++It is that time of the season when I start checking in with Nate Silver and Sam Wang. I don't have the emotional connection with this presidential election as I have with Barack Obama in 2008 and in 2012. 2008 was the height of my involvement in presidential politics when I became one of the first financial supporter of his campaign and saw him here in Alexandria. That guy was and is very special.
++Nate cites the betting polls that puts Hillary Clinton at 80% to win the Democratic nomination, Nate says he would put her higher than that but not at 100%. Hillary Clinton has been laying down the foundation for both the primary but more importantly the national election. As Nate writes at FiveThrtyEight that Hillary has more endorsements from elected Democrats than any non-incumbent in modern history.
++The polls that I have been posting the past few months show that Hillary maintains a commanding lead ,despite Bernie's growing popularity and fund-raising capabilities. The polls show also that once we head to the southern primaries Bernie disappears and Hillary dominates, unless Joe Biden enters the race.
++The problem now is that Hillary is spending almost every cent she raises. Sanders has surpassed Obama in having over 1million small donors at such an early stage. David Axelrod points out that while Hillary's donors are tapped out at the maximum limits, Bernie's donors can keep giving through the election cycle.
++Now Joe Biden is certain to miss the cut-off for the CNN debate. But more importantly there are actual time constraints on things like filing papers for the primaries and raising money. Nate can't make up his mind about whether Joe will run because part of the Democratic Party wants a fallback position but that would send out an unnecessary message that Hillary's campaign is in danger.
++Nate is saying that Martin O'Malley just hasn't caught on as an alternative despite his record as Governor of Maryland and that Bernie Sanders is too far left for the party at the end of the day.
++Hillary Clinton may get an unexpected boost from her Benghazi testimony later this month. Partly because a human being confronting the beast and handling the questions well will neutralize this as an issue and remind us that she is a very capable woman who knows her international affairs. The other is simply that Kevin McCarthy led the cat out of the bag by saying the Benghazi Committee was created to ding Hillary's presidential campaign. Hillary could do with becoming the underdog--since we seemed to have lost sight that she is the first American woman who actually stands a chance of being President.
++The latter point can not be underestimated. In 2008, we had the decision of choosing our "firsts". For someone like myself, I never thought a black man would be elected President in my lifetime. I remembered the consternation both the GOP and the Democratic Party had over the prospect of General Colin Powell running for President. His wife Alma prevailed fearing assassination, something that has lingered as a possibility the entire Obama presidency.
++A "first woman" we expected relatively shortly. Our country had not been engulfed in the raging war against women that we have seen the last few years. We saw women winning and ably governing at every level of government. It was really about whom to pick. I always thought the Republicans would have been first out of the gate with talents like Liddy Dole,Chistie Todd Whitman and Olympia Snowe,she of the great name. But Republican politics turned dark.
++Hillary's candidacy in 2008 had the lingering aspects of the Clinton's getting even for the past and George W. Bush's dubious election in 2000. But Hillary's candidacy also had the aftermath of the right's campaigns against both Clintons. Obama was a fresh,eloquent face the country needed.
++Hillary herself had an image that turned all but the feminist off. She appeared to be a careerist and always possessing the ambition to become President. That somehow is a negative. Also the coterie of people around her turned off other insiders. It's like the flip-side of the Bush insiders who are arrogant beyond belief.
++The problem with Hillary Clinton is that we now just accept her and we also simply accept that a woman will be president--big deal. The policy implications, however, of a first woman president are a big deal and should 't be forgotten in this campaign. And this doesn't have to do with overt issues like Planned Parenthood because the issues for working and professional women are more complex and have real world consequences for our society. I don't know why Hillary downplays this, other than wanted to avoid a backlash. Because she is absolutely right on all details.
++One of Bill Clinton's early loves and later extra-marital affairs used to call me during his presidency to trash talk Hillary. There were some fun stories about Bill and this woman out for night drives in a convertible and Elvis playing on the radio. Part of this woman's resentment of Hillary was a Southerner jealous of a Yankee taking her beau and her catty remarks all got around to the issue of body image.
++But once the 1990 scandals over the Clintons died down, Hillary gained the appropriate respect as a hard-working politician with a great attention to detail. When she was chosen as a member of the cabinet of rivals by President Obama that reputation grew at the State Department and in Washington. And it was clear that the insiders on both sides of the aisle saw her an inevitable.
++The comparable male politician to this was Senator Al Gore. In his case, his political lineage and his working his way up the ladder led to the belief "He felt entitled to the presidency , which may have slightly damaged him in the 2000 Presidential disaster.
++But Hillary's problem is slightly different. She has been accepted as presidential timber so long she is almost regarded as a male politician and the uniqueness of her as the First Woman president has been diminished.
++The question is whether the country wants to relive the 1990s and whether the attacks against her will be too demoralizing to Democratic and independent voters as to hurt her chance of success.
++Barack Obama at least gave you the sense of being the ultimate underdog and outsider whose every primary win was an awesome victory. I remember all the times he was ten points behind and if it was only a week out I got used to him pulling it off. In a way, this helped build the image of momentum and the real thing itself. Citizen involvement in the campaign grew as he keep surmounting the odds to the nomination and then to the Presidency.
++The question if whether Hillary can ignite that momentum during the next year. Bernie Sanders is no Barack Obama but his campaign right now has the illusion of duplicating Obama's 2008 campaign.
++I have a sense that Hillary is comfortable running a conventional political campaign . After all, she can't well run as an insurgent since she has been accepted so long as the once inevitable. Instead, she has put all the set pieces in motion--the local committees, the endorsements and also soliciting union support early.
++We will see how she does in the debate. I hope her earthy laugh comes back. Because her contribution to our debate so far is to urge American "to have more fun." I think this a more profound comment than a quick quip. It is absolutely dreary out here.
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