Polls, more Polls and Hocus Pocus

Nate Silver today has increased the odds of the Republicans taking the House, saying the Democratic comeback is only slight and that the local environment in House races still favor Republicans. He also said that Republicans have increased their odds but only to 25% of taking the Senate.

And now the whining begins about polls but there are some interesting complaints that should be taken seriously. Gallup last likely voter screen was amazingly lopsided for conservatives --54%--and for Republicans, raising serious questions about its validity. The CNN poll which shows Sharron Angle leading by two points over Harry Reid, neglected to poll anyone under the age of 35. Rasmussen polls and the Fox polls in Nevada also showed heavy samplings of men and Republicans. At this rate I am totally confused and so are all the pollsters.

There are some anecdotal stories that cast the situation in a slightly different situation. John Ralston, the veteran political reporter for the Las Vegas Sun, wrote a piece yesterday that expressed amazement of the last few polls that showed Angle leading Harry Reid. He wrote that he has been travelling around the state and he can not think of anyone more marginalized than Angle. He writes that there does exist an extensive anybody but Harry sentiment but that has not translated into support for Angle. He said he asks every gathering to show hands about who's going to vote for Harry . The early meeting started with about 50% raising their hands and now it's about two-thirds. The other point he makes is that no one is polling for all candidates including the Tea Party candidate and in Nevada you have "none of the above" as a choice.

While pollster now show Republicans are 50 seats in the Senate, this means they have to win Illinois, Nevada, West Virginia,Colorado and Washington, where Dino Rossi is now challenging Patty Murray. The Dailykos pollster has the Senate now at 51 but a close analysis actually shows 6 races where Democrats are within 7 or less.

More anecedotal hearsay, I spoke with a lifelong Republican, who works in the House. This person reported that the Democratic staff believes they will lose the House but this person believes that the Republicans have recruited such strange candidates that they will come short. This person alaso said that the new crop of Democrats, even though they represent traditionally Republican districts are nicer and more hard-working than their older Democratic counterparts and actually are good representatives. This may be one of the reasons that polls for people running in Joe Sestak old seat or Tom Pierrello here in Virginia are much more competitive than previously thought.

My naivete still amazes me. In this conversation with the Republican, the person complained about the quality of the Republican recruits by saying surely the GOP could have done better because "they are paying these people to run." I had never heard that about candidates. "But it makes alot of sense with the Teabaggers and other fruitloops in the races. So the cynicism here is great. You campaign on any crazy idea you have so has to get the base enthused--we cover you overhead with the Chamber of Commerce ads--you win and then all you obey the instructions from the corporate lobbyists, but still maintain the facade of the great patriot. So this year we really do have hundreds of Manchurian candidates--little robots that will not represent your district but some multinational.

Now the Chamber of Commerce's chief lobbyist was dispatched yesterday to explain to the Washington Post and New York Times editorial boards that there was nothing to worry about on the charges that the Chamber is using foreign funds for attack ads. But Think Progress pressed further and found that the Chamber and Karl Rove's outfit are coordinated by a former Chamber legal counsel and both are using the same ad agency for their attack ads. Think Progress reproduced the ad schedules in certain Senate races showing how they are piggybacking on each other. Remarkably the Republican Senatorial Committee isn't spending a dime on the Missouri race, it's all the Chamber, Rove and faceless conservative groups.

But the foreign element hasn't been as camouflaged as much as the Chamber likes. Pat Toomey in his race with Joe Sestak gave a full-throated defense of corporations shipping jobs to Chinese and the Chinese economic policy in general. This in steel mill Pennsylvania. Nancy Pelosi in her rebuttal to John Boehner's final call speech blasted the House Republicans for repeatedly voting against closing the tax loopholes against corporations that ship jobs overseas and against real small businesses.

The Chamber tried to defend themselves by saying labor does the same thing. An important distinction, the American Labor movement openly discloses to whom it's contributing funds. You can see the records at the Department of Labor. Second point, the American labor movement are real flesh and blood Americans. The UAW and the Steelworkers have Canadians members also. But they do not have Bahrain state owned banks as members.

While President Obama and the Democrats are trying to seize this issue. As several reporters have pointed out, this is not resonating because people think all politicians use this money. The Chamber's behavior this cycle will be a major issue in 2012 because you will see the dramatic results in Republican behavior if they take back the House.

Even so, I would urge C.R.E.W. and other watchdog groups to insist that the Chamber register as foreign agents for any lobbying they do in the future. As I said yesterday, the prohibition on foreign money in our elections recalls the Cold War. Contrary to Justice Roberts thinking he was repealing century old prohibitions against foreign funds, the teeth to these laws came during the Cold War for the simple reason American officials were concerned for Soviet attempts to manipulate our political system.

Now with the declaration of war by fundamentalist Christians and American corporations against the United States, who better to manipulate the situation than the world's most political powerful Pentecoastal Christian, former KGB head Vladimir Putin? Think about it.
The last President said he could trust him by looking into his heart.

Could we give it up for America's great Socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont? Yesterday, America's greatest "pork barrel" scheme went into effect. Sanders attached the amendment to the Healthcare Reform bill of funding a nationwide network of Free Clinics for people who can not afford medical treatment. Blasted by Fox News and the Republicans as a massive payoff to Vermont, it actually benefited the whole nation. Heath and Human Services made their first payment yesterday of over $770 million for the free clinics. Bravo.

Meanwhile in Northern Exposure, the teabagger candidate and Todd Palin's friend, Joe Miller continues to astound me. Joe Miller finally had to file his personal income forms with the FEC or face $50,000 fines. Joe has more credit card debt than myself--an astonishing $65,000, $15-30,000 in college student debt, $55,000 in Law School debt, and claims he loaned his campiagn between $120-200,000. He also owes back real estate taxes and has a small "agricultural" land holding for which he receives government subsidies. So, he's immensely leveraged. Remember he has been earning $70,000 a year and his wife is on unemployment. I would like to see the paperwork on the alleged "loan" to the campaign. That will be his payment for running and be used to pay off his debt. The Alaska Grifters Society is fantastic on gaming the political system.

Joe Miller already has promised to shut down the Federal Government and claims he has Mitch McConnell's blessings (since denied) to do so when he wins. Back here in Virginia, the teaparty held a convention because they are concerned that the Republicans will betray them and not shut down the Government. Also they are demanding that the first piece of business is for the House Republicans to vote to repeal the Healthcare bill. Then they can shut down the Government. Of course, in the real world, we are teetering on a Depression, fighting two wars and millions upon millions are dependent on the federal government for small things like Social Security, Medicare, Veterans Benefits and Income Tax Refunds. Even Joe Miller's father receives Social Security. He must hate him alot. Eric Cantor has shied away from this,"We'll look like Yahoos."

Progressives tend to think that this is all choreographed but the Republican startegy for the past 20 months has been a work in progress. Once the Tea Baggers toppled establishment types, the financial kingpins have moved in to use the Christine O' Donnell's and other exotic creatures as the shiny metal object for the media and others to observe, while they work covertly behind the House Represenatives and other Senatorial candidates they need to win. It looks clever and cynical, but it's all made-up. That's why if the Republicans take the House, it's going to be a free-for-all. None of the new Republicans will have even read the Pledge and they have no loyalty to Bohner, Cantor or the Young Guns. Over on the Senate side, Jim DeMint will be their leader, not Mitch McConnell so all hell will break loose. Joe Miller will be demanding that any bill will have to be evaluated whether it is constitutional. Goodby, CIA. Goodby, standing military. That would be sort of fun.

That's why I want the implosion to be Republican-specific. Even with slight majorities in both chambers, the Democrats can at least minimize the total damage to our political system. President Obama is already studying what policies he can implement by executive order so as to short-circuit the mayhem these people will create.

If the Republicans take back the House, Galileo will be tried again. Rep. Sesenbrenner wants to hold hearings on the "Climate Change Hoax" and wants to investigate all the leading scientists who have studied the subject. Maybe we can have Michelle Bachmann investigate evolution. Rep. Issa might be hampered with his ACORN investigation because the GOP is now hiring these people for their Get Out the Vote effort. But he will surely focus on the New Black Panther Party.

Think about this sad fact, the only moderate Republicans left in Congress will be Senator Lugar, Senators Snowe and Collins, the last I'm not so sure about. The ACU rating on the House side will rise above the 95% rating now. It's one thing for a major political party to blow its brains out but to afflict the whole country is criminal.

A Confederacy of Oddballs

Teabagger and Christian Reconstructionist Sharron Angle pulled a trifecta yesterday. She ran an ad accusing Harry Reid of voting to give Viagra to sex predators. Even Mike Huckabee came to Reid's defense. She then topped this by telling people in Nevada that whole regions of American are now under Sharia law. Her example was Dearborn , Michigan where there is a large Muslim community, notably Iraqi refugees. And an interview with her pastor played the Mormon card on Harry Reid, saying he was a member of a multimillion dollar cult and owed his allegiance to Salt Lake City. Mitt Romney take note. This all led to Bill Raggio, the Republican leader of the Nevada's Senate, to endorse Harry Reid because of Sharron Angle's bizarre views on politics.

Blame it on the Black Guy. Republicans are trying to whitewash their own record on the economy by blaming the current situation on Barack Obama. The racist overtones to this debate are hard to miss. Now, Republicans are crafting an excuse if they don't sweep the elections--it's Michael Steele's fault. A majority of RNC members have openly come out and said that the DNC is better run and that Michael Steele is a disaster at a time the party can make enormous advances. This runs with the early accusations of the mortgage meltdown by conservatives on black homeowners. I'm proud and I'm White and I'm not responsible for anything. That's cool! I could get into that for myself. I'll draw up a list of scapegoats later this morning.

Should the American Chamber of Commerce register as a foreign agent? The backlash on the Chambers' gazillion dollar ad campaign against Republicans continues. The one item that actually makes the foreign agent registration appear a normal procedure is the revelation that the Chamber sends Issue alerts to their foreign members so that they can use the Chamber to lobby for or against our bill in Congress. As we've seen from the preliminary revelations, state oil companies and banks are their members and now it's been revealed that companies owned by the Chinese government are also members of their Chinese branch. If you're directly trying to affect legislation, that's lobbying, which the Chamber does, but if you're doing it for a forign country you have to be registered as such. This issue is not going to go away anytime soon.

Does anyone remember during the Cold War the spy scandal around the American Russian Trade Organization? It was used first as an NKVD front and then later by the KGB.

If you get bashed one day and your public answers don't satisfy the hunger for news, maybe it's best to lay low. But today, the Chamber has announced it will sue the Obama Administration for the regulations it is implementing through the health reform and wall street reform bills. While they are doing that, the Chamber will be hosting several state banks from the Gulf at a meeting here in Washington.

The Democrats have picked the foreign money story up and just run with it. It has morphed into Karl Rove travelling to Libya and Saudi Arabia to pick up cash for the election. Who knows whether it's true or not.

President Obama raised the larger issue of foreign money at the Bowie State rally yesterday, warning that our whole democracy was at risk and that Republicans and independents should be concerned. He told the audience that this would make it harder for representatives to fight special interests when the money put against them is infinite. "It will change the country we live in forever". He's right and that's the point of the whole exercise.

One member of the Chamber was not pleased by all this publicity--one Rupert Murdoch of the partly Saudi-owned, Dubai-based News Corps. His answer to questions was "I thought the $1 million was anonymous." Then Rupert slipped further when he said his contribution to the Republican Governors Association was because of his friendship with John Kasich, who is running for Governor in Ohio. This made Governor Strickland's day as he pounded Kasich over the head with both the Chamber and Murdoch contribution.

The Chamber attack ads ,which are accelerating, deflect their real reason for some of their attacks. For instance, former Admiral Joe Sestak, who is running against Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, is being slammed by the Chamber for voting for TARP and the stimulus package. That's very strange since the Chamber lobbied both for the bank bailout and the stimulus package. But some of the Chambers foreign and American oil companies might not like the Sestak's cap-and-trade legislation. Otherwise, their ad blitz doesn't make any sense.

If you see Democrats voting for massive cuts in Medicare, that's Karl Rove's work. Maybe this is paid with by Libyan money. Who knows? But that's the reason the donors must be identified.

It's bad enough that special interests by Congress but with the next Congress it'll be tough to know whether foreign governments bought it.

At least some Republicans know how to turn a good dime and take a fall. Carl Palladino, who is going down to certain defeat to Andrew Cuomo in New York, has played his zaniness just right. All of his campaign finances are paid to companies he owns or to people who rent space from him. So far, he's been able to launder some $2.2 million from his campaign to his own businesses. That's the way to do it. Down home corruption, not this jetset stuff. Carl Palladino, Man of the People.

The Republican candidate for Georgia Governor is doing the same thing, but he's over-billing his campaign for the planes he rents from himself. It was too conspicuous that the local papers called him out on this.

The Chicago Tribune had enough with Rep. Mark Kirk. They endorsed the Democrat in the Senate race even though they had endorsed Mark Kirk every other time he ran for office. They complained that they didn't know who he was anymore or what he believed.

Christine McDonnell, who is a constitutional scholar because of her short course at the Claremont Institute, not college, claims that "from her deep study" the health reform bill is unconstitutional. And if Congress repeals it and Obama vetoes it,Hillary Clinton will run because she has seen many Hillary for President ads.

Well, her deep study apparently didn't impress the Detroit district judge who ruled that the individual mandates in the healthreform bill were constitutional. This was a big preliminary win for the Obama Administration.

Maybe the Cooch will back off. Our distinguished Attorney-General is suing on healthcare reform but he is too pre-occupied right now with suing the University of Virgina and attacking climate scientist Michael Mann. You have to ask yourself what is behind everyone doubing down on their positions, even when they have already been shown to be wrong. The will to ignorance seems to be growing.

"Macaca man", George Allen met with Senator Cornyn about running against Jim Webb for Virginia Senator in 2012. Talk about a snoozefest.

The teabaggers really, honestly are going to go after Olympia Snowe in Maine when she seeks re-election in 2012. I hope she has the courage if she loses to run as an independent.

Meanwhile in Connecticut, Joe Lieberman is in the low 20s in approval and would lose to the Democrat in 2012. If the Senate is very close, look for Jolting Joe to switch sides. It's unlikely for endangered Democrat Ben Nelson because his state has a deep Republican bench.

The President vetoed an innocuous sounding bill, which virtually slipped through the deadloocked Snate without debate. It was a bill that would force other states to recognized local notarization from another jurisdiction. Clever. This was casually mentioned to two Senator by notaries who were in town for a professional organization. And the Senators complied. Problem--it would have led to more mortgage foreclosures and helped the banks who are only holding pieces of mortgages that were already slices and diced and sold as derivatives. The old American way is for a lender to present the whole mortgage and declared its due. But in the case of millions of homes this is no longer possible. So the banks need to scramble around to justify foreclosures when they no longer have the paper.