Down The Rabbit Hole

++President Obama finally declared that Syria had crossed the red line by using chemical weapons against the opposition. Just as he announced plans for arming the non-Islamist opposition, Iran sent 4,000 troops to bolster the Assad regime. Qatar has sent $1 billion worth of arms to the opposition and the Saudis were begging Washington to send surface to air missiles. While McCain and others were lobbying for a no-fly zone, the White House said it was more complicated than in Libya since the Russians in the past month sent Damascus surface to air missiles to bolster their anti-aircraft defense. Yesterday,Secretary of Defense Hagel allowed F-15s to stay in Jordan as some suggested the United States would create a half-fly zone for 25% of the country.

++President Obama had held off the pressure to arm the opposition from Leon Panetta, Hillary Clinton, and the McCain-Graham duo for some time. People in Washington felt the pressure was too much when Bill Clinton came out criticizing the President's lack of action. Clinton, Obama's new ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Powers, and current ambassador and NSC director-designate Susan Rice made the case for intervention on humanitarian grounds citing Bosnia and Rwanda. Others felt this more like Reagan's policy of arming the Afghans against the Soviets, which did aid in the collapse of the Soviet Union but generated Islamic fundamentalism throughout the region and the rise of Al Qaeda.

++The interventionist Washington Post thought it might be too little, too late. Zbig Brezinski couldn't figure out what the purpose was. Andrew Sullivan came out blistering with a tough piece on his blog entitled Obama Betrayal. Josh Marshall opposed with slightly less vehemence. Thom Hartman gave a very reasoned argument against intervening in other people's civil wars. Doug Bandow from the CATO Institute also opposed. Opposition was based on two arguments. One President Obama is going down the Neocon slippery slope to another Middle East War when he had frequently promised withdrawal from the two wars we have and are fighting already. Our intervention at the level he contemplated can not tip the balance in favor of the opposition and would need actual military troops on the ground, which would put us square against Russia and Iran. The second argument is that the Syrian civil war is a 1,000 year war between Sunnis and Shiites, which we don't understand and should not get involved with.

++While I am all for beefing up humanitarian efforts because of the huge number of refugees this conflict is generating, I refrain from supporting further arms supplies into this country which is already bristling with arms. The White House claims that the CIA in the last two months has gotten a handle on distinguishing the radical Islamists from the more moderate opposition. Having gone through this before in the late 1980s with Afghanistan,I am dubious they want to or can make the differentiation.

++Given our disastrous war in Iraq,I can not see a viable endgame, which will not cost even more lives and much more money. But I have been wrong before. My appetite and the American People's for more intervention in the Middle East is evaporating.