Friday, February 19, 2016

Whither The GOP.

++Yesterday Red State said that the JEB! campaign  said Saturday was the last paycheck. The Dailykos reports that JEB! has been on the phone urging patience with his donors ,banking on a decent showing in South Carolina. Today,Barbara Bush is campaigning for her son. But with 1% in the polls for Nevada,it is hard to see how he can move forward.

++Read Nat Silver's piece about what is at stake in the GOP primary and who is going to finish where. Jeb! thought he would catch Rubio. Nate warns us that primary polling is not as accurate as general election polling. And you can't tell about the candidates yet. The Donald underperformed in Iowa and over performed in New Hampshire. He actually looks in better shape in the South and the Northeast. Nate still has Trump winning South Carolina.

++Why is Ben Carson in the race? Silver argues that a modest showing by Carson tomorrow may wipe out Cruz with the delegates. It looks like the Donald may win all 50 delegates. 

++Marco Rubio has gotten more mysterious. Yesterday he had the best line,"If I were in the Senate,I would be one of the youngest." He is in the Senate and one of the youngest. Ted Cruz,master of dirty tricks,ran an ad with Rubio shaking hands with Barack Obama. Apparently,after the Christie Hurricane Sandy fiasco with him hugging President Obama,the best thing you can do in the GOP primary is not to show your opponent shaking hands with a dictator but with the elected President of the United States.

++Rubio pulled a puzzler. He had an event with all his South Carolina endorsers yesterday and stiffed the conservative crowd while Tim Scott,Trey Gowdy,and the Governor were left holding the bag.

++John Kasich is not going to stick around tomorrow. He's heading to Massachusetts. Was his second place finish a fluke or is this it?

++Marco Rubio's spokesperson says tomorrow you will have a surprise. He says Rubio will finish third. So his new strategy is 3-5-3,instead of 3-2-1. His spokesman said that Rubio's campaign plans on going deep into July. In fact,Marco speculates he will win a brokered convention. 

++This is Ted Cruz' last hurrah are majority evangelical states. And it looks like he won't win any delegates. Both 538 and Ed Kilgore point out that Cruz' road to the nomination is dim. The rest of the evangelical states are in proportional states while the others are winner-take-all. Even a Cruz win in Texas won't net him a big victory.

++Don't you miss Chris Christie? The whole GOP field looks dull and lifeless. The establishment won't come out of South Carolina cheering.

++It looks like the Donald winning South Carolina and Nevada. setting himself up for a large sweep on Super Tuesday. And he will basically have done it for free! Courtesy of the media. Stunning!



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