Now For Something Completely Different--Obama Wins Re-election

Allan J. Lichtman in a local Maryland newspaper printed his year ahead prediction about the presidential election. He says forget the polls, forget the pundits.

His 13 Keys to the White House predicts every winner and you can't go wrong. Basically, there are 13 Keys, which are phrased for true or false answers, that gauge the performance and strength of the incumbent presidential party. When five or fewer keys are "false" or turn against the party holding the White House, that party wins the presidential election. When six or more are false the challenging party wins.

Lichtman now says that the Democrats now have only three or four keys against them for 2012, two to three short of the fatal six. He claims that these keys give a better balance to predicting the election than those who have emphasized the economy has the single driver of the results.

The three keys Obama has lost are the Mandate key, with the 2010 mid-term results; the Incumbent Charisma/Hero key because he hasn't regained the magic of his campaign; and the Long-term Economy Key. He may lose the Short-Term Economy Key if there is a double-dip recession in 2012. But even with the loss of that key, he would still would have to lose two keys to lose.

He believes that the circumstances are unlikely to shift the verdict of the keys during the next 12 months. He believes the Republicans will not find their Ronald Reagan and a credible Third Party will not emerge. He believes a major disaster abroad seems unlikely. Here I am doubtful, but let's hope. And I don't know whether a Supreme Court ruling against Healthcare then negates the key on Policy Change.

Still sometimes it's good to remind yourself that the noise machine isn't the determining factor of the elections.