Saturday, February 20, 2016

Sam Wang At Princeton Election Consortium On South Carolina-GOP

++Sam noted Rubio picked up 5.5% after Gov. Haley endorsed him. It's still the Donald . Here are the median polls: Trump 33%, Rubio 20.5%, Cruz 18.5%, Bush 9.5%, Kasich 8.5%, Carson 6%. Sam has Trump winning at least 44 out of 50 delegates.

++Sam thinks Rubio may do better as his surge came late. If Rubio comes in second, Cruz' chances of a big Super Tuesday are vastly diminished and basically his campaign is over.

++Sam says that candidates stay at least one primary after their chances are gone. This may be true with Jeb!

++Sam and his readers think Kasich will hang on until Ohio. 

++The Donald will maintain the delegate lead until Super Tuesday and beyond. 

++Business Insider had a graphic about whom to expect to win the next primaries. It shows that Trump will overwhelmingly win the bulk of them. Rubio may pick up Minnesota and Cruz Texas and Arkansas.

++The question today is whether the Donald over or underperforms on his poll dominance in this race. Survey Monkey has it 44% Trump, which I think is too high, and 25% Rubio with Cruz below 20%.

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