Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Thoughts on Justin Trudeau's Landslide Victory

++It was refreshing to watch the CBC coverage of the Canadian elections. Maybe it was because the network had less razzle-dazzle and more substantive analysis of each parliamentary district.

++The first take-away for Americans is that Canada will probably be a partner at the December Paris conference on global change. Harper had opposed a new global climate change agreement because of the stake of the Conservative Party in the tar sands region.

++From an electoral point of view, this was Canada's longest campaign--all of 72 days--and the average voter was already sick of it. 

++I'm more NDP than Liberal but it was striking that the voter actually cast votes strategically to ensure that Harper was ousted. He made the election about himself and the nation responded--negatively.

++He could have campaigned on his policies of getting Canada through the worst of the global economic crash but did not. Instead he was divisive and nasty.

++The Liberals embraced a strategy of getting non-voters to the polls and focused on new Canadians,the young and the lower class. The strategy worked and produced one of the most diverse parliaments. In British Colombia,once the NDP stronghold,the Liberals actively organized the Indian community in all its variations and won. 

++Harper ran against Trudeauism his whole life. But Canadians saw Justin as different, He polled different strengths--hard-working,finding the best people,a better vision of the country, not so much for smarts. Justin started out the campaign in third-place and chose a brilliant campaign team. And it became a Change campaign. According to Canadians,Justin produced a greater victory than his father's in 1968.

++The lessons for Democrats are mobilize the Obama coalition and pay great attention on getting out the vote. Trudeau produced Canada's version of Obama's brilliant 2008 campaign. 

++From the early polls, it was true now as it is then--your vote matters. I thought the most interesting thing was that Canadians voted strategically--they wanted Harper out and could only be confident of that is they went Liberal and not NDP. They wanted a majority ,not a minority government. And they got it.

++The tipping point was John Oliver's message to vote Harper out. Will he be fined $5,000 and faced six months in jail?

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