++You will not read it in the Beltway analysis or in the New York Times where the Republicans are thought to win the Senate this year. Democrats are writing that 2016 will be better for them because of the number of GOP seats being contested. The GOP is now crowing about how they are going to shut down the government and making promises to the Koch Brothers seen on tape.
++But Sam Wang is not impressed. He pointedly indicates his analysis is running against the conventional wisdom. Sam has the probability of the Democrats retaining the Senate at 70% and its meta-margin at 4%. His point is that his analysis rests solely on polls and not on the interpretations inserted in the analysis of the data.
++Sam Wang had a better 2012 than even Nate the Great Silver, now of ESPN fame. Interesting. Read his analysis at Princeton Electoral Consortium.
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