and depress the turnout of the Democratic base, which always is lower in a mid-term election. I have read columns by pundits saying that President Obama has boxed the GOP in and that since the CPI is dead on arrival,it will bargain a better budget deal. I don't believe it. Besides the sequester, which is Boehner's, is now the property of President Obama as the hurt starts being felt. John Boehner's memo to the Republican House about keeping the sequester to punish Obama is still operative.

++President Obama's innate moderation produces wonky solutions such as Obamacare, which the Administration has failed to explain adequately about its implementation. My family has benefited immensely from it but few realize its benefits unless they are confronted with a crisis. Obamacare will again be an election issue in 2014.

++The fight over Social Security obscures other elements in the Obama budget which would have the indirect effect of paving the way toward a new economy. Buried in it are the fragments of the past Jobs Act, which never got passed, and investment in future technologies, which trickled through the original stimulus package. The Obama administration is still pushing for significant infrastructure investment, coupled with matching investments from the private sector. 

++A personal favorite of mine is the allocation of funds for a final vote on the status of Puerto Rico,an issue that has lingered without resolution for decades,much like the Indian Trust Case from the first term.

++The punditocracy opines that President Obama has already made himself a lame duck. It is interesting that these columns come out at the same time that polls have been released that show the American public are now ready for comprehensive immigration reform and that only 12% of Americans believe that undocumented should never have a path to citizenship. At last notice, Senator Rubio has gotten over his temper tantrum and is now on board the draft bill that will be presented in the Senate. This would hardly be an insignificant achievement for President Obama.

++Contrary to enthusiasts for gun control, the victory the other day was simply winning a cloture vote in the Senate. There will be another one. Despite the background checks gaining bipartisan support, the NRA is gearing up to defeat it in the House. The NRA is already salting the legislation with loopholes that they will come back on and declare that the legislation doesn't work. Any type of gun control will be a major victory since it has been 20 years since any such regulation passed.

++Yesterday was an astonishing vote in the House. Every single Republican voted against pay equality. That is stunning. 100% of American women earn less than their male counterpart. For a party that claimed the need for outreach, this was a strange move.

++Virginia's the Cooch just passed today more regulations to thwart abortion providers in the state. The war against women's reproductive rights continues unabated. Arkansas outlawed sex ed in high school--a great move--and defunded Planned Parenthood, another great move. Already states have introduced over 600 bills to limit reproductive rights.

++The Religious Right is blackmailing the RNC meeting in Hollywood, California. Insisting they would not support Republicans if they moderated their stances on abortion,same-sex marriage, gay rights, they were assured by Rinse Penis that the party platform would remain the same. However,the Family Policy Research Council, just to make sure, has requested its members not to donate to the party but only to candidates who hold their views.

++The social conservatives will get funkier this year and the next as it becomes obvious that they are so far out of line from where the American public is. For the first time, a solid majority of Americans support the legalization of abortion and 70% want Roe v. Wade to remain law. While a solid majority--58%--favor same sex marriage--with much larger majorities among the young--over two-thirds of Republicans are against it. 

++Remember we have the decisions on same sex marriage to look forward to--maybe as early as June--and the probability that the Supreme Court will over- rule the Voting Rights Act and affirmative action.

++Expect Delaware to be the next state to pass same sex marriage. 

++Finally, congratulations to my son for raising his production fees on Kickstarter.com and recording his first CD during Spring break on Sly Stone's soundboard. 

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