Friday, September 23, 2016

IS THIS EXPERT OPINION WE SHOULD TRUST?

++Martin Longman chides Allan Lichtman's claim he predicted every election since 1984. Longman points out that the only difficult one was actually 2004--which I got right. He says he would be more impressed if you predicted the World Series winner in the middle of September since 1984. That would be impressive. 

++Actually I find Lichtman's Trump prediction disturbing because he uses a non-poll base for his forecasts. This particular year, he said Obama had no foreign policy successes. What is the Paris Climate Change Accords? He also puts the onus on the incumbent party which works in normal politics. But what if the challenger is beyond the pale and unsuited for public office? That doesn't compute. 

++But just because I hope he's wrong, I don't dismiss his work. Longman points out though he doesn't have a long track record or sample to choose from.  We'll see. I don't know his 2000 prediction-if it was Bush,he's for of wrong; if it was Gore he's sort of right.

++I like Dick Morris'prediction before the last election that Obama suffered from such severe depressions he won't run again. 

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