Monday, September 12, 2016

I know Nate,Dailykos, Talking Points Have Hillary weakening BUT

++Sam Wang stands strong with Hillary at 324 Evs and Trump 214. She's still at 83 to 90% odds while Nate Silver has her down.

++Nate says the battleground states are tightening but his colleague Harry Etten says Trump's momentum has stalled.

++Now I read someone's post at Dailykos which raises questions about today's JMC poll of Florida. The post suggests non-white Americans will constitute about 32% of the electorate this year. Whether Hispanics or Asian-Americans , robocalls penalize the non-English speaking. The post also suggests the demographic breakdown in the Florida poll doesn't not capture the African-Americans or the full Hispanic representation. He cites the dire polling of Trump among the different groups and finds in this JMC much higher support--better than Romney among Hispanics and African-Americans. Impossible. No single poll should sway you but the post was a healthy reminder that in states with large non-white blocs pay particular attention to how the poll was conducted and what % non-shite play. 

++States where this plays are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada,Florida,and even North Carolina. Expect Clinton to be a point or so under where she really is.

No comments:

Post a Comment