Thursday, September 22, 2016

WHERE ARE WE?

++I think Hillary's victory will not be as massive as I had thought or wished. I still think the Republican state apparatus in North Carolina, especially after the riots in Charlotte,the Ohio government and the Florida regime of Gov. Scott and Pam Bondi will make it doubly hard for the democrats. 

++But in Florida, the head GOP Hispanic donor has given Hillary $2 million for her Hispanic outreach and Pat Stier, billionaire and climate change fanatic ,has given her another $20 million for outreach. The recent polls haven't been bad but I don't think they factor in the size of the Hispanic community, which also includes 1 million Puerto Ricans. We've seen that the Hispanic polls show Tump with a slightly higher % than among Hispanics in other states but way below--almost by a half--Romney's vote.

++Hillary's problem in Florida seems to be among whites,especially working class whites. 

++The same can be said with her problem in Nevada but we haven't seen a poll that adequately reflects the Hispanic vote there. Among Hispanic polls, she approaches the margin she has with African Americans around the country. 

++And we don't see the crushing numbers--yet--from white women. You would think with a shot at being the first woman President, there would be more solidarity than we've seen. Sexism is alive among women too. Since women represent 54% of the electorate, this may be their best chance to break the last glass ceiling in American politics.

++You may have noticed that Aggregators have the Democrats coming up short in the Senate. It is not over yet. But the recent difference is that the GOP billionaires have bailed on Trump and focused on the Senate races. It looks like they have knocked out Governor Strickland in Ohio, who was hampered by being governor during the crash and his campaign wasn't able to fight back until recently. On the other hand,Russ Feingold has staved off blistering attacks from the Koch Brothers. 

++I'm hoping for a surprise in North Carolina. This blog wrote it before,no one knows what Senator Burr does in this town and why he is re-elected. It looks like Katie McGinty might knock off Pat Toomey. And I still see Tammy Duckworth knocking off Mark Kirk in Illinois. And the Evan Bayh race has tightened although he remains in the lead. 

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