Tuesday, April 19, 2016

538 On New York Reesults

++Nate Silver did the honors of analyzing Trump's Yuuge Victory in New York. Nate says that Trump still needs to win Indiana and California to put him near the top. (The problem with Indiana where he is eating is that the state GOP elected their own slate of delegates before the primary.) Silver sees Trump winning 90 out of New York's 95 delegates and projects similar results for the upcoming primaries. Silver has Trump coming into the convention with less than Wang predicts.

++Harry Enten did the Democratic honors. He says tonight just showed Sanders needs a minor miracle to even come close to Hillary Clinton. Harry says that Sanders has to over perform in the upcoming states, where he is polling underwater by margins higher than 538 projected for his viability. He needs to pick up massive numbers of delegates and that is why the Sanders campaign harps on super delegates. 

++But it is unlikely either party will accept a nominee that hasn't polled the majority of voters and has more delegates than the nearest competitor.

No comments:

Post a Comment