Virginia and New Jersey 2009--predictors for 2010?

Historically, the president's party takes a beating on a mid-term election during bad economic circumstances. Yesterday, the Tan Man, Rep. Boehner wailed about the current unemployment numbers and the hardship the Middle Class is facing as the Democrats spend and spend money and sink the country deeper in debt. The music is being written for 2010 now. Republicans are banking on past history and the fact that Americans should be amnesic by the time 2010 comes around about how we got into this mess in the first place. Karl Rove is already saying that unemployment should rise further and last until the first of 2010, thereby giving Republicans an advantage to peddle their new "small government" philosophy.

But interestingly, Charles Cook and other pundits are agreeing with my assessment of months ago that Democrats look like they actually might gain at least 1 seat and possibly 4-5 in the Senate and lose about 12 in the House. So, basically 2010 looks like a wash and no great harbinger of a Republican comeback.

However, Republicans are banking on victories in New Jersey and Virginia governor races this year to create the illusion of a recovery and to recruit stronger candidates for 2012. Karl Rove is already saying that these two victories would shake the Obama White House and might predict a one-term presidency. Despite the hype, you can get where the Echo Machine and radio air bombardment will go if this occurs.

In reality, the Republican race in New Jersey is actually a negative campaign against Corzine. The Virginia race is peculiar in that Republican candidate Bob McDonnell, the former Attorney-General, is trying to co-opt the slogans of the upbeat Obama campaign, including the slogan "Yes, We Can". Both races, it seems to me, are experiments by the Republicans to determine which works best--the relentless negative campiagn by Christie in New Jersey or the positive, results-oriented campaign by McDonnell. If Terry McAuliffe wins the Democratic primary, you can expect one of McDonnell's sub-themes will be about carpet-baggers.

As for great Republican fund-raising races in 2010, look for big bucks to go after Chris Dodd in Connecticut, Harry Reid in Nevada and John Murtha in Pennsylvania. It will depend on the Republican challengers in the New York race whether this will become a big donor contest. The same applies to the Pennsylvania Senate race. If it's Toomey versus Specter, it will be heavy right-wing money. If it's Sestak versus Toomey, it will be heavy Republican and right-wing money to secure the seat. Republican Bill McCollum looks real weak as the Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida.

It seems to me that the Obama administration will have to speed delivery on the stimulus money so as to show results. But the counter to this is that many state governments themselves are collapsing from debt and having to cut back on services, which may well negate any gains from the stimulus projects.