Beats Me

So Barack Obama caved to the Republicans on the budget deal. Or did he? Now AP reports that Obama protected all his priorities in the deal and gave in on things that either could not be spent anyway or weren't important to him. Boehner, they said, came away with more budget cuts than he wanted. But then again he didn't defund Planned Parenthood and Obamacare.

Progressives are hopping mad because Obama has bought into the whole cut,cut frame of the debate when we still have to secure a strong economic recovery. The right's criticism of the budget deal is so batshit crazy no one can figure it out.

Paul Krugman is still punching away on the Ryan Plan. It's not that it is too radical, it's just that it is fraudulent, says Krugman. It basically doesn't deal with anything in the real universe in any timely matter. And the numbers do not add up.

From a different point of David Stockman blasted Ryan's plan for not addressing the deficit and debt problem. Stockman claimed that any serious plan would have to deal with revenues (Ryan's doesn't), defense cuts (Ryan's doesn't) and entitlements (which, according to Stockman, doesn't except to hide the issue by privatizing Medicare.)

The next real big battle--incredibly so--is raising the debt ceiling. Nate Silver did an excellent piece on his website 538 where he shows that the Republicans in poker language have shown the "tells", the signs they have no leverage despite the bluff.

Silver actually summarizes what a cataclysm would actually happen if the US did not raise the debt ceiling. Even the White House spokesman is using terms like cataclysm and armaggeddon about it. Silver points out that the dire consequences of failing to raise the debt ceiling would mean that every incumbent, including President Obama would be voted out of office. The results, which would last years, would be unbearable for Americans, even the wealthy.

Barack Obama is again caving say the progressives when he will address the nation on his plans to cut the deficit and the national debt. It is rumored that he will embrace the Bowles-Simpson--The Catfood Commission's-- recommendations. Not all that is bad.

He would ask the wealthier to contribute more to Social Security, which would put it on secure grounds, and he would ask for increased taxes on the wealthier Americans and propose cuts in defense spending. Over 81% of Americans favor a surtax on those people earning over $1 million a year and on billionaires. Interestingly, Dave Stockman said that these taxes would not be enough and that the middle class would have to pay more.

So will Obama cave? And what does that mean? Richard Wolfe says that the Obama White House has been planning for this moment since the December deal. He claims that President Obama was waiting for the unveiling of the Ryan Plan and the torrent of criticism of it. Then President Obama will emerged as the only sane person in the room and set the language of the debate. Wonderful if true but alot of people are concerned that the insane is dictating the terms and rhythmn of the debate. This means Obama always ends up negitiating with himself before he even meets Republican obstructionism. There is real concern among progressives about Obama's true identity. Is he really a Democrat?

Meanwhile PPP has a devastating poll out on attitudes toward the Republican House. Americans were happier with Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats by wide margins. Democrats has over a 5 point generic lead right now. John Boehner is finally beginning to be known by the public and he isn't liked. Some of the state polling is fascinating. For instance, in New Hampshire the approval ratings for the new Republicans have gone through the floor--making Scott Walker look popular. Charlie Cook still holds to the view that the Republicans will lose the House in 2012 if they allow the vote to privatize Medicare. As of today, they really are going ahead with it. Make our Day!

Oh by the way, Mitt Romney announced for President on the fifth anniversary of Romneycare. He adopted the same campaign slogan as John Kerry. And he's running as a CEO who knows how to create jobs--even though he never has. It all came off clumsy and he comes off as an empty suit. But who knows--Mormons are in this year.