Bush's Last Letter

In a letter to Congress, President Bush said that the economy would pick up in the second half of 2009. The economy would grow a modest .6% for 2009 and that unemployment would average 7.7%. For the years 2020 and 2011, the White House expects the economy to grow 5% per year. It is no wonder that President Bush at the presidents' luncheon said to Obama,"we want you to succeed." In large part, Bush's legacy will depend on how quickly Obama and his economic stimulus package works. The longer it takes the more people will remember how the Bush Administration got us here. As Robert Reich said recently, "Everyone is just making it all up as they go along." The Congressional Budget Office had a more pessimistic view of the economy than the Bush letter. Among the incoming Obama team, the dreaded "D" word is often heard and it is not rare to hear projections of 9-10% unemployment for 2009. Some financial analysts believe we have yet to see a few more shoes drop--foreclosures in the commercial real estate sector and a large scale problem of defaults on credit card debt. Another issue is the possible mid-year resistance of the Chinese and other foreigners to buy more American debt. Here's one time I hope Bush turns out to be right.