Whither the GOP?

++Senator Pat Toomey basically summed up the failure of his background check bill by saying the Republicans basically hated President Obama and would do nothing to assist him in getting anything he wants.

++Howard Dean thought the latest RNC ad criticizing President Obama for not leading was a loser and that politically when your approval rating is in the low 20s you can't run negative ads and expect any bounce. Howard, whom I have met several times in the last few years, is a shrewd and wise student of politics. In his conversation with Lawrence O'Donnell last night,he asserted that the GOP is deaf in hearing what the public wants or is interested in. Dean is supported by GOP operatives who deeply fear the party will fail to pass an immigration bill and will get behind the curve on gay rights. What Howard Dean didn't mention is that the next GOP presidential nominee will be running against a white person and not President Obama. Right now it looks like they might be running against a white woman and they haven't even addressed the women's issues.

++David Frum ,the creator of the Axis of Evil, thinks that the GOP will not go for "competence" or their governors next time. The reason for this is that the campaign against government means that the next nominee is unlikely to advocate for any role of government in our society except for defense. Frum points out that the 2012 elections showed that conservatives are a minority in this country now and that they will circle the wagons for someone they like and advocate their point of view even if they court defeat. With this in mind Frum looks at their younger stars in Congress--Senators Cruz, Rubio, Paul, and Paul Ryan. As he points out, none of them have any executive experience. Of course, historically,in my lifetime only two Senators ever made it to the White House without a stop in between--Barack Obama and John F. Kennedy.

++The Right-wing emails I get are relatively silent on national security issues, except for the incident in Benghazi. Instead, they have stepped up against abortion,immigrants and taxes. They are relatively silent on gay rights and same sex marriage. Instead,they relay opinions by Catholic Bishops on the latter with no comment. On gun rights the volume is over the top,advocating arming teachers and providing security forces for schools. The two new bugaboos surpassing San Francisco and New York City are Chicago and Philadelphia. Racism emerges with analyses of inner city problems.

++The Big 2014 campaign issues seem to be emerging--another run at Obamacare and promises to repeal it and linking immigration reform to another type of Obamacare. As President Obama pointed out in his press conference, 85% of those people already insured are enjoying the benefits of Obamacare like my family is. The Republican governors reluctance to extend Medicaid, which is the vehicle for insuring the poor,will be one problem but the insurance exchanges  will be solved,ironically by the national changes. The problem is that there is still vast ignorance of Obamacare by those very people who would most benefit from it. 

++The two aspects of the 2014 elections that benefit Republicans are the possibility of a lower turnout than the general election and the gerrymandering that preserves the House incumbents. Without changing their tune, Republicans might weather 2014 at a national level OK and might come close to taking the Senate. But they will have set them up for a Big Fail in 2016, which historically should be their turn.

++It is the first time in my lifetime that the GOP is genuinely a post-policy party. It virtually believes nothing and have no one capable of developing any sophisticated policy options for the serious problems the country faces. 

++On the culture wars, the GOP doomed itself by embracing the Religious Right and the Catholic Church. Younger people want tolerance and the majority of Americans favor same sex marriage, better gun control, immigration reform,medical marijuana, and abortion. That doesn't mean the phalanx of right-wing billionaires can't buy the election and massive voter suppression will not occur. But the thrill is gone. The GOP has maneuvered itself into a position at odds with the silent majority.

++The promise of the GOP governors has faded. Kasich, Corbett,Brownback,Snyder, Walker, Jindal,Scott and Haley now are drowning with approval ratings in the mid-30s at best. The Party has basically drummed out Chris Christie because he will not back away from his praise of President Obama's assistance on Hurricane Sandy.

++The overwhelming fear of grass roots Republicans is the demographic winter--the day whites will only be the largest plurality, not majority in the country. Expect them to throw up as many roadblocks for minorities in the next few years as they can.