Monday, January 26, 2009
Is There an Iceland in our Future?
The esoteric sounding Watson Wyatt Worldwide Report put the figure for pension fund losses in 2008 at $5 trillion and that's just the U.S. Little attention was paid to the disappearance of Florida's state pension fund when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. The National Association of Business Economics, which has been monitoring business conditions since 1982, surveyed businesses and found that 39% said there would be significant layoffs over the next six months; only 17% said they would increase hiring. The loss of 2.6 million jobs this past year was the largest since 1945 and unemployment rose to the highest level in 16 years. Even with the Obama stimulus package, an additional 2 million jobs will be lost this year and unemployment is expected to hit 10% by the end of the year. The dust is settling for us to get a clearer view of the economy and the view is not pretty. As of today, most see the situation worsening in the short term and conditions extending into the first half of 2010. I hope we make it.
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