Searching for the GOP nominee for 2012

CNN just published a poll of the favorites for the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee. Huckabee stands at 22%;Palin and Romney at 21%; Gingrich at 13% and Jeb Bush in single figures. While it's 30 months out from the election, it's fun to conduct thought experiments on the subject. Remember we just experienced the longest presidential campaign in history because of the contested Democratic primaries and there's no reason to believe next time will be any different. So, the candidates must put the foundation in place--the grass-roots organization and the funding in 2010 to make a serious run for it.

Republicans have rules of their own. They favor people who have run before for the nomination or a national campaign. Their primaries are winner-take-all. The base of the party is now extremely right-wing. McCain won last time by encouraging Huckabee to split the conservative vote to deny Romney the title. This time around we have no Nelson Rockefeller to challenge Goldwater or a moderate wing of the party. It's an all-white, conservative electorate.

The first three states up are Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. The Iowa Republican base is heavily dominated by the evangelicals. The New Hamsphire base is dominated by libertarian/ conservatives. The South Carolina base is dominated by the neo-confederate, evangelical base. Staking out the turf, Mitt Romney has moved his family residence to New Hampshire, where he has had a summer home for years.

For media coverage, both Mike Huckabee and New Gingrich have regular gigs on Fox News and Gingrich prides himself on how often he can get major media coverage. Mitt Romney has started responding to every Obama initiatives and appeared at the Heritage Foundation last week to critique Obama's national security policies. Huckabee and Gingrich showed up yesterday at a Virginia convention of evangelicals to encourage them to get further involved in politics so that Christianity remains a force in America. Newt even proclaimed we "are all surrounded by pagans". Newt even managed to leak out how Sarah Palin's speeches were plagiarized from his. he clearly sees where the direct threat is coming from.

Sarah Palin has a memoir coming out and has appeared at selected events such as the pro-life convention in Indiana and at the NRA's annual meeting. But she has been laying low on the national media. Despite all the ridicule and controversy over her daughter Bristol serving as the voice for abstinence, this only keeps her in the news without being directed at her.

I happen to believe the odds-on favorite in the race will be Sarah Palin. Mitt will have to win New Hampshire simply to stay alive. Once Obama selected Jon Huntsman, the Governor of Utah, as his ambassador to China, the Republicans are not left with any candidates that might be considered able to govern. But, that's besides the point: Democrats aim to govern; Republicans aim to power.

The basic theme for the 2012 election will be a re-run of anti-Washington populism, a paean to the small businessman,the defense of God, Guns and anti-gays and pro-life, and a nationalism for the "real Americans". The love of the big businessman and the rich will be muted because the Republican base doesn't trust the economic elite either. It will not be a friendly environment for Mitt Romney, who would have advantages on the issue of managing the economy because of his private sector experience. Romney's mormonism also is a problem with the evangelicals who regard his religion as a cult. He is an establishment candidate and the next election will not favor the establishment.

The question one has to ask is,"Who is the anti-Obama?" Newt Gingrich is viewed as a morally flawed man through this three marriages, a blowhard and an old war horse, who may have some residual influence within the Beltway but is no longer considered the voice of future conservatism. Mike Huckabee is appealing, which would make him a very dangerous candidate but even among evangelicals there is a reservation about him being a former pastor. The only one the base is convinced will not flinch from proclaiming the "truth about Obama" is Sarah Palin.

As I have written before, she touches all the bases and has shown she can mobilize the base of the party and perhaps even bring in the small right-wing parties, who have attracted more attention since the collapse of the Republicans in 2008. She is right in line with the 10th Amendment movement by her association with the Alaska Secessionist Movement, and her husband's membership in the group. She has virtually no idea that government might perform a useful function. She is anti-environment and absolutely pro-oil and gas development. She has been vocal in being against Obama's stimulus package. She is an end-timer who believe the ultimate conflict is coming in the Middle East and for those reasons is pro-Israel. She is an absolutist on the second amendment and against abortion. And her biography is anti-elitist and non-corporate. And she has unvaunted ambition. The fat cats in the conservative movement believe she's even better than Reagan. She combines an appeal to Ron Paul libertarianism with social conservativism.

All the negatives are plusses. Her anti-intellectualism brings her in line with the base, who deplore people educated at elite universities. Her hunting, fishing and outdoorsy nature makes her the heartthrob of conservative men--her primary appeal. All the family messes and brushes with the law are simply part and parcel of the travails of today's average American family. That the major media despise her is absolute gold. Her Christianist ideology is in line with George W. Bush and even Ronald Reagan. She believes her role in government is to bring the end-time closer. And as someone who aspired to be a model, she has sex appeal, which has a limited shelf life. Part of this also is that she would be a first--which would be a moral equivalence to Obama's first. She is the perfect candidate for a dystopian America, an America where everyone has a series of part-time jobs and the social welfare system has been shredded. It's the Northern Exposure version of "rural chic". And a country facing hard times might find that too tempting.