Poll Mania

There is a lot of blather about this being an election that will be as close as Bush versus Gore. Maybe with voter suppression and the Citizens United money. But I still doubt it.


So far there is no real concern about the electoral college. On Diane Rheim's show yesterday panelists discuss the Swing States, those lucky few Americans that decide this election. One panelist said there was a real chance of a 269 to 269 tie. For election junkies this might be a thrilling prospect but for fans of democracy this would seal the country's doom, especially after the 2000 fiasco.


So what do the polls tell us at this stage. Kos has Obama with 293 electoral votes without giving him Colorado--yet. Huffington Post has downgraded Obama to 280 electoral votes and Romney at 170. The ways for Obama to reach 270 remain much more varied than Romney. But this could just focus Romney's attention. 


While future money might give Romney the edge, Diane Rheim's guests suggest that Obama's get out the vote organization is far superior and that Romney has nothing yet on the ground.


So the Washington Post/ABC poll is trumpeted as Obama and Romney tied on the economy. You would have to dig down in the story to find Obama leading Romney 49 to 46. On almost every issue, Obama has huge leads over Romney. And, yes, people still blame George W. Bush for the economic situation. One whopper is that Romney is perceived by over double digits to be able to deal with the deficit. Clearly, there is more work for the Obama administration to do on this score. Romney's own economic plan automatically triggers gigantic deficits and still cuts social programs. 


PPP has Obama 47 to Romney's 46.
Rasmussen Tracking has Obama 46 to Romney's 44.
NBC/Wall Street Journal has Obama 47 to Romney's 43.


Survey has Romney at 45 to Obama at 44 in North Carolina.
PPP has Obama at 50 to Romney's 42 in Pennsylvania.


People have pointed out that the economies of Swing States have begun to improve better than the national economy. Republican governors point to their policies and the Obama administration point to their own. How this will break is anyone's guess. 


One interesting number from Swing State polls is that in all the Swing States according to multiple polls Democrats are increasing their lead in the generic poll, which determines congressional races.


Meanwhile Ron Paul and his Love Revolution keep stealing Romney's delegates at the state levels. He is just cleaning up and Paul people know the RNC rule, which does not tie the delegate to the winner of the primary. Expect some real hassles on this.


The Washington Post is worried that the sizable anti-Obama vote in the Kentucky and Arkansas spells trouble for the Democratic parties,suggesting Obama will have problems in Appalachia. I guess Obama will lose Kentucky and Arkansas in the fall. But this is a fuss all about nothing.


With Romney getting smashed among African-Americans, Latinos, other minorities and women, he has to force Obama's turnout to only 37% of the white vote. Hmmm, good luck trying.


PPP has determined that President Obama's endorsement of same sex marriage will cost him 1% in the general election.