Friday, March 5, 2010

How Not To Run A Political Party

I sometimes give workshops abroad to new democratic parties about how to run their parties and develop their policy positions. Being pollyannish, I urge them to be constructive and offer solutions in opposition. I also lecture them about the need to build trust with the electorate so that the voter expects you to not only talk the talk but walk the walk. Many of these parties are headed by people who have been human rights activists and make the initial mistake of carrying on as if their human rights issues are paramount in the mind of the voter. Sometimes they are but more often than not voters want to hear about the mundane of jobs, the economy and ,in countries I go, national development.

So in that vein, let's turn out attention to the United States. It's best not to hold a major fund-raiser at a company run by a fundamentalist Christian who is under investigation for multiple crimes, including homicide. Even if this guy is the son-in-law of your biggest donor, the optics aren't quite right. Another problem with said company is that it has a documented history of providing young, under-aged girls to sexually satisfy its employees in other countries. Not a great idea if you are the party of family values. Republicans however are planning on holding a national fund-raising retreat at the headquarters of Blackwater in North Carolina. It's bad enough Eric Prince became a billionaire through sweetheart contracts with the George W. Bush administration. You should run from the man.

Politics in America takes lots of money. In a program in Mongolia, we encouraged people to donate livestock to fund the democracy movement. But here it's cash and lots of it. So, it's not a great idea if you are a conservative party to refer to your donors in print as "reactionaries". It's also not good to put on paper that since you have no power you're going to sell "fear". And if you got smashed the last election, it might not be a good idea to denounce the President as a socialist. Pollsters found that support for socialism rose to the mid-30s when President Obama was accused of being one. It's also a little tacky if your founder is the Great Emancipator to circulate pictures of the black President in white face with red lips.

When your countrymen are facing a Depression, it's best not to have your National Committee meeting in a swanky resort in Hawaii. And if you are the head of the party, which is desparate for funds, it's not a great idea to spend the party's monies on limo services and hotel suites.

A political party should be inclusive, not exclusive. The general idea is to persuade people to vote for you, not create a private club. A political party to be successful can not be defined by religion, ethnicity or class. While you have to secure the historical base of your party, you need to conduct constant outreach to others, even those who disagree with you so there is always room for dialogue. Democracy acts as a way for national reconciliation.

So keeping this in mind, it's best not to showcase new party talent at an all-white resort in the South. Also, when inviting members of disgruntled citizens to your headquarters, it's best not to dump them outside in the snow to hold a press conference in freezing weather. If disgruntled citizens happen to attack government facilities and kill employees, the act must be condemned and not applauded because most people view themselves as patriots and don't blame individual government employees for policies.

Historically, studies show that the vast majority of voters continue to support the party they first voted for. The younger voter cast over 60% of their ballots for Ronald Reagan and the Republicans shaped the policy of a generation. In 2008, a greater percent of first-time voters cast their ballots for Barack Obama. If your party is going to oppose him, then you better develop strategies for reaching the young because he still has an approval rating of 68% among them.

A political party can not win by deliberating shrinking its base. This can be done by taking a narrow ideological line without tolerating a minority. With the white voter no longer constituting the majority, it's not a great idea to alienate minority voters. The Republicans had once 40% support among Hispanics. This has dropped to the low 20s. It has virtually no support among the black population. You can't win elections by depending on pink-haired ladies in sneakers. While voters over 65 are the most reliable at the polls, they tend to die off and sometimes rather quickly. Nostalgia can sustain you only so far but people want ideas for the future.

Finally, a political party must stand for something which is achievable in the real world of politics and not in the afterlife. It's important to realize the cultural assumptions in a society and not try to run against the whole society. You will only attract the most fanatical extremes. People accept alot and do not particularly like extensive radical change. Utopian ideologies have a long history of failure and there are not particularly conducive for a democratic society.

Having said that, let's look at the Republican Party and its triumphalism today. Karl Rove believes it will retake the Senate and Charles Cook believe it will retake the House. Overtly stating these goals as probable outcomes sets the party up for a big crash come November. Never overestimate your chances.

Experts claim the Republicans need $84 million to seriously threaten the Democrats in the House. The funding base of the Republicans, contrary to perceptions, is small businessmen and women, not the large corporations. Today, the NRCC, which raises funds for Republican House candidates, has a grand total of $4 million in the bank after one of its best fundraising months. The DCCC has about $18 million. The various Democratic committees have $51 million in cash right now compared to the Republicans' $34 million.

A major difference this year is that the DNC now has the ability to keep pace and even outstrip the RNC, which dominated fundraising for decades. With the chairmanship of Michael Steele, the RNC has seen its donation rate further decline. And now with the flap over its fund-raising materials discussed above, the prospects have dimmed further.

The Republican prospects get even more complicated. It costs about $1.4 million to win a House seat. the 390 Republicans vying to challenge incumbents have raised $41 million b ut much of that money has to be spent in dozens on contested primaries. Even in the Senate , Republicans are still shy by a few million of its Democratic counterpart.

The Republicans are counting on the angry mood of the population to propel them back into power. But here you have to put forth ideas, which seem to make sense. To advocate as the House Republicans now do the elimination of both social security and Medicare during a Great Recession is my mind is insane. While the burden is on the Democrats to produce, the Republicans can not count on the fact they are a natural alternative. Tea-baggers, whom Republicans thought they could coopt, are now running candidates of their own. Unfortunately for the Republicans, their elected leadership looks like a bunch of tired old white men that deserve a permanent rest.

One of the things about being a consultant on these matters, people get to pay you for your advice and get the right to ignore you. But those who have ignored the advice, go down to devastating defeats. "You don't understand our country, Mr. Bruce." OK. I have some idea about my own. Good Luck!

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