The Dubya Depression

The Bush Administration held back news of the collapse of the world financial system as long as they could before the request for the bailouts. The idea was to hold it until after the November election, banking on a McCain electoral college victory ala the 2000 election since a popular vote count was not seen as possible. Then they would spring the news. Could you imagine the chaos that would have ensued?

I watched the BBC's show "The Oracle" this morning which tries to discuss the collapse of the global economy with humor. One guest said that it was great American had an African president now that we had an African economy. The show predicted a run against the English pound by April and the collapse of the Euro by late year. Staring on the show was more favorite economic indicator--the Baltic Dry Chart, which records trends in overseas shipping. The Chart, which showed a sharp, cataclysmic decline in shipping, basically indicates that global manufacturing has basically ceased. The show also went on to predict dire days ahead for the OPEC countries--which they deemed The Organization of Potentially Explosive Countries.

The Washington Post slipped a piece in this morning that economists now believe the world economy is deteriorating at a more accelerated rate than previously thought and a bigger deceleration is on the way. Britain's GDP has shrunk by 6% last quarter, the largest decline since 1980. Germany experienced a similar slowdown and China and South Korea are stalling. The recession or whatever we call it will hit Europe full force this year. The EU has already issued warnings that Ireland, Greece, and Portugal are running dangerously high deficits and Spain had its bond ratings downgraded.

The question now is whether any rebound in 2010 will be vigorous enough to last.