Anticipating the State of the Union

++The big morning news was that President Obama was going to raise the minimum wage for federal workers to $10.10. That doesn't sound like a big deal but it will affect hundreds of thousands of people working at maintenance jobs, janitors and others who work as contract labor. Expects howls of indignation. But JFK and LBJ did the same thing.

++Everybody and their uncle is weighing in on what the President should talk about. Eugene Robinson wants talk about climate change. Ed Shultz wants the President to come clean on the TPP. President Obama's former speech writer says the President starts thinking about the State of the Union in November and by the end works until 2am for two days editing and revising the text. President Obama wants the text to "sing" which is tough for a speech that comprises a laundry list of things to do and goals to accomplish. For President Obama these speeches are more aspirational than anything.

++What's interesting and it has been true since the start of his Presidency the majority of the American public have supported his policy goals, with the exception of Obamacare, which is still inching upwards. For example,when President Obama blasted Citizens United in the State of the Union,a majority of both parties agreed with him it was bad. Solution--nothing.

++Let's look at the tale of the tape. Quinnipiac shows 69% want unemployment benefits to last more than a year; 58% think Congress should pass extended unemployment benefits for the 1.5 million, which they have not; and 71% think the minimum wage should be raised. On immigration reform,54% think illegal immigrants should have a path to citizenship. 

++The polling also shows that the American people are hip to the obstructionism of the GOP. 51% think the GOP is too intractable and only 39% think Obama is. A Pew poll says 52-27% believe the Democrats are more bipartisan than the GOP and with the exception of the economy, they think the GOP is too extreme.Polling also favors Obama going alone with executive actions. 

++Pundits are saying that this is the last year when Obama will have any juice before we start hearing about the 2016 election. While the President will have room to maneuver in foreign policy in the rest of his term,he will be in a defensive posture to preserve what he has achieved.

++So my advice is Go Big!