NATE SILVER: Clinton leading in States she needs to.

++Nate Silver gives Hillary 272 and says she is strong in states where she needs to be but she can't afford to lose Democratic states or else she would end up with 269. He explains her strengths which are strong but also the pitfalls. He says she has polling poor to middling in battleground states.

++Nancy LeTourneau at Washington Monthly this morning--since deleted--argued that the Clinton campaign has more flexibility than Trump. She cites Ed Kilgore,writing up a storm at New York Magazine, about how Hillary has a strategy for early voting that is being carried out. In North Carolina, this is better by far the 2012 Democratic votes and in Iowa it is superior to the Republicans but not as good as 2012. In no cases is Trump winning these early voting states, which are 26. LeTourneau points out that Trump by outsourcing his ground game forces the RNC in a box and it is not conceivable that local Republican parties will give money to another in a different part of the country. But Hillary with a money advantage--two days ago the Washington Post said her advantage was $50 million--allows Brooklyn to respond quickly to take advantage of a situation. 

++Josh Marshall at Talking Points said that Hillary is not sweeping the field because she is not running on a strong, cutting edge theme and also that their is fatigue with Democrats after they occupiers the White House for 16 out of 24 years. Josh would like to remind you it is the Supreme Court, Supreme Court, Supreme Court.

++Chris Drezner in the Washington Post writes that he will not panic as Nate Silver suggested last week. He says the droopy Hillary polls come when Democrats think she has it locked up but then when they think Trump might actually have a chance they bounce back. The same applies to Catherine Rampell's piece on millennials. Millennials says that Hillary Clinton will win at a greater percentage than older voters and they think they can cast a vote for a protest candidate. But she thinks that they will come back to Hillary in greater numbers than they indicate now. Drezner says that Trump creates the conditions for Hillary's comeback because he gets to mainstream and then flips out. Like on his renunciation of birtherism but today he said he just did it as a convenience. Harry Etten at 538 says Hillary's comeback is rubbish. The polls don't quite show it.