Looney-Toons

Alright, Nate the Great has the Senate at 51 today, Electorial Vote agrees and DailyKos has it still at 52. But this number would mean Reid,Bennett,Illinois and Feingold and Alaska are lost causes. None of these sources have Conway or McAdams or Sestak in the game. What we are seeing is the low number possible. Electoral Vote still has Dems at 207 to 204 for Republicans in the House. Although the momentum there has been for the Republicans until the last two days.

While headline writers have only 2/3rds of the Obama voters going to vote for the Democrats, the actual CBS polls says something very different. The little paragraph buried is the Independents--which 42% are voting Democrat, 12% Republicans and 38% are still persuadable. The large persuadable independents indicates how hard the GOP is having to make the sale. That this is so large two weeks out means this election is still undecided.

The 2/3rds note would be excellent if that is the likely voter. Remember the strategy is to get a sizable percent of these voters out, not the whole bunch. Polling over the last two weeks indicates that we may have a larger turnout this year than during other mid-terms. And of the Obama Voter 89% approve of his performance. So we're not seeing the great sampede to the Republicans that Washington pundits have been talking about.

Obama's approval rating in Gallup today is 48% and Rasmussen 49%, making the recent media drumbeat for the GOP look awfully suspicious.

Apparently, the Republicans have caught on to the silent but developing GOTV efforts by the Democrats. In Nevada, a Republican front group called "Latinos for Reform" is running ads urging Latinos not to vote at all. The Latino former-Bush official in charge of the group said that it was a protest against Barack Obama and Harry Reid for not pushing immigration reform and that Latinos are going to show they were not going to be taken for granted. The group admitted that Sharron Angle was anti-immigrant. But this is an operation meant to suppress the normally Democratic voter.

National Republican Lawyers group, which is mounting aggressive voter suppression efforts in the black community, are being funded by GOP financial giant and Republican bankroller Dick DeVos,Mr.Amway and the father-in-law of Eric Prince, the CEO of Blackwater. These groups will be mobilized in Illinois and reports are appearing in Texas. Ostensibly to ensure "voter integrity", these are imitations of the people from the "Brooks Brothers" riots in Miami-Dade county during the 2000 election. It's clear Republicans are more worried about Obama surge voters than they had let on.

There is nervous chatter of right-wing websites about Obama's campaigning. Of course, they say he is only going to areas where leftists live and his efforts will be for naught. But it seems they are obsessively concerned about the President out and about the land. Rush Limbaugh is trying to whip up the Cheetos-worshippers by calling Obama "demonic" today.

A race that always intrigued me was Bill White's challenge to Rick Perry in Texas. I read a very detailed article on why Texas won't elect him governor because the revelations of Perry's corruption are not read by many and the true state of the Texas economy has not yet been felt by the average citizens. Polling in Texas has been sporadic but showing Perry would win in a walk. But I also read an analysis of the whole scale of the Democratic Party's effort in the state. It dwarfs the Republican efforts and they have created White headquarters in every district and conducted massive GOTV drives. If you think, as I do, organization matters, this is a race to watch on election night.

Following that up, I read last night the statements by the AFL-CIO on their efforts in Pennsylvania on behalf of Joe Sestak in his race against Pat Toomey. This race was another one pronounced dead a few weeks ago. Sestak had a few point lead over Toomey among union voters but after the AFL-CIO's campaign he has soared to 55%, some 20 plus points over Toomey. This shows up in the polls the last two days which shows Sestak has moved ahead by a point or two.

If Independents can still be persuaded, why won't Republicans in tight races appeal to them. That shows the ideological bind the GOP is in. Any such effort would alienate their increasingly fascist base. Also, I think there is a blind belief that money does indeed buy you anything.

The GOP are paying George Washington University students $50 per day to campaign for Christine O'Donnell in Delaware. In last night's debate, Claremont constitutional scholar Christine O'Donnell challenged Chris Coons to show where in the Constitution there was the separation between church and state. He calmly said,"The First Amendment" and the audience laughed at Christine.

Also providing laughs has been Sharron Angle, who appeared before Latino high School students to explain why she was running the menancing dark-skinned Latino ads against Harry Reid. She explained that she didn't know these people were Latinos but she added that she was concerned about the terrorists who came in the country from Canada. The students laughed at her but the Canadian Ambassador to the United States has demanded an apology. She also told the students they looked Asian. And she waxed nostalgically that people often said she was the first Asian legislator in Nevada. Something veteran reporter John Ralston claims no one has ever said.

In my favorite Senate race, Joe Miller did not show up at the debate last night because the man he handcuffed was the moderator but he did find time to speak to CNN. His added complaint against the reporter was that he followed him into the men's room, something no one can attest to. To me this is more of the Tea Bag fixation on gays--O'Donnell suggesting Mike Castle was gay, Sharron Angle demanding Harry Reid put his "man pants on" and here the suggestion that somehow Miller was fending off some gay move.

Unfortunately for Miller, a former supporter Mrs. Symbol came to the townhall meeting and saw the whole fracas and told reporters that while the journalist was aggressive, he did nothing wrong. She complained that she brought her son to hear Miller on his support on gun rights but Miller turned and ran right over her son, pushing him over. Now she won't support Miller.

It seems two of Miller's security guards were active duty military and when their commanding officer heard about their moonlighting, he was furious and vows to bring action against the men.

My candidate Scott McAdams told reports he has never seen an Alaskan politician escorted by armed guards with Secret Service earpieces. He said that his entourage consists of his son or daughter.

Miller's attempt to avoid discussion about his ethics problems during his days as an attorney for small town has only lead to the press opening the discussion further. Miller has not been able to put this back into the box. His failure at damage control has led to a further decline in his popularity. Remember after he won the primary, he was at 53% and was a lock. Now he is at 34% and is in a three-way tie.

Scott McAdams got the best line of the debate. Asked to say something nice about Lisa Murkowski. She said,"She's less Right than Miller. But then John Birch was less Right than Miller."

Don't feel sorry if Sharron Angle loses. Nevada will have to appoint a new Senator soon when Ensign is forced to resign. And the governor's seat will remain Republican.

Love will find a way. The Love Gov, Governor Sanford of South Carolina is still seeing his Argentine bombshell. This is reported by his former wife. Elliot Spitzer's madam is now running for Governor of New York. Next, we might see Diaper Dave Vitter's New Orleans Madam run.

Recent polls show the California races are tightening but this just may be outlier polls.

Apparently, the Chamber of Commerce is angry at Velvet Revolution, the website which created the Stop the Chamber campaign. The Velvet Revolution has requested the FBI to investigate threats against them by Chamber employees and management.

Advocacy groups are just flooding the FEC, the IRS and the FBI with complaints against the Chamber. A veterans group charged their funding creates a "clear and present danger" to our democracy because of the foriegn component. Karl Rove and Republican apologists are trying to laugh off the charges. But yesterday, it became clear that Saudi businesses owned by the royal family were funding some of the anti-Democrat attacks ads. Naturally, torture man, Marc Thiessen asks in the Washington Post who's funding the Democrat's attack ads. This is going to blow up on conservatives like an exploding cigar.

Check out the website www.immenseconsequences.com for how the military is faring with the suspension of DADT. Secretary of Defense Bill Gates complained that the repeal of DADT would have "immense consequences" for the military. The website lists the type of incidents, etc. one can look forward to--complete with a running clock that started once the Judge ruled DADT unconstitutional. Naturally, total number of incidents so far is "O". Judge Virginia Phillips just didn't buy DOJ's argument for a stay and ruled the appeal to continue.