TPM's Josh Marshall has a podcast which brings in brainy people to discuss the current political situation. The podcast in question was an interview with Josh Green of Bloomberg News who has good sources in the Trump world.
Green talks about how Trump won and when his analytical people knew. One of the issues was that 2012 exit polls were worse than the ones before and skewed the polling for 2016. The 2012 exit polls had the electorate younger and less white than it was. President Obama won over the rural white working class which Hillary did not.
These are people graded 04, 55-year old,infrequent voting whites. The other is the division that hurt Hillary in Florida was older English-speaking Hispanic voters, which made the difference there.
Green went down to San Antonio before the election to see Trump's analytic team. Trump had more people in San Antonio than at Trump Tower. The analytic team were a bunch of astrophysists called the Cambridge Aanlytica, funded by billionaire Mercer and who are predominantly right-wing.
At the time of his visit they ran thousands of simulations and found Trump only had 7.8% chance of winning. Their percentage was less than Nate Silver. Trump was losing Flirida and Ohio then.
However they noticed by October 18th that in the early voting blacks were down and rural, white voters were up. They felt that polls were undercounting the white vote and tore everything up and made a much whiter model. Even then Trump only had a 30% chance by election night.
But they ordered Trump to fly to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The results were that white votes were 10% above their model.
Hillary did what she had to do in Philadelphia but lost the state with Obama's white working class in the middle of the state.
Did the Comey letter affect the race? as The Clinton camp complained. It did in Michigan and in Pennsylvania. About by 2% in each state.
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