What If The House Changes

There are a number of peace signals being given by the GOP concerning cooperation with President Obama if they win. Don't believe them. Remember the margin of victory, if it happens, would depend on some 30 teabaggers, who will be emboldened by Michelle Bachman and Congressman King. Tan Man Boehner will be obliged to buy this caucus off. Congressman Pence has already said that the House will not cooperate with the Administration.

First, let's be clear the GOP does not and has never cared about deficits or the national debt. This has been clear by the inability of their candidates to name a single program they would cut. While Democrats are the tax and spend party, the GOP is the spend party--but only on friends. The last Republican who cared about balanced budgets and the national debt was Dwight David Eisenhower. No one since.

Second, the GOP will not compromise on the Bush tax-cuts. You can show every American all the various studies showing how these tax-cuts are counter-productive and multiply our debt, and it would not matter. The GOP will not accept the compromise percolating here in D.C. that tax cuts could be extended to people earning $1 million a year but no further. This would also cut taxes for the super-rich but not by as much. I wonder if you ran the figures whether such cuts wouldn't cancel out any increases. The GOP will probably wave the PayGo rules to pass the tax-cuts and not request a CBO estimate on how much it adds to the national debt. They have made it clear they do not trust the CBO figures.

Third, The Republicans filibustered the funding of the Wall Street Reform. They will continue to do so as to kill it. The primary casualty will be the Consumer Protection Agency slated to be led by Elizabeth Warren. This is their big payback to their anonymous donors.

Fourth, they will seek the abolition of the capital gains tax and try to sell it as a boon to the middle-class, who is protected against it by 501-Ks and other retirement instruments. The real beneficiary will be the Hedge Fund brokers because they declare large portions of their income as capital gains.

Fifth, the GOP will try to eliminate the "death tax" or estate taxes, which only apply now to people with a net worth over $5 million.

Sixth, they will try to repeal Healthcare Reform. Again they will not ask the CBO how this will signifantly reduce the national debt--instead it will raise it. If they do not succeed on this, they will vote to defund major portions of it, including the Free Clinics and the Children health care.

Seventh, any proposal to raise the limit on the FICA tax will be defeated. Instead, the GOP will vote to raise the age of retirement because "we had no other choice." What that does is to cut benefits for seniors. But this would have to be made plain to an economically ignorant public. And I doubt whether anyone will do it.

Eighth, any debt reduction proposal from the Catfood Commission that incorporates any Democratic ideas will be rejected.

Ninth,the bipartisan House committee to examine defense cuts will either be eliminated or ignored.

Tenth, USAID will suffer some cuts because they fund family planning overseas. The House will even go further to weaken the non-military part of our foreign policy because they don't believe in diplomacy or negotiations. In the Senate, it will be very difficult for the New SALT Treaty to be ratified.

Eleventh, House republicans will re-steal $90 billion from the student loan programs and return it to the banks. This program that ostensibly incensed Republicans as a socialist move enabled students to secure low-interest loans with a cap on the % of income for re-payment. If the Republicans return this program to the banks--it only happened under W--then students would pay between 12-14% on interest and have to pay back a greater percent of their income in their early earning years. The move also would cut down significantly on the number of loans that would be made available. It's a pure gift to the banks.

Now the good news is that Republicans have lost the policy-making gene and will do all this in a ham-fisted way, which may make it easier for President Obama to veto. The other positive note is that John Boehner and the top Republicans are show-boaters and not work horses so they will not meet as often and as late as the Pelosi House. So how far they get in dismantling President Obama's agenda is still a question mark.

Congressman Issa, as I've already written, will start a series of investigations, which will range from the looney to the semi-plausible. One of his first exercises will be to establish that the mortgage crisis was created by all the poor people who bought homes and not the bankers. Despite libraries and living witnesses about the rapacity of the banks, he can get away with this. And he will be supported by daily coverage on Fox.

The premier investigation will be Congressman Sensenbrenner's hearing on Climate Change and Why It Is A Hoax. This will be the great Earth is Flat debate. Climate change scientists will be hauled before the inquisitors. This again will be daily entertainment on Fox News. These hearings will be an excuse for House Republicans to defund the EPA and to curtain efforts to secure alternative energy sources.

The prime goal of the House Repubicans will be to reward their friends with goodies and tax-breaks and to gut the regulatory agencies of the federal government. In fact, they will go farther than George W. did. What Americans still do not get is that Republicans are now radicals. They are no longer conservatives.

They could pull some other stunts like shut down the Government like Gingrich did. They believe they can do it this time without negative repercussions. The question is whether Boehner has the personality to actually go to the brink constantly against the President.

Almost all the conventional wisdom by the Washington nomenklatura will be wrong. If President Obama did not understand how obstructionist the Republicans have been, the Washington pundits really don't get it and they are the naive ones with any Republican take-over of the House. We're not talking gridlock, which might be pleasant, but constant war. The House would be the Republicans little version of the Reichstag.

We will only have to live with this warfare until 2012. After one year, the Republicans will be focussed on their own presidential primaries and their congresscritters will want to be on the campaign trail.

Nothing the Republicans do will improve the economy. Nothing. But if they succeed in their agenda, they will increase the national debt by $8 trillion more. And none of it would have gone to anything remotely resembling the common good.