Polls

++We are getting into the season when political polls start to have some relevance. Josh Marshall at TPM has a cautionary tale of the situation in Arkansas. He takes the New York Times new substitute of Nate Silver "Upshot" as an example. If you look at the Democratic and the "non-partisan" polls,Pryor is ahead by 4. If you take the GOP pollsters,Cotton is ahead by 4. But if you omit Rasmussen from the "non-partisan" poll and just keep the normal non-partisan polls--Pryor leads by 8. This is the problem with the "aggregators". The proliferation of unreliable GOP pollsters that appeared at the end of the 2012 campaign,have skewed polling results and predictions.

++WMUR/University of New Hampshire has Jeanne Shaheen at 50 and Brown at 38. Sheehan has picked up six points since last month's poll.

++In Florida polls, Gov. Scott has a 45-42 lead over Charlie Crist. Scott has a 9 pt lead among those aged 65 or over.