Monday, March 3, 2014

The Ukraine

++My radio silence is been caused by days of reading live-blogging,op-eds,statements on the Crimea and the Ukraine. One warning is that there is a lot of disinformation being generated by Moscow about the situation and the Ukrainians who toppled Putin's crony regime. The Russian-speakers are not being threatened and so far Russia has only managed to seal off the Crimea.

++Angela Merkel talked to Putin and claimed he lost reality and lost control of the game.

++The Washington Post wasted no time in smashing Obama's entire foreign policy and accusing him of living in fantasyland, an echo of the Wall Street Journal's attack on the American President. Ms.Lindsey Graham,the minute Putin made his move,attacked the "weakness" of Obama. Robert Parry from the Left lit in on how the neoconservatives who remained in the Obama Administration destabilized the Ukraine and are trying to ease their way back in power. 

++The reader should know that Obama didn't seize Crimea and Putin hasn't invaded the Ukraine as yet. 

++But for me, it is great to see people appear I haven't seen or heard of in years. David Satter,Timothy Ash,Adrian Karatnycky, Stephen Cohen re-emerge as expert commentators. A blast from the past was the communique issued by the Trotskist Five International, which reminded me how sharp in analysis they can be. 

++We are back in real geopolitics, not some mirage about the energy empire or regime change or other fantasies of America as the world's hegemon. As an old Atlanticist,I welcome this change. While the Post and the neo-cons beat the war drums--for a thermonuclear war?--this is a time for adroit diplomatic moves to forestall disaster. A Russian seizure of the Ukraine would be a catastrophe but it hasn't happened yet and cries about the Sudatenland are premature.

++What no one has commented on is that the Tea Party, who for months has idolized Putin for his anti-gay agenda and his embrace of Tsarist Russia, are precisely the domestic elements that encourage aggression by the Putins of the world. To have one party spend five years trying to delegitimizing President Obama and calling him weak and a wuss doesn't build confidence abroad and gives tyrants an excuse to move. The American Right are the Fifth Columnists these days. 

++Apparently every event is the greatest challenge to Obama's presidency. The Huffington Post had a list of about 25 of these. Dick Cramer of Freedom House claimed that Obama's Presidency would be judged by how he handles the Ukraine. 

++Then why shouldn't George W. Bush be judged how he handed South Ossetia and Abhazia, which were seized by Putin? The United States did nothing.

++There are a lot of good sources on the on-going events in the Ukraine--the Times' The Lede,Andrew Sullivan's The Dish,Huffington Post,the Guardian,the Telegraph, and others.

++There are so many weird moments to this crisis. The transfer of Ukrainian Gold to Moscow reminding us of the Soviets taking the gold of the Spanish Republic. The Russians using their version of Executive Outcomes to seize the Crimean parliament and government buildings. The Russians having an ultimatum for the Ukrainian Naval base to surrender like the Kronstadt rebellion. The attempts by Russian spetznaz forces to ignite violence in the Eastern Ukraine like they did before they took over Eastern European countries. Moscow's propaganda they are fighting Hitler's Nazis again in the Ukraine. The emergence of the Crimean Tartars who have valiantly kept a pirate radio station going. The bizarre reappearance of the Chechen leader to say he would go to the Ukraine.

++Ed Kilgore in this morning's Washington Monthly wrote a good piece on how what ever Obama does will displease everyone.

++The unilateralists, the believer of a unipolar world where we are the hegemon, believe we are back at being able to intervene in Syria and attack Iran. Our cooperation with Russia on both these issues is null and void so we must saddle up again. This may also apply to Afghanistan because Russia provides vital routes for US forces. 

++And to top it off,we have the annual AIPAC conference in D.C. this week with the appearance of Bibi to hector on Iran.

++We also have Darryl Issa's IRS hearing with Ms.Lerner who has withdrawn her fifth amendment pleas.


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