Tuesday, June 25, 2013

SCOTUS TOMORROW

++SCOTUS couldn't deal with affirmative action in this court. It thought it made a compromise solution on the Voting Rights Act by affirming it with gutting Section 4 which makes Section 5 dormant as Ruth Bader Ginsberg wrote. So what about the gay rights cases?

++Remember the huff and puff on whether Prop 8 gang has "standing"? I expect a weasel worded decision that in effect allows same sex marriage to stand in California but be limited to that state. One way to do this is to argue the "standing" issue and affirm the lower court's decision with specific words about it only applying to California.

++DOMA could be the landmark case. Here Judge Kennedy raised the fundamental issue of whether Congress had the constitutional right to pass any law concerning marriage since this is not the purview of the federal government. The Obama decision didn't defend the law but instead allowed the House to mount a defense of it. The implications are wide-ranging for benefits of spouses in same sex states. Since the issue in this case revolves around a widow of a same sex spouse getting hit up with estate taxes I expect DOMA to be struck down. 

++But in the long-run public opinion is running so far ahead of the Court and that any negative decision will not have an impact that can not be over-run by state's passing laws to protect same sex couples.

++The Voting Rights decision is awful. The court made a point that in its 50 years it was successful. So if it works, you must gut. The advocates of voter suppression will take the decision and run with it for the next two elections. The problem now is that individuals deprived on voting rights must sue individually so the burden falls on the suppressed voter. 

++President Obama and Joe Biden ripped the decision immediately and vowed to correct the situation. Nancy Pelosi did the same and Senate Democrats also vowed immediate action. But no Republicans have come to the support of the ACT. Instead, House Southerners hailed it and the conservative blogs thought it was fair. So much for outreach.

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