Tuesday, October 12, 2010

The Continuing War against America

Karl Rove is still fuming about being attacked by the White House. Yesterday he called on President Obama to release his enemies list. Bob Gibbs had fun in saying they didn't have one so now Karl Rove can release the names of his donors. Rove claimed that President Obama wasn't concerned about the donors of Think Progress, who are all openly known. Rove was trying a dog-whistle here about George Soros, which the Chamber had already used. Unfortunately for Rove, George Soros told the New York Times on a separate matter that he was n o longer getting involved in elections in the United States and could not stop the Republican avalanche. The Washington punditry tried to downplay the charges against the Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove but outside the beltway the charges are sticking.

We are now down to the Air War versus the Ground War. The tsunami of money is to pour in the elections this week. Just imagine some of the waste. Conservative groups have ponied up $10 million to defeat Alan Grayson in Florida. Sharron Angle declared her last quarter fund-raising topped $14 million from conservative groups. The AFL-CIO has announced its will expand its ground operation to 20 more House seats and vow to be the strategic dam for the Democrats.

But there are some strange things happening out on the hustings. Republicans are trying desparately to avoid debates. Michelle Bachmann even skipped a debate held 15 minutes from her house. They are even avoiding interviews with the local press. Alaskan Teabagger Joe Miller has come under more fire recently as the Alaskan newspapers are simply asking what did he ever do for a living. Miller was supposed to have held a press conference yesterday afternoon but cancelled it and said he would not answer any questions about his private life for the rest of the campaign. He said he was "drawing a line in the sand."

I watched several of the candidate debates yesterday. Joe Miller came across as a thug and an ignoramus. Democrat Scott McAdams outlined his qualifications for the job but came across as very young in attitude. Asked whom he admired in the Senate, he talked about Jon Tester of Montana and mentioned an older Alaskan senator. Lisa Murkowski spoke also and talked about Tad Stevens and others. Both candidates received sustained applause. Joe Miller said that he admired Jim DeMint. There was dead silence--you could hear tumbleweed roll by. There seems to be more buyers' remorse with Miller and questions are being raised about everything from his resume, to his debts and to his positions.

The Koch Brothers' Tea Party Express is due to dump $500,000 on Miller's campaign this week. But polls are actually showing tremendous slippage in Miller--his support now is evaporating down from the 50% to mid-30s in no time.

I had already written off Russ Feingold as dead for his refusal to accept out of state financing in Wisconsin. But his internal polls show it is now tied at 48-48 after two victories in the debates. Even Rasmussen shows Feingold has cut Johnson lead to 7% from 12% in no time.

Chris Coons still maintains a 16% lead over Christine O'Donnell even though her money train arrives this week. Delaware is a state where Democrats will also pick up Mike Castle's old House seat.

Arizona's Governor Jan Brewer, is being staalked now by Terry Goddard, the Attorney-General who refused to defend the Arizona immigration law. Goddard is only 3 back among registered voters, and some 11 with likely voters. The strong momentum is based on Goddard winning the Hispanic vote.

Governor Mankin has taken the lead in West Virginia after his hard-hitting ads. He launched his third one in a row with real West Virginians firefighters talking about his Republican opponent.

Mark Kirk of Illinois , who now is behind the Democratic, was caught on tape talking about "voter integrity squads" to be sent to "vulnerable districts", mainly Hispanic and Black areas. Traditionally, this is GOP speak for vorter suppression efforts and Kirk earlier had bragged about how he had the best voter suppression effort in the state.

I watched the James Conway-Rand Paul debate in Kentucky. Remember Conway got more votes in his primary than Paul did in the GOP. Registered Democrats in the state outnumber Repubicans by 600,000. Conway is a handsome ,articulate candidate with a sure grasp of the issues. Rand Paul was caught off guard and showed he didn't know much about his own state. He tried to cast the debate as a protest against Barack Obama, sounding all the racial dogwhistles. But I don't think it worked. Rand Paul came across as an awkward ,inarticulate personality. Conway dominated the whole debate both visually and verbally. Today, Rand Paul tried to get back at Clinton campaigning in the state, saying how can you believe a person who had an affair with an intern. Clearly Rand was wounded.

Ken Jenson at PPP polling says that he thinks the Republicans will take the House by a wide margin but the Democrats will do much better in the Senate than anyone thinks. On the Senate I happen to agree with him. Last night I reviewed some House polls, which show the Democrats can pick up 10 Republican seats, meaning that the Republicans need 49 seats to take the House. While Nate Silver projects a Republican win also, he also points out that the highest odds are for 47-48 seats.

Major Garrett, former Fox news reporter, writing in the Washington Monthly, outlines the whole Democratic approach since a week after Barack Obama took the oath of office. Even then the Democratic leadership told their members what the Republicans had in store for them in 2010. With a strategy created by Rahm Emmanual, the Democrats sought to raise funds early and often so that vulnerable members would have a cushion when the onslaught began. The whole idea was that the Democrats could maintain control of the House by a bare minimum and still claim victory.

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