Last Thoughts

++We left Bishop Romney promising that at the end of his first term the unemployment rate would be 6%. The CBO, just by chance, believes if nothing more is done to help the economy it will be 6.1%. But I doubt whether our ace media will call Romney out of it. Instead, they point to his statements that anything above 4% is horrible. 


++Ezra Klein in the Post does some nodding around with various scenarios that show that in certain cases if nothing is done we can expect a growth rate of 4% in 2013 and that whoever wins in November will benefit by this even though they did nothing to achieve it. I still say 2014 the economy takes off. After all,just letting natural processes continue, we will be energy sufficient in that year.


++kos wrote a piece today "Remember the Gender Gap? It's Still There." 


Here's his takedown on the recent polls:
NBC/ WSJ  --difference of women for Obama +24
dKos                                                             +19
Washington Post                                            +9
IBD                                                                +10
Fox                                                                +27
PPP --Pennsylvania                                         +25
SUSA--North Carolina                                     +23


Those numbers have held up for a month.


++Latest polls.
Gallup Tracking 46-46
Rasmussen Obama 46-45 Romney
PPP Arizona  Romney 50-43 Obama
Wisconsin    Obama 49- Romney 43
Pennsylvania (Rasmussen) Obama 47 to Romney 41
Vermont       Obama 59 to Romney 28


My view is that Pennsylvania is done put a fork in it. The polling has followed 2008. The Wisconsin poll was a relief because Walker leads in the recall election so you don't know what the blow back would be. Arizona is closer than Republicans believed but it has one more cycle to be a Swing State. 


++"O" is the number of times Mitt Romney talked about immigration to a bunch of Latino businessmen today. I guess he has written that vote off.


++In case you wonder why the Obama ad campaign seems disjointed, it is because they are using this time to experiment and measure what is most effective. They promise fine-tuning when the main event really begins.


++ What never gets covered is the extent of the field offices by the DNC and the Obama campaign. Apparently they are more extensive than I even believed. I actually pay attention to these things because of my interest in political organizations. 


++My wife left me with a question I don't know how to answer, "If Obama is winning all these groups by large margins, including women, how can the polls be so close?" Good question.