++I relied on Sam Wang to get me through the last two presidential elections. The Princeton Electoral Consortium is back and doing the numbers, only the numbers.
++Sam differs from the rest who try and smooth out the curves. What he observes is that the Donald has lost over 5 points in the average polls ,while still maintaining the lead. He expects the outsider candidates to have a more equal distribution as we go along. He says Carly Fiorina has about a month to do before her numbers really dip. He says her Hewlett-Packard experience and her flagrant lying will doom her.
++In comparison, he says that the outsider candidate support will have to move to "establishment" candidates. Unlike Weigant ,who sees Rubio eventually bowing out, he thinks Rubio with increasing poll numbers is the type of consensus choice the party heads favor. And his selling point is that in head-to-heads with Hillary he does well.
++If you take Wang's reasoning further, Jeb!'s lackluster polling and his lack of competitiveness with Hillary dooms him. The Donald right now is more completive with Hillary.
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