Obama's Masterful Speech--The Guns of August

++When news that the Assad regime used chemical weapons on its population, the UK, France, Germany,Turkey,the Arab League and the United States said they should be punished. By today, it was down to France, the old colonial master of Syria,Canada and the United States. Prime Minister Cameron lost the parliamentary vote to use military force, the first such loss by a British Prime Minister since 1782. And Russian Prime Minister Putin thought the charge was ridiculous.

++President Obama spent the week giving informal interviews on the issue of Syria, with a specific reference on his concerns about proliferation and the challenge the use of such weapons placed on an international community, which has banned the use of such weapons after WWII. 

++John Kerry made one statement about the use of these weapons and then yesterday made a speech outlining the specific intelligence that enabled the United States to make its conclusions. The intelligence was ranked "High Confidence", which is one step below "Certain". The assessment was that communications intercepts located the specific instructions and preparations to use the weapons and the specific units commanded to carry the operation out.

++During the last few days, it was clear from the reactions from the Left and the Right that the ghosts of W and Cheney hang over the whole enterprise. Those who are against intervention question the information about chemical weapons, likening Kerry speech to Colin Powell's speech on WMD's to the United Nations. Powell's Chief of Staff, Col. Larry Wilkinson said, "It was deja vu all of again". 

++The difference in my opinion is that with Iraq we were talking about hypothetical WMDs, which never materialized, and here we are talking about the actual use of WMDS with vivid, graphic use of videos of adults and children dying.

++During the last two days, both President Obama and Senator Kerry briefed scores of congressmen in the Senate and the House. Nancy Pelosi and Dianne Feinstein came out for actions against Assad as did Senator Franken. One thought that was it. The President did his due diligence, briefed Congress, now he could make his decision and presumably act unilaterally. But House Republicans with 20 Democrats sent the President a letter demanding congress authorize military force, a situation that didn't occur under the prior administration.

++Comments, blogs and the punditocracy commented that Obama got himself in trouble previously by saying chemical weapons were a redline,the military was skeptical about the effectiveness of any action and progressives warned Obama about his campaign promises of changing a page for the the United States in the Middle East. 

++Everyone used their favorite analogies. Is this the beginning of World War I again, the first steps in a regional conflagration? Is this Kossovo or Iraq? The major points of agreement were that Syria was now a failed state torn apart by ethnic and sectarian strife and that any American intervention would make it worse, bring in Iranians and encourage attacks on neighboring countries. The week's discussions were about the various forms of Armaggedon about to occur.

++So today was the day. President Obama addressed the press corps. He had made his decision. He would authorize military strike of a limited nature and time frame. There would be no invasion. There would be no boots on the ground. Yesterday he had said the actions would not be aimed at "regime change". Today, he asserted he had the President right to embark on the decision even if the United Nations Security Council did approve.  He said the U.S. military was in position and that actions were not time specific. They could take place in days, weeks or  months. 

++He admitted the American public was war weary. He said the United States remained committed to the Syrian opposition, the refugees and to a government of reconciliation. He said he would take his message to the American public.

++President Obama said that these issues were too big for business as usual. He argued that we spent the years after WWII creating international norms to govern states' behavior and that the Syrian situation was a challenge to the United States and the international community. He said that not doing anything would have consequences and that people advocating this should be aware of the message to countries who aim to create nuclear weapons and proliferate biological warfare. He said he would be urging our international partners to politically stand behind us.

++He ended his statement by saying that this is not a partisan issue or who is in the White House. He urged Congress to vote on whether the United States would meet its commitments. He said it was time for Congress to take ownership of how America acts overseas.

++ The immediate aftermath was that Harry Reid wanted to call the Senate back into session and end their recess immediately to debate and vote on the measure. John Boehner issued a statement by the House Republicans that they would get around to it September 9th when recess ends.

++The blogosphere immediately applauded President Obama adroitly putting this on the back of Congress and ,depending on your politics, saying he basically wants it to fail. Personally, I don't agree. 

++The one very interesting effect this challenge to Congress will have is to trigger open warfare within the GOP between the isolationists and the internationalists. And it will be interesting to see whether the GOP wants to extract concessions from the President to even hold a vote. The repercussions for the GOP will be very serious.

++Finally, whether you are for intervening or not, there should be agreement that the United States must step up the humanitarian efforts for the Syrian refugees, now numbering over 1.5 million spread over Turkey,Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.