Hillary Clinton has a 48.1% lead to Trump's 46.6%. I believe Clinton will win the popular vote close to Obama's '12 victory over Romney. Her 2.5 million lead can only go up.
I also don't believe Jill Stein's recounts are going to change the electoral college but are a valuable lesson on this election.
I believe whether the recounts show it or not that Hillary Clinton won Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. And about North Carolina I believe it was closer than reported.
That would tell a different story than the one we read in the press. If you haven't ,listen to Van Jones' speech in Ontario about why Trump won. It was posted on Democraticunderground. He says that the Democratic Party turned down black groups who asked for money. I just know of one specific case about this and they were horrified. The black community said they needed more money to organize and get out the vote. Voto Latino,the major millennial Hispanic group, simply ran out of money. Van Jones said that the Clinton campaign ran anti-Trump ads after the news carried Trump saying the same things,instead of ads on issues. Party true.
But before we jump to conclusions,we should look at Clinton's performance in Pennsylvania. She surpassed the goals in Philadelphia and the suburbs and won Alleghany and Pittsburgh. She may or may not haven't fallen short in the middle of the state, which we were assured won't matter. But the results are strange. This area is not simply rural,farm areas but are also small cities. The Trump margin looks too big to be real.
The same in Florida,the Florida watchers still think it was mathematically impossible for her to lose the state after her huge lead in early voting.
And in Michigan, the Detroit figures are laughably wacky and vastly underreports Clinton's strength. It is not enough for Times stories about young black millennials not voting to make any sense of this.
Wisconsin,I can believe because of all the nasty election business with Scott Walker but the margin is not surmountable.
Yes,the result is horrifying but is it real. Reports came today from people at the North Carolina DMV that said the computer glitches and failure to record registrations hit urban areas of North Carolina,especially black zones. It is no wonder McCory is asking for a recount because his guys were supposed to push him over the top. I suspect there were some Republicans that thought he had to be removed so they didn't rig it his way.
Why is all this important? Because next time the GOP will pull it all the way out and make not excuses for rigging the vote.
But as the Wisconsin Gazette editorialized, Trump may have won the electoral college but he doesn't have the mandate or legitimacy. Frankly ,I'm not sure he did win the electoral college.
Friday, November 25, 2016
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