Friday, June 28, 2013

Down the Rabbit-Hole and into the Bleachers-Can the GOP Reform?

++First, gays are urging Andrew Sullivan not to go down the rabbit-hole since he urged gays to be generous to their adversaries. But Andrew has taken note of Bill Clinton's recent emergence in favor of gays rights when he signed DOMA and DADT into law. I'm with Andrew on this. DOMA was clearly a homophobic piece of legislation that Bill Clinton should be held responsible for. It occurred when Republicans got whiff that Hawaii might approve same-sex marriages in the 1990s. DOMA was aimed particularly to head this off at the pass. Clinton was looking to re-election so he didn't want the backlash if  he vetoed the bill. And we can credit Clinton with welfare reform, which he persuaded supporters he would correct once re-elected.

++John Oliver did a fun spot on the House Republican reaction to same sex marriage and wondered why Republicans when they think of it always descend into the area of bestiality. He can be forgiven because he is a Brit but all the Republicans come from states where Romney one--which all make it legal to have sex with a horse.

++Likely states where same sex marriage will be approve sooner rather than later are states where 50%+ favor it. These include New Jersey at 60%+, Michigan at 57%+ Virginia at 57% and Illinois at 50%.  Grass-roots campaigns are hitting Arkansas,Ohio, North Dakota, Wyoming and Michigan.

++As Andrew Sullivan noted yesterday, the conservatives in the House plan to introduce a constitutional amendment banning same sex marriage. The problem is that enough states already legalized it to stop such an amendment.

++Nate the Great Silver has surfaced again to say that Hillary Clinton has a 60-70% advantage if she decides to run for President. He argued that her advantage is akin to a sitting President. He says she has to signal her desires sometime in 2014 to clear the way in the primaries or harm any Democrat who might run as a nominee.

++Now to the issue at hand. The Times They Are A Changin". Can Republicans reform themselves? Reince Preibus did an autopsy which showed that voters thought the GOP was anti-modern,intolerant, racist, sexist and ignore the youth vote. Michael Gerson explained to the party that supporting immigration reform was not really about winning the Hispanic vote but was about dispelling the image that the Republican party was against immigrants in general and were intolerant. Others have weighed in and Fred Malek told the Post Today that donors were hanging back because they wanted the party to appear pragmatic. John McCain morphed into a diplomatic politician yesterday after the immigration reform win in the Senate to suggest he would be politely conferring with House colleagues about passing reform. Asked whether Republicans could win without it,he gave a polite reply, the equivalent of "We're Toast".  Michael Tomasky in the Daily Beast countered today with an article about how others in the GOP believe they can win through 2050 by doubling down on the white vote and exploiting xenophobia. 

++With the internet and television shows like Rachel Maddow, the escapades of the GOP at state levels are more prominent today than at any time and the picture is particularly nasty. Women's healthcare rights are being "disappeared" by Republican state legislatures dominated by men. Egged on by the Christianist fringe,this year has been the worst in terms of access to abortion procedures and even contraception. 

++With the gutting of the Voters Rights Act, states are now embarking on changes that the DOJ has said are "overtly racist". The Maddow show did a segment on how Texas' Voter ID law will further depress the Hispanic vote and how redistricting in Texas only benefited white legislators. These plans are now being implemented in about six other states right after the Supreme Court decision--don't wait, just GO.

++The once modernizing state of North Carolina has moved into reverse and became the first state not to receive federal aid to the long-term unemployed. 

++The GOP's obsession with Obamacare has led to 39 House votes to repeal it and States have turned down Medicare expansion that would have insured millions of poor people. The GOP's attempt to gut Obamacare and underfund it will just mean it will be implemented in about half the country, while the rest will again have no healthcare.

++In their appeal to the Young, every Republican in Congress is against stopping the increase in college loan payments from doubling.

++The fanatical anti-science attitude of the Republican base bodes ill for any constructive attempts at climate change policy.

++On the issue at hand, Republicans honestly believe they will garner 70% of the white vote so there is no incentive to change, particularly with a by-election creeping up where turnout if low and the electorate is predominately white. 

++So this leaves John Boehner between a rock and a hard place. Privately, Boehner has told close acquaintances he favors an immigration law and believes the House will pass some version. But in the last few days, his Caucus have been overt in denouncing the Senate bill and saying the Senate can go "stick it".  Politically, it does not matter to the sitting members because through gerrymandering people believe Republicans will keep the house, having lost the house by a million votes in 2012, so what does it matter. 

++Remember Republicans have lost the popular vote for election in 5 out of the last 6 presidential elections. You would think this would wake them up but it does not appear to be so. Currently,they have manufactured another urban myth that Romney would have won and the IRS acted like ACORN in thwarting the white vote. The problem with the party is that their donors base is wary about such ideas because they were assured by the party Romney would win. So the big donors are sitting on their wallets.

++Unless they have a conversion experience, I see the GOP sleepwalking into the future. They are not disappearing yet but they sure are creepy.



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