Monday, March 17, 2014

Democrats Doomed Because of Snow in D.C.

++The Amazon Post this morning ran several articles on the GOP making a big push in 2014. Morning Joe claims the Republicans are unbeatable. Karl Rove says the GOP will win big. Even David Plouffe warns that the Democrats could lose the Senate. Although he did say it will be caused if Democrats stay home.

++One indicator for the pundits is the entry into the New Hampshire Senate race of Scott Brown, who moved to New Hampshire from Massachusetts. In all the polls he runs far behind Jeanne Sheehan. His best poll shows him ten behind.

++The big new this morning is that the GOP will offer up after 6 years an alternative to Obamacare. I won't go into the details until they really,really unveil this alternative. It might be good for Democrats on the campaign trail to ask their GOP counterpart what the alternatives are. We know they want to sell junk insurance across state lines,let small business pool their insurance,have tort reform,and have catastrophic insurance but not have the protections of Obamacare. The initial price tags are an increase in the national debt and the uninsured.

++Brainwrap may end up being right about his 5.5 million prediction. Today,the 5 millionth person signed up for Obamacare. 

++The Koch Brothers pulled their anti-Obamcare ads because the pushback from fact-checkers got too much that even the cancer victim had to hide.

++Talking Points Memo had a piece today about how the GOP will monkey around with Obamacare , presuming they win the Senate.

++The mindlessness today reminds me of 2010. But we should withhold judgment until June. The generic poll has Democrats leading except in the NYTimes where Republicans have a 3+ lead. All the Sunday pundits point to Obama's shrinking approval rating as evidence this will be a big year for Republicans. Today's Rasmussen is 49 Approve,49 disapprove, not the territory that W had at this point. 

++Republican governors still face uphill battles in Maine, Pennsylvania,Florida, Wisconsin and Georgia. Wendy Davis is only double digits behind in Texas.

++Historically,the President's party gets hit in the 6th year of a presidency. And yes, this year the Democrats are defending more seats than the Republicans. And, yes, the Democrats have only a 36% approval rating. But, the GOP has 20%. That's a winning ticket?

++The American public have lived through the Tea Party revolution and the government shutdown and 52 attempts to repeal Obamacare without a replacement. Will this generate the same type of second term midterm that is projected?

++As the demographic of the GOP base--over 60,white male, I still can't understand why older Americans would favor the GOP when they know they are committed to destroying Social Security, Medicare and are committed to war.

++Millennials have real beefs with the Obama Administration. In particular, the continued issues of the national security state or the Deep State. Dana Millbank reports on this in the Amazon Post. The other critique is that no one was punished for their role in the 2008 collapse of the global economy.

++Any woman who votes for the GOP has to have her head examined now that the war against women has entered into the bizarre realm of trying to outlaw contraceptives, a decision that was made by the Supreme Court before I was a teenager.

++Republicans have vowed nothing significant will be done this year in Congress. A great message to elect them to total control of Congress.

++So where will the economy go. Obama, the Socialist, created the situation where there is now a record millionaires in the United States--9.63, who will of course vote against Democrats. Household wealth is now at 80.7 trillion. Consumer confidence is at its second highest since August. Retail sales increased for the first time in 3 months. As a fed official said, we are not in a "soft patch" in the economy.

++Since the extended unemployed are thought not to vote, the 2 million will have to wait until after the St. Paddy's day congressional break for a Senate vote. The House will probably not vote on it.

++President Obama's directives on overtime tries to remedy a long-time wrong and will affect millions of workers. The private sector are beginning to scream about it.

++With immigration reform receding as the GOP wants to strengthen their white vote, President Obama has decided to review deportation figures.

++Referenda on raising the minimum wage and medical marijuana may serve to get out the Democratic vote in 2014 the way anti-gay marriage votes got out the Republicans. In Florida, where the Democratic party is weak, this would be a big plus in the governor's race of Crist versus Scott.

++The GOP is great at proclaiming victory prematurely. But there is something happening that is under the radar. Last election, I wanted President Obama to campaign in Georgia because I thought he could win it. This year, we have Michelle Nunn, Sam's daughter, and Jason Carter both leading in the Senate and Governor's races. 

++The last Alaskan race I liked Senator Begich because of his campaign and no-nonsense ,low-key campaign. I like how he slapped down this year's Koch ads on Obamacare and the cap and trade law--which doesn't exist and won't. I still lean toward him to win re-election.

++The two Democrats I see in trouble are Pryor in Arkansas and Hagen in North Carolina. But they are still competitive in their races. Weirdly, I think Mary Landrieu has a decent chance in Louisiana. The reason is that Jindal's approvals are in the toilet and the gubernatorial race will feature lingerie-wearing Senator Vitter.

++Democrats should consider the mini-Obama strategy that won Virginia against the Cooch.It can be duplicated. 

++I still believe organization triumphs over money.

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