++I'm for Newt. That would mean a combined 6 wives and 5 religions. The "Family Value" ticket would be nearly 142 years old on election day. It would be outreach to the FOX demographic.
++Now Chris Christie has his own problems,including the Bridgegate has opened up again.
++Now what electoral plusses do these guys bring? Chris is not even above water in approval ratings in New Jersey, has proven he had no appeal as a presidential candidate.
++And people complain about two women on a ticket?
Thursday, June 30, 2016
"We're DOOMED."
++Dear politician, we have not bonded so intimately that such an appeal would make me pull out my wallet. Why if your side is going to win the election,you keep telling me all efforts to raise money is failing and the overside has tons more to spend? And then you tell me you are the number one targeted member of congress and I don't even know where you come from or recognize your name. It seems you need a new appeal.
++I have received more than 100 solicitations from politicians in the last 48 hours. Of course,the most effective are from Elizabeth Warren saying she is all in on these four names and says what will happen if they win. The entire administration has weighed in and Organizing for America fund-raises on specific issues. But these others are amazing. I'm a loser so give to me and feel like a loser too.
++I also got solicitations from my college and graduate school. Now why tell me you need 200 more from my class to reach your goal. It's not my goal. The number indicates you aren't doing well and what happens if you meet your goal--Does the school get a new building? Or one from Harvard,we need X number people within the next 28 hours? Why? As long as I contribute this tax year,that should be cool?
++I know there is a big business to solicit funds but I guess I'm missing something about why so many turn me off.
++I have received more than 100 solicitations from politicians in the last 48 hours. Of course,the most effective are from Elizabeth Warren saying she is all in on these four names and says what will happen if they win. The entire administration has weighed in and Organizing for America fund-raises on specific issues. But these others are amazing. I'm a loser so give to me and feel like a loser too.
++I also got solicitations from my college and graduate school. Now why tell me you need 200 more from my class to reach your goal. It's not my goal. The number indicates you aren't doing well and what happens if you meet your goal--Does the school get a new building? Or one from Harvard,we need X number people within the next 28 hours? Why? As long as I contribute this tax year,that should be cool?
++I know there is a big business to solicit funds but I guess I'm missing something about why so many turn me off.
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
538 PREDICTS 2016 ELECTION.
++Here we go!
++Chances of winning 80.6%, Trump 19.3%
++Clinton 353 electoral votes,Trump 183.7 electoral votes; Gary Johnson 1.3% (don't get that one.)
++Hillary Clinton 48.4%, Donald J.Trump 41.1%, Gary Johnson 9.3%.
++538 raised only a few days ago the prospects of Johnson winning Utah.
++Consider this only Barack Obama has won two consecutive elections for the Democrats with over 50% of the vote. That frustrated Bill Clinton because he never did. Looks like the same for Hillary.
++Chances of winning 80.6%, Trump 19.3%
++Clinton 353 electoral votes,Trump 183.7 electoral votes; Gary Johnson 1.3% (don't get that one.)
++Hillary Clinton 48.4%, Donald J.Trump 41.1%, Gary Johnson 9.3%.
++538 raised only a few days ago the prospects of Johnson winning Utah.
++Consider this only Barack Obama has won two consecutive elections for the Democrats with over 50% of the vote. That frustrated Bill Clinton because he never did. Looks like the same for Hillary.
The Three Amigos Summit In Ottawa; You Are Going To Miss Him When He Goes.
++President Obama announced that North America would get 50% of its energy from renewable sources by 2025. It seems like a bold initiative but this last year it was 37%.
++Bill McKibben took off from throwing his tantrums at the Democratic Platform Committee to issue a statement commending the efforts by the Presidents of Canada,Mexico and the United States but reminding everyone that pledges and actual products are two different things. But he did suggest there were areas of large production.
++Tell me what last American President would think about making such a commitment.
++Bill McKibben took off from throwing his tantrums at the Democratic Platform Committee to issue a statement commending the efforts by the Presidents of Canada,Mexico and the United States but reminding everyone that pledges and actual products are two different things. But he did suggest there were areas of large production.
++Tell me what last American President would think about making such a commitment.
Interesting Developments in Elephant Land.
++Congressional republicans are cutting ads for the fall which urge voters to cast their vote for the Republican so as "to block Hillary's Leftwing agenda." All this indicates is that the GOP are writing this general election off and hoping to preserve their down ballot races.
++On the Senate side, the RNC is investing nothing in the races of Mark Kirk in Illinois,Johnson in Wisconsin, and now the Colorado race against Bennett. That's conceding alot at the beginning of the race.
++Mitch McConnell said today that Trump was not yet a credible candidate. Mitch unloaded his war chest on Kelly Ayotte,who is in the tough race in New Hamsphire.
++Kos himself is weighing in on the battleground polls saying if he had worries as a Democrat it would be in the white states of Iowa, Maine and Wisconsin but he sees Hillary as way ahead.
++On the Senate side, the RNC is investing nothing in the races of Mark Kirk in Illinois,Johnson in Wisconsin, and now the Colorado race against Bennett. That's conceding alot at the beginning of the race.
++Mitch McConnell said today that Trump was not yet a credible candidate. Mitch unloaded his war chest on Kelly Ayotte,who is in the tough race in New Hamsphire.
++Kos himself is weighing in on the battleground polls saying if he had worries as a Democrat it would be in the white states of Iowa, Maine and Wisconsin but he sees Hillary as way ahead.
NATE "THE GREAT" SILVER PREDICTS CLINTON 79% CHANCE OF WINNING THE PRESIDENCY.
++Nate Silver said that while we are at halftime with plenty of football left,Hillary has led every poll and it seems she is on track to win. Nate feels toss-up states may be Arizona,Georgia, Maine and North Carolina this year. Trump has a 20% chance of winning.
BALLOTPEDIA BATTLEGROUND POLL
++(Nate Silver said this poll had good methodology and he accepts about a 7% Clinton lead nationally.)
++Florida Clinton 51%-Trump 37%.
Iowa Clinton 45%-Trump 41%
Michigan Clinton 50%-Trump 33%
North Carolina Clinton 48%-Trump 38%
Ohio Clinton 46%-Trump 37%
Pennsylvania Clinton 49%-Trump 35%
Virginia Clinton 45%-Trump 38%
++7 significant leads. I'm skeptical on North Carolina.
++Florida Clinton 51%-Trump 37%.
Iowa Clinton 45%-Trump 41%
Michigan Clinton 50%-Trump 33%
North Carolina Clinton 48%-Trump 38%
Ohio Clinton 46%-Trump 37%
Pennsylvania Clinton 49%-Trump 35%
Virginia Clinton 45%-Trump 38%
++7 significant leads. I'm skeptical on North Carolina.
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
PPP STATE POLLS.
++Pennsylvania: Clinton 46 TRUMP 42.
++Ohio: Clinton 44 TRUMP 40.
++Iowa: Clinton 41 TRUMP 39
++New Hampshire: Clinton 43 TRUMP 39.
++Wisconsin: Clinton 47 TRUMP 39.
++Arizona: TRUMP 44 Clinton 40.
++Ohio: Clinton 44 TRUMP 40.
++Iowa: Clinton 41 TRUMP 39
++New Hampshire: Clinton 43 TRUMP 39.
++Wisconsin: Clinton 47 TRUMP 39.
++Arizona: TRUMP 44 Clinton 40.
THE REPUBLICANS RELEASE THEIR $7 MILLION #BENGHAZI! REPORT
++Chris Stevens wanted to produce a deliverable for an upcoming trip to Libya of Hillary Clinton. He wanted to announce that Benghazi would become a permanent diplomatic facility.
++The reports says that Hillary Clinton should have known there could be security threats to Benghazi. ( Reader note the House of Representatives cut security funding for our diplomatic missions overseas.) That's about how tough they got.
++Oh, President Obama is at fault because he did not exercise proper leadership.
++Now we go to Hillary's emails.
++The reports says that Hillary Clinton should have known there could be security threats to Benghazi. ( Reader note the House of Representatives cut security funding for our diplomatic missions overseas.) That's about how tough they got.
++Oh, President Obama is at fault because he did not exercise proper leadership.
++Now we go to Hillary's emails.
Monday, June 27, 2016
MELTDOWN CONTINUES: NBC/WSJ POLL
++45% of GOP voters are satisfied with having Donald Trump as their nominee.
++52% of GOP voters want someone else.
++52% of GOP voters want someone else.
DAVID CAMERON DEFENDS HIMSELF BEFORE PARLIAMENT
++Read E. J. Dionne's piece on Brexit and how cameron tried to resolve unsuccessfully internal Tory disputes by holding the referendum,which didn't have to happen.
++If you want to defend yourself after fucking up wildly, David Cameron is doing it well. But he says there will be no second referendum, he will not invoke Article 5 to dissolve the relationship with the European Union, and he will not have a budget that hampers the Chancellor from adopting fiscal measures to protect the economy.
++The stars of course were the Scots who asked him given their overwhelming support for the EU what will happen for Scotland. His response was to get the best deal the UK can from the EU.
++Several members pointed out the lies of the Leave Campaign and the racist attacks after the Leave vote. Cameron denounced these attacks and called on the people to uphold diversity and racial tolerance and promised to prosecute those involved in the attacks.
++Cameron went on how the UK still stands engaged in the world through the UN Security Council,NATO,the Commonwealth, The U20,etc. But his voice just wasn't in it.
++Many members pointed out the economic disaster this vote has brought. The DOW again in down 300, and the pound has dropped to the lowest in over 30 years.
++But my impression was that Cameron is punting and that there is no plan for leaving. He promised he would meet with the EU members tomorrow to start the process of negotiating UK leaving. Good Luck with that.
++Great fun to watch. A later question was how to restore trust in the parties and the experts who properly warned about doom and gloom. Cameron's effort was that experts should prepare different scenarios in all outcomes and they should be presented to the people. Which,of course, didn't happen.
++If you want to defend yourself after fucking up wildly, David Cameron is doing it well. But he says there will be no second referendum, he will not invoke Article 5 to dissolve the relationship with the European Union, and he will not have a budget that hampers the Chancellor from adopting fiscal measures to protect the economy.
++The stars of course were the Scots who asked him given their overwhelming support for the EU what will happen for Scotland. His response was to get the best deal the UK can from the EU.
++Several members pointed out the lies of the Leave Campaign and the racist attacks after the Leave vote. Cameron denounced these attacks and called on the people to uphold diversity and racial tolerance and promised to prosecute those involved in the attacks.
++Cameron went on how the UK still stands engaged in the world through the UN Security Council,NATO,the Commonwealth, The U20,etc. But his voice just wasn't in it.
++Many members pointed out the economic disaster this vote has brought. The DOW again in down 300, and the pound has dropped to the lowest in over 30 years.
++But my impression was that Cameron is punting and that there is no plan for leaving. He promised he would meet with the EU members tomorrow to start the process of negotiating UK leaving. Good Luck with that.
++Great fun to watch. A later question was how to restore trust in the parties and the experts who properly warned about doom and gloom. Cameron's effort was that experts should prepare different scenarios in all outcomes and they should be presented to the people. Which,of course, didn't happen.
HILLARY GETS HER MOJO BACK THANKS TO ELIZABETH WARREN
++The two campaigning together rocked the house as Elizabeth Warren opened with Hillary in Ohio by attacking Trump the way she can and Hillary not missing a beat upped her game by speaking about the economy and how she would have a prosecutor for TPP and how she was going to expand Social Security. She blasted Trump for not having his products made in America and said he was the greatest threat to the world economy.
++The body chemistry worked for both people and together they had a multiplier effect. It's doubtful that Hillary could do better than Elizabeth Warren as VP.
++The body chemistry worked for both people and together they had a multiplier effect. It's doubtful that Hillary could do better than Elizabeth Warren as VP.
Sunday, June 26, 2016
BREXIT MAY NEVER HAPPEN.
++The story gets more bizarre. Sky News reports an interview with a pro-leave Tory who admits they don't have a plan. The Tory said that the only one with a plan was Nicole Sturgeon of Scotland.
++Then Business Insider pointed out the realities of the British government trying to disentangle itself from Europe,especially now that the core arguments about leaving are false. That is that immigration would not be affected. David Cameron had negotiated with Europe separately on that. And that UKIP's promise that $350 million would be put back into the Health care system is bogus and Nigel Farage admitted this on BBC.
++Business Insider reported that pro-leave Tories look pale and withdrawn after the vote because it is dawning on them that they can produce the results. Now that Cameron set the date for October,Britons would have experienced 4 months of misery and may want to reconsider.
++The French told the United States today that there should be no bilateral trade agreement with the UK and that any such move would undermined the prop sects for a transatlantic trade pact. Besides they said such a pact would have to meet EU approval.
++And put this in your pipe and smoke it, British soccer teams would be prohibited from plaiting in the European soccer league. A blessing for European countries who have to put up with soccer hooligans from the UK.
++Just in a day,voters' remorse is made it felt in small towns and villages in England who didn't think about the implications of the vote. Some voters were shocked that immigrants were not leaving on planes because they thought their vote meant they would have to leave. Apparently not.
++Then Business Insider pointed out the realities of the British government trying to disentangle itself from Europe,especially now that the core arguments about leaving are false. That is that immigration would not be affected. David Cameron had negotiated with Europe separately on that. And that UKIP's promise that $350 million would be put back into the Health care system is bogus and Nigel Farage admitted this on BBC.
++Business Insider reported that pro-leave Tories look pale and withdrawn after the vote because it is dawning on them that they can produce the results. Now that Cameron set the date for October,Britons would have experienced 4 months of misery and may want to reconsider.
++The French told the United States today that there should be no bilateral trade agreement with the UK and that any such move would undermined the prop sects for a transatlantic trade pact. Besides they said such a pact would have to meet EU approval.
++And put this in your pipe and smoke it, British soccer teams would be prohibited from plaiting in the European soccer league. A blessing for European countries who have to put up with soccer hooligans from the UK.
++Just in a day,voters' remorse is made it felt in small towns and villages in England who didn't think about the implications of the vote. Some voters were shocked that immigrants were not leaving on planes because they thought their vote meant they would have to leave. Apparently not.
NICOLE STURGEON STANDS TALL.
++Nicole Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister, said she would veto Brexit at the Scottish Parliament. Since every district voted to remain that wouldn't be a hard thing to do. Then Westminister would have to rule and if it ruled negatively we move into a referendum on independence. Then the forces of independence would have the arguments in hand.
++Nicole called the ambassadors of the EU to meet with her about ways Scotland can remain in the EU.
++Angela Merkel said she would welcome Scotland staying in the EU.
++But we have an interesting dilemma. Prime Minister Cameron when he stepped down didn't invoke Article 50 that would start the UK exiting. Instead he left it to his successors who are not so happy about it. It seems it might be impossible to achieve. EU members want a quick separation. But there is no British government with which to negotiate.
++The "Remain" campaign is making noises that the referendum was advisory and that 75% of the population didn't vote as required (72% voted) and "Leave" did not reach 67% in favor(it got barely 51%). The bottom-line is that the referendum was said to be "advisory". Observers said the night of the election for the optics of constitutional legitimacy the vote would have to be honored.
++But Cameron knew that it couldn't be. The ensuing chaos with the Scots' stubbornness might still save the day. Brits are finally wakening up to the disaster they wrought.
++Nicole called the ambassadors of the EU to meet with her about ways Scotland can remain in the EU.
++Angela Merkel said she would welcome Scotland staying in the EU.
++But we have an interesting dilemma. Prime Minister Cameron when he stepped down didn't invoke Article 50 that would start the UK exiting. Instead he left it to his successors who are not so happy about it. It seems it might be impossible to achieve. EU members want a quick separation. But there is no British government with which to negotiate.
++The "Remain" campaign is making noises that the referendum was advisory and that 75% of the population didn't vote as required (72% voted) and "Leave" did not reach 67% in favor(it got barely 51%). The bottom-line is that the referendum was said to be "advisory". Observers said the night of the election for the optics of constitutional legitimacy the vote would have to be honored.
++But Cameron knew that it couldn't be. The ensuing chaos with the Scots' stubbornness might still save the day. Brits are finally wakening up to the disaster they wrought.
ANSWERING THE MILLENNIAL QUESTION
++A Recent poll wanted to survey the 80 million millennials (18-35) about whether they would vote and for whom. This extensive poll canvassed the country by areas.
++83% said they intended to vote in 2016; 10% said they would not; and 7% were unsure.
++Eastern Region: Hillary 60%, Trump 32%
Southern region: Hillary 57%, Trump 27%
Midwest: Hillary 47%, Trump 27%
Western Region: Hillary 54%, Trump 33%.
++That's good news for Hillary given Bernie Sanders' lamebrain appearance on Face the Nation.
++BUT LOOK AT THE MIDWEST NUMBERS. They are TOO SOFT. They mirror the concerns both the Times and Post found in their analyses of Clinton's campaign.
++83% said they intended to vote in 2016; 10% said they would not; and 7% were unsure.
++Eastern Region: Hillary 60%, Trump 32%
Southern region: Hillary 57%, Trump 27%
Midwest: Hillary 47%, Trump 27%
Western Region: Hillary 54%, Trump 33%.
++That's good news for Hillary given Bernie Sanders' lamebrain appearance on Face the Nation.
++BUT LOOK AT THE MIDWEST NUMBERS. They are TOO SOFT. They mirror the concerns both the Times and Post found in their analyses of Clinton's campaign.
THE FIX: CHRIS CILLIZA ON HILLARY'S VP PICK
++Cilizza handicaps the VP pick. He says that Hillary Clinton's trademark is caution. She does leap before she looks--but looks,looks,looks. As a result she doesn't have good political instincts (which worries me). She will not fundamentally change the race in any way. Cillizza thinks that her aides believe all she has to do is block and tackle efficiently until election day and she wins.
++So Cilizza thinks that her VP pick will be someone who will do no harm and is a governance pick. Governor Tim Kaine endorsed her in May 2014 and was Obama's second pick which means he was vetted already for the job.
++His main liability is that he is boring. Is that enough?
++So Cilizza thinks that her VP pick will be someone who will do no harm and is a governance pick. Governor Tim Kaine endorsed her in May 2014 and was Obama's second pick which means he was vetted already for the job.
++His main liability is that he is boring. Is that enough?
WHILE HILLARY IS UP:
++Remember this is summer on the Obama era where horrible things happen whether it is the oil blow out in the Gulf or BREXIT. And Hillary Is riding high but the New York Times and the Washington Post have run articles expressing concern that Hillary is not channeling the rage various constituencies feel . Even Bill Maher raised this issue and asked whether Bill Clinton would help. Paul Begala said he though Bill could talk the white working class done.
++The concern is that Hillary doesn't have ad buys in Michigan and Pennsylvania where white union members are susceptible to Trump's anti-trade tirades. Clinton supporters point out that her ground operation there is fully staffed and ready. Others says that her failure to go aerial soon runs the risk of a Brexit.
++Let's put up her opponent. Republican operatives are refusing to work with him even at the state level. 65% in the new Washington Post poll say he's not qualified to be president because he's a bigot. He lacks the war chest that Hillary has but Cruz backing billionaires are creating a new SuperPac. He has yet to unify the party and more GOP big shots are abandoning him. He has not put in state operations in key battleground states.
++Bernie Sanders has not be useful here. He is having a large impact on the Democratic platform and won major concessions on the make-up of the DNC. But he keeps waffling on if he supports Hillary.
++The concern is that white working males will move from Sanders to Trump. These mornings polls show it is about 20%. Local AFL-CIO officials claim their membership in the mid-West may go 50-50 in the general election.
++In my opinion, Hillary Clinton has given two solid economic speeches recently which are more in line with the old Democratic party's economic platforms. But they don't compare with Elizabeth Warren on the stump. Elizabeth Warren is so far the best Hillary surrogate as recent speeches in New Hampshire show. Besides she brought Dunkin Donuts to the House sit-in on gun control.
++But yes, Hillary doesn't give pyrotechnic speeches and has a tendency to throw away leads, which makes very one nervous.
++To avoid total doom,I have to rely on the knowledge that she has both organization and the money. And in my naiveté,I believe women and minorities will serve as a firewall against Trump's faux populism. The huge question mark right now is the millennials. They came out in big way for the EU in the once United Kingdom but will they come out in the United States?
++Then there is the electoral college. If we can go by any history,Hillary starts off with 240 EVs against Donald's 191. But one always has to have a concern about the Democratic message machine which failed horribly in the 2010 and 2014 by-elections.
++President Obama has been delayed hitting the hustings because of BREIXT and The Supreme Court decision on immigration. But when he hits the road,and Mighty Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren we should see some change in energy.
++I don't know about the "rage" dimension but the energy issue is real and can overcome the "rage."
++The Right has placed their entire hopes on Hillary Clinton being indicted on the e-mail server. Notice how this went from benghazi to classified emails to now just the server itself.But in this year, who knows?
++The Right is mum about Trump's pedophilia and his federal rape case, Trump University or his tax returns. The extent of his mob ties is sporadically covered by the press.
++For his part, Trump tries to make "Crooked Hillary" stick claiming she used the State Department as her private hedge fund and that she laundered funds through the Clinton Foundation. But so far,the only effect is that the electorate doesn't trust either of them but trust Hillary more on security.
++The parallels to Brexit and our general election is inexact. The "Leave" vote was based on perceptions about immigration. Immigration does not rank high as a concern among Democrats or independents. When it does, it has motivated the voter registration campaigns among Latinos.
++We will have to see how the immediate economic fallout of Breixt will affect our public opinion. That's why today marks the high-watermark of Clinton until August.
++The concern is that Hillary doesn't have ad buys in Michigan and Pennsylvania where white union members are susceptible to Trump's anti-trade tirades. Clinton supporters point out that her ground operation there is fully staffed and ready. Others says that her failure to go aerial soon runs the risk of a Brexit.
++Let's put up her opponent. Republican operatives are refusing to work with him even at the state level. 65% in the new Washington Post poll say he's not qualified to be president because he's a bigot. He lacks the war chest that Hillary has but Cruz backing billionaires are creating a new SuperPac. He has yet to unify the party and more GOP big shots are abandoning him. He has not put in state operations in key battleground states.
++Bernie Sanders has not be useful here. He is having a large impact on the Democratic platform and won major concessions on the make-up of the DNC. But he keeps waffling on if he supports Hillary.
++The concern is that white working males will move from Sanders to Trump. These mornings polls show it is about 20%. Local AFL-CIO officials claim their membership in the mid-West may go 50-50 in the general election.
++In my opinion, Hillary Clinton has given two solid economic speeches recently which are more in line with the old Democratic party's economic platforms. But they don't compare with Elizabeth Warren on the stump. Elizabeth Warren is so far the best Hillary surrogate as recent speeches in New Hampshire show. Besides she brought Dunkin Donuts to the House sit-in on gun control.
++But yes, Hillary doesn't give pyrotechnic speeches and has a tendency to throw away leads, which makes very one nervous.
++To avoid total doom,I have to rely on the knowledge that she has both organization and the money. And in my naiveté,I believe women and minorities will serve as a firewall against Trump's faux populism. The huge question mark right now is the millennials. They came out in big way for the EU in the once United Kingdom but will they come out in the United States?
++Then there is the electoral college. If we can go by any history,Hillary starts off with 240 EVs against Donald's 191. But one always has to have a concern about the Democratic message machine which failed horribly in the 2010 and 2014 by-elections.
++President Obama has been delayed hitting the hustings because of BREIXT and The Supreme Court decision on immigration. But when he hits the road,and Mighty Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren we should see some change in energy.
++I don't know about the "rage" dimension but the energy issue is real and can overcome the "rage."
++The Right has placed their entire hopes on Hillary Clinton being indicted on the e-mail server. Notice how this went from benghazi to classified emails to now just the server itself.But in this year, who knows?
++The Right is mum about Trump's pedophilia and his federal rape case, Trump University or his tax returns. The extent of his mob ties is sporadically covered by the press.
++For his part, Trump tries to make "Crooked Hillary" stick claiming she used the State Department as her private hedge fund and that she laundered funds through the Clinton Foundation. But so far,the only effect is that the electorate doesn't trust either of them but trust Hillary more on security.
++The parallels to Brexit and our general election is inexact. The "Leave" vote was based on perceptions about immigration. Immigration does not rank high as a concern among Democrats or independents. When it does, it has motivated the voter registration campaigns among Latinos.
++We will have to see how the immediate economic fallout of Breixt will affect our public opinion. That's why today marks the high-watermark of Clinton until August.
Saturday, June 25, 2016
Friday, June 24, 2016
The Aftermath
++First,travel tip--go to the former UK and Scotland now because it will be the cheaper than at any other time since the mid-1980s. Also there is a window before England becomes grungy--the effects will take about three years.
++I've spent most of the day reading millennials reactions to Brexit and they are sad. The vote against standing in the EU dooms the next generation from not being able to work and live in 26 other countries and have a freedom of movement available as an EU member.
++The Scottish reaction was quite clear that Scotland embraces the future and voted for the EU at every age level and class. The reason I tend not to like Ian Rankin's late novels is that they are so Eurocentric but Scotland seems comfortable being open to Europe. Long may the rampant lion roar.
++I received e-mails from a conservative my age who thought this was a vote against experts and elites. Partly true but those experts even ridiculed on BBC turn out to be true in the short term. And Nigel Farage of UKIP admitted this morning that he lied about all the figures he used to campaign against "remaining " in the European Union. But the politics of lies is ok for "all the honest people" who voted against the European Union. The English burned down the house last night.
++In the same email where I sent the conservative the Scotsman's article about Scotland having to have a new referendum he said that would raise security issues about RAF bases and where submarines would find safe harbor. But those issues weren't raised in the "Leave" campaign about Calais or Ireland.
++Josh Marshall had several posts today about Breixit but the most telling one was a response from one of his readers working at the US Trade Representative's office. All this speculation that it is a snap to develop a d trade agreement with England is rubbish. Even Obama sort of suggested it could be done quickly. But this reader said because the office is underfunded--gee I wonder why--and understaffed, it has to focus on trade negotiations with China and the other countries of the European Union and that Britain has to stay in the queue. And because of EU priorities ,American playing favorites with England after it dissed Europe would not go over well.
++Josh reproduces American conservatives' reactions to Brexit. I found it ironic that all the writers were millennials who never realized their generational counterparts are not imprisoned for almost 60 years in yesterday's decision. Instead our guys said this would allow England to become a glorious superpower again.
++Josh Marshall's response was that the Sainted figure Winston Churchill was a Europeanist who fought against the Colonel Blimp stereotype and that the European Union with all its flaws was part of an American encouraged project to create a Europe that would not be ravaged by war.
++The Spanish government reacted with panache tweeting images of posters welcoming British Refugees. But the EU was quite curt by saying you voted to leave,leave tomorrow. There should be no delay.
++I thought of a great Scottish member of the European Parliament who has argued with me against Scottish independence for years . He is the head of a committee that oversees Iraqi refugees and human rights violations in that country. He has built up years of institutional knowledge--yes, he may be called an expert. He has to go with this vote and that is a blow to human rights and means that his European colleagues will have to go without his advise.
++Throughout the European bureaucracy,there are thousands of British citizens who will have to be removed. That is a loss of talent and memory for a gratuitous vote.
++The Washington Post ran a piece by a British millennial who castigated the Baby-Boomers for being so selfish to doom her generation to isolationism. It was touching and we should remember not to be tempted to make dramatic political decisions which we know will close off opportunities for any of our fellow citizens. Or our victims may end up eating the rich.
++Policy is boring. I know but to get it wrong has catastrophic and unintended effects. and yes,you might have to consult experts. You'll be surprised what you learn. Ask one something. They generally live a lonely existence and will love to talk about their subject.
++Josh Marshall wrote a piece today saying that the demographics resisting change in the UK resemble our own here in the States. Embrace the change. Let the millennials go free. They engage the world more openly than the older generation and should be allowed to explore the future.
++The UK made a breathtaking decision to wallow in their past and to cut themselves off from a more open future.
++I've spent most of the day reading millennials reactions to Brexit and they are sad. The vote against standing in the EU dooms the next generation from not being able to work and live in 26 other countries and have a freedom of movement available as an EU member.
++The Scottish reaction was quite clear that Scotland embraces the future and voted for the EU at every age level and class. The reason I tend not to like Ian Rankin's late novels is that they are so Eurocentric but Scotland seems comfortable being open to Europe. Long may the rampant lion roar.
++I received e-mails from a conservative my age who thought this was a vote against experts and elites. Partly true but those experts even ridiculed on BBC turn out to be true in the short term. And Nigel Farage of UKIP admitted this morning that he lied about all the figures he used to campaign against "remaining " in the European Union. But the politics of lies is ok for "all the honest people" who voted against the European Union. The English burned down the house last night.
++In the same email where I sent the conservative the Scotsman's article about Scotland having to have a new referendum he said that would raise security issues about RAF bases and where submarines would find safe harbor. But those issues weren't raised in the "Leave" campaign about Calais or Ireland.
++Josh Marshall had several posts today about Breixit but the most telling one was a response from one of his readers working at the US Trade Representative's office. All this speculation that it is a snap to develop a d trade agreement with England is rubbish. Even Obama sort of suggested it could be done quickly. But this reader said because the office is underfunded--gee I wonder why--and understaffed, it has to focus on trade negotiations with China and the other countries of the European Union and that Britain has to stay in the queue. And because of EU priorities ,American playing favorites with England after it dissed Europe would not go over well.
++Josh reproduces American conservatives' reactions to Brexit. I found it ironic that all the writers were millennials who never realized their generational counterparts are not imprisoned for almost 60 years in yesterday's decision. Instead our guys said this would allow England to become a glorious superpower again.
++Josh Marshall's response was that the Sainted figure Winston Churchill was a Europeanist who fought against the Colonel Blimp stereotype and that the European Union with all its flaws was part of an American encouraged project to create a Europe that would not be ravaged by war.
++The Spanish government reacted with panache tweeting images of posters welcoming British Refugees. But the EU was quite curt by saying you voted to leave,leave tomorrow. There should be no delay.
++I thought of a great Scottish member of the European Parliament who has argued with me against Scottish independence for years . He is the head of a committee that oversees Iraqi refugees and human rights violations in that country. He has built up years of institutional knowledge--yes, he may be called an expert. He has to go with this vote and that is a blow to human rights and means that his European colleagues will have to go without his advise.
++Throughout the European bureaucracy,there are thousands of British citizens who will have to be removed. That is a loss of talent and memory for a gratuitous vote.
++The Washington Post ran a piece by a British millennial who castigated the Baby-Boomers for being so selfish to doom her generation to isolationism. It was touching and we should remember not to be tempted to make dramatic political decisions which we know will close off opportunities for any of our fellow citizens. Or our victims may end up eating the rich.
++Policy is boring. I know but to get it wrong has catastrophic and unintended effects. and yes,you might have to consult experts. You'll be surprised what you learn. Ask one something. They generally live a lonely existence and will love to talk about their subject.
++Josh Marshall wrote a piece today saying that the demographics resisting change in the UK resemble our own here in the States. Embrace the change. Let the millennials go free. They engage the world more openly than the older generation and should be allowed to explore the future.
++The UK made a breathtaking decision to wallow in their past and to cut themselves off from a more open future.
ODD OBSERVATION
++The Dow ended down 606 points. If we were in the era of George W. Bush,that would mean the Dow would be standing at 115. WOW! Would they let it exist? Lucky we have Obama and it's just a slight loss.
THE WEEK THAT WAS
++Both British parties were so divided on Brexit that they couldn't get their message straight. The Scottish Party was fairly consistent. As a result the Brits lost two party leaders in the fracas.
++Ironically,Wales, which receives the most EU investment and funds,voted to leave. Same with the South of England.
++Why it was apparent through the night that voters were reacting to the austerity programs of David Cameron and blaming the lack of services on either the Conservative Party or immigrants. The older voter, who doesn't really have to live with their decision a lifetime voted to leave but the millennials voted to stay.
++Parts of England which were ravished during the Thatcher period such as the coal-mining areas gave the Leave the momentum.
++In one fell swoop,the UK no longer is the world's fifth economy. But the voters didn't buy that the EU brought financial benefits because they didn't see them in their daily life. Also there was widespread skepticism about experts who proclaimed how complicated leaving would be.
++The parallel here in the States is the policy-nihilism of the Republicans.This past week we saw Paul Ryan unveil his outline of an alternative to Obamacare. There is no draft legislation because no one on the Republican side of the House can draft any such legislation. It also is very dishonest because Ryan points to the number uninsured without mentioning 19 Republican governors refuse to extend Medicaid to their citizens. He also doesn't account for the $2 trillion Obamacare saves Americans over 10 years.
++But that doesn't matter like the anti-EU campaign said the UK would save $354 million pounds per week if they withdrew. This morning they admitted this was false as well as their exaggeration about refugees flooding England. They are not part of the EU refugee repatriation program.
++We saw this week Donald Trump's speech against Hillary Clinton where he too lied about how many Syrian refugees should would allow into the country. I hope more than President Obama has admitted. But the key immigration issue to remember is that since 2009, more Mexicans have left this country than entered. But it is the optics that matter. In England, the Conservative Party became the UNIP party of LaFarge. Like the GOP will with Trump.
++We saw John Lewis lead a sit-down in the House because Paul Ryan would not allow a bill on guns be voted on. Just voted on. The NRA said Lewis was a terrorist.
++At the Supreme Court, the GOP's strategy to gut our judicial system is working when they have not held a hearing for Merrick Garland simply because a black man nominated him.
++The result was a non-decision on immigration. This allows the Dreamers to stay but postpones the legalization of immigrants who have stayed here for years. That's approximately 5 million people affected.
++The good news is that the Court had to affirm again you can use affirmative action in college admissions.
++On the internet,it appears that the Democrats are fired up because of taking a stance on gun control and forcing the Republicans to get on the record.
++Our salvation lies with women, African-Americans and Hispanics and the millennials. It is obvious white males on both sides of the Atlantic have lost the ability to govern.
++Ironically,Wales, which receives the most EU investment and funds,voted to leave. Same with the South of England.
++Why it was apparent through the night that voters were reacting to the austerity programs of David Cameron and blaming the lack of services on either the Conservative Party or immigrants. The older voter, who doesn't really have to live with their decision a lifetime voted to leave but the millennials voted to stay.
++Parts of England which were ravished during the Thatcher period such as the coal-mining areas gave the Leave the momentum.
++In one fell swoop,the UK no longer is the world's fifth economy. But the voters didn't buy that the EU brought financial benefits because they didn't see them in their daily life. Also there was widespread skepticism about experts who proclaimed how complicated leaving would be.
++The parallel here in the States is the policy-nihilism of the Republicans.This past week we saw Paul Ryan unveil his outline of an alternative to Obamacare. There is no draft legislation because no one on the Republican side of the House can draft any such legislation. It also is very dishonest because Ryan points to the number uninsured without mentioning 19 Republican governors refuse to extend Medicaid to their citizens. He also doesn't account for the $2 trillion Obamacare saves Americans over 10 years.
++But that doesn't matter like the anti-EU campaign said the UK would save $354 million pounds per week if they withdrew. This morning they admitted this was false as well as their exaggeration about refugees flooding England. They are not part of the EU refugee repatriation program.
++We saw this week Donald Trump's speech against Hillary Clinton where he too lied about how many Syrian refugees should would allow into the country. I hope more than President Obama has admitted. But the key immigration issue to remember is that since 2009, more Mexicans have left this country than entered. But it is the optics that matter. In England, the Conservative Party became the UNIP party of LaFarge. Like the GOP will with Trump.
++We saw John Lewis lead a sit-down in the House because Paul Ryan would not allow a bill on guns be voted on. Just voted on. The NRA said Lewis was a terrorist.
++At the Supreme Court, the GOP's strategy to gut our judicial system is working when they have not held a hearing for Merrick Garland simply because a black man nominated him.
++The result was a non-decision on immigration. This allows the Dreamers to stay but postpones the legalization of immigrants who have stayed here for years. That's approximately 5 million people affected.
++The good news is that the Court had to affirm again you can use affirmative action in college admissions.
++On the internet,it appears that the Democrats are fired up because of taking a stance on gun control and forcing the Republicans to get on the record.
++Our salvation lies with women, African-Americans and Hispanics and the millennials. It is obvious white males on both sides of the Atlantic have lost the ability to govern.
NICOLA STURGEON,SCOTLAND'S FIRST MINISTER PREPARES LEGISLATION FOR ANOTHER INDYREF.
++Virtually every electoral district voted to "remain" in the European Union. By the early morning in the UK, the Scottish National Party made it clear it would have to re-do the independence referendum.
++Scottish ministers said that the campaign against independence had been predicated on staying in the European Union and the promises by David Cameron on devolution. Since the first has been voted down, the second is unfeasible, Scotland will have to go again for independence.
++Places like the Orkney Islands had voted against independence last time but overwhelmingly voted to "Remain" this time.
++Scottish ministers said that the campaign against independence had been predicated on staying in the European Union and the promises by David Cameron on devolution. Since the first has been voted down, the second is unfeasible, Scotland will have to go again for independence.
++Places like the Orkney Islands had voted against independence last time but overwhelmingly voted to "Remain" this time.
Thursday, June 23, 2016
A WAR FROM BEFORE I WAS BORN SEEMS TO BE OVER
++FARC and the Colombian government signed a ceasefire in Havana and the guerrillas disarmed. This war begun in 1948 inspired Fidel Castro's own revolution and has resulted in 100s of thousands dead. If the agreement holds ,it will be one of the biggest accomplishments in decades.
270 To Win
++270 to Win has all the state polls to date for your reference. It seems you have toss-ups in North Carolina,Ohio, Pennsylvania,and New Hampshire. The appalling poll is Colorado which disappointed in 2014 leaving my friend Mark Udall the loser. I still don't understand how Colorado went Red.
++ Yes, Hillary is crushing it in New York,New Jersey,California and Virginia pretty much. She leads in Arizona--so that's not out of the question. She pretty much wraps up Michigan so that route is closed for Trump. Florida looks good too.
++But she is behind in Indiana, home of the KKK,slightly ahead in Missouri, ahead in Iowa, way ahead in Illinois.
++Sam Wang at Princeton says that with lill Marco in the race in Florida, odds are a 51 GOP-49 Dem. Senate. Ugh!
++ Yes, Hillary is crushing it in New York,New Jersey,California and Virginia pretty much. She leads in Arizona--so that's not out of the question. She pretty much wraps up Michigan so that route is closed for Trump. Florida looks good too.
++But she is behind in Indiana, home of the KKK,slightly ahead in Missouri, ahead in Iowa, way ahead in Illinois.
++Sam Wang at Princeton says that with lill Marco in the race in Florida, odds are a 51 GOP-49 Dem. Senate. Ugh!
VOX SAYS IT IS TIM KAINE
++Dylan Matthews at VOX cites the latest Politico article that Hillary has Tim Kaine as her choice because he is low risk, been thoroughly vetted, and passes the presidential test. The downside is he is boring and doesn't put sparkle in the ticket like Elizabeth Warren does. The thinking is that with Warren and Booker Democrats can't seem to elect Governors when they need to and Clinton wouldn't risk Senate seats over this. TMac,Virginia's current governor,ensures a Democratic replacement.
++Matthews says Kaine is very popular in Virginia--true I live here-and is a safeguard in a battleground state. OK.
++Matthews says Kaine is very popular in Virginia--true I live here-and is a safeguard in a battleground state. OK.
JOSH MARSHALL OPINES ABOUT BREIXIT
++Marshall thinks it is goofy since the UK isn't bound by the EU agreements on immigration our anti-terrorism, which would ensure their departure. They don't even have to have the Euro. Leaving still means they have to leave up to EU trade rules.
++It would however put pressure on Downing Street to establish another Scottish referendum.
JOSH MARSHALL GETS NO FURTHER TOWARD THE TRUTH.
++Josh Marshall got into an email exchange with Mark Cuban on whether Trump is a billionaire. Read the exchange at Talking Points because Cuban is very waffly. He concludes Trump probably is because of the Manhattan real estate he owns but doesn't offer any other clues.
MARTIN LONGMAN At Washington Monthly
++Martin Longman says the Clinton campaign should commit to ad buys in Pennsylvania and Arizona. He doesn't believe the Democrats can win Arizona but ad buys would force the GOP to spend what should be a Red State.
++Pennsylvania because she has adbuys in all battleground states and Longman says Nate Silver warns about Pennsylvania which has gone Democratic in the last six being vulnerable.
++Pennsylvania because she has adbuys in all battleground states and Longman says Nate Silver warns about Pennsylvania which has gone Democratic in the last six being vulnerable.
E.J. Dionne Says Trump Insults Everyone's Religion
++E.J. Dionne went on about Trump saying we don't know anything about her religious beliefs. EJ reminded the readers of Carl Bernstein's biography of Hillary where he wrote that her Methodism was the "central element of her life". E.J. reminds us again that Hillary Clinton talked to the Methodist Women's Association in 2014 and said that Methodism not only brought salvation but demanded social justice.
++E.J. said don't worry. The Donald even questioned recently whether Mitt Romney was really Mormon. He also raised questions about Ben Carson's Seventh Day Adventism.
++Donald is an equal opportunity bigot.
++E.J. said don't worry. The Donald even questioned recently whether Mitt Romney was really Mormon. He also raised questions about Ben Carson's Seventh Day Adventism.
++Donald is an equal opportunity bigot.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
RELIGIOUS RIGHT LEADER DISSENTS
++Michael Farris,the leader of the Moral Majority in Washington state and one of the national leaders of the Home Schooling Association ,opposed the meeting of about 1,000 religious right leaders at Trump Tower.
++"This meeting is the end of the Christian Right. We thought Christianity could influence politics. But here you see politics influencing 1,000 church leaders."
++"This is a day of mourning."
++"This meeting is the end of the Christian Right. We thought Christianity could influence politics. But here you see politics influencing 1,000 church leaders."
++"This is a day of mourning."
WELL,THAT WAS QUICK.
++Deborah Fikes, executive advisory to the World Evangelical Alliance, which has 129 churches in the world, said today Donald Trump is "unChristian".
++"Hillary Clinton is the leader who people of faith are looking for and we are praying that Sister Hillary and not Mr. Trump will be elected in November."
++"Hillary Clinton is the leader who people of faith are looking for and we are praying that Sister Hillary and not Mr. Trump will be elected in November."
The Biggest Threat To The Economy
++Catherine Rampell writes today in the Washington Post that the single greatest threat to the U.S. Economy is Donald J.Trump.
++Rampell says that Trump's economic policy proposals Moody Analytics found to be "catastrophic". They would push America into a two-year recession that would be the largest downturn since the Great Depression. They would cost millions of jobs.
++Trump's proposals would increase federal deficits by about $10 trillion over a decade, according to the Tax Policy Center. And Trump has offered few offsetting spending reductions.
++He makes Hillary Clinton a fiscal conservative given that the net fiscal impact of her own platform is close to zero. Rampell says that his plans would massively destabilize the U.S. economy.
++And that's because government borrowing at the scale Trump's plans envision would cause interest rates to rise, which then would crowd out private sector activities such as housing,consumer spending and business investment.
++Rampell writes that if Congress gave Trump everything the US economy would be 6.5 percent smaller than it would have been under current policies. Moody's estimates it would be 9.4 million fewer jobs.
++She writes that these forecasts are terrifying and voters may voluntarily bring a Category 5 economic hurricane upon themselves. And for what? To "shake things up". To give "the middle finger to the establishment" ? To make Washington more entertaining or less politically correct?
++The only one who would come out of it better would be Donald J. Trump.
++Rampell says that Trump's economic policy proposals Moody Analytics found to be "catastrophic". They would push America into a two-year recession that would be the largest downturn since the Great Depression. They would cost millions of jobs.
++Trump's proposals would increase federal deficits by about $10 trillion over a decade, according to the Tax Policy Center. And Trump has offered few offsetting spending reductions.
++He makes Hillary Clinton a fiscal conservative given that the net fiscal impact of her own platform is close to zero. Rampell says that his plans would massively destabilize the U.S. economy.
++And that's because government borrowing at the scale Trump's plans envision would cause interest rates to rise, which then would crowd out private sector activities such as housing,consumer spending and business investment.
++Rampell writes that if Congress gave Trump everything the US economy would be 6.5 percent smaller than it would have been under current policies. Moody's estimates it would be 9.4 million fewer jobs.
++She writes that these forecasts are terrifying and voters may voluntarily bring a Category 5 economic hurricane upon themselves. And for what? To "shake things up". To give "the middle finger to the establishment" ? To make Washington more entertaining or less politically correct?
++The only one who would come out of it better would be Donald J. Trump.
HILLARY DOWN TO 3 FOR VP.
++Julian Castro,Elizabeth Warren,and Tim Kaine.
++The Washington Monthly made a semi pitch on Tim Kaine. They reasoned that he creates a firewall for Hillary in Virginia,which really shrinks the path for Trump.
++Tim Kaine was a mayor of Richmond,lt. governor and governor of Virginia, the head of the DNC and is a sitting Senator. He is fluent in Spanish from his missionary days. He was President Obama's second choice.
++He is the Washington Post's favorite.
++Chuck Schumer opposes Elizabeth Warren and Wall Street is threatening Hillary Clinton they may cut donations if it is Warren.
++Julian Castro is to punch the Hispanic ticket.
++All patriotic Americans are for Elizabeth Warren or are ISIS supporters.
++On the other side, Bill O'Reilly last night was trying to sell Trump on Newt Gingrich.
++I guess that makes Kaine alright.
++The Washington Monthly made a semi pitch on Tim Kaine. They reasoned that he creates a firewall for Hillary in Virginia,which really shrinks the path for Trump.
++Tim Kaine was a mayor of Richmond,lt. governor and governor of Virginia, the head of the DNC and is a sitting Senator. He is fluent in Spanish from his missionary days. He was President Obama's second choice.
++He is the Washington Post's favorite.
++Chuck Schumer opposes Elizabeth Warren and Wall Street is threatening Hillary Clinton they may cut donations if it is Warren.
++Julian Castro is to punch the Hispanic ticket.
++All patriotic Americans are for Elizabeth Warren or are ISIS supporters.
++On the other side, Bill O'Reilly last night was trying to sell Trump on Newt Gingrich.
++I guess that makes Kaine alright.
TRUMP's FIRST FUND-RAISING LETTER
++Talking Points Memo has a piece about Trump's first fund-raising letter where he will match the contribution dollar for dollar personally.
++But check out the signature. Dementia or what? It's not the business tycoon scrawl or the check-signing name. It shows confusion and incoherence.
++But check out the signature. Dementia or what? It's not the business tycoon scrawl or the check-signing name. It shows confusion and incoherence.
Ed Kilgore Goes On About Trump's Meeting with The Religious Right
++Ed Kilgore spends most of his New York column on how well-known Hillary Clinton's Methodism is over the years. Ed recounts vignettes about Hillary cleaning the alter at her childhood church and her activities for a social justice Methodism during her high school years. Hillary was known for carrying a bible around in her pocketbook during the Clinton presidency and organized the prayer breakfasts.
++Trump said he wouldn't be "political correct" to pray for political leaders who were selling out America. Ed reminds Donald Jesus said to pray even for your enemies.
++Trump said he wouldn't be "political correct" to pray for political leaders who were selling out America. Ed reminds Donald Jesus said to pray even for your enemies.
THE DONALD SAYS THERE IS "NOTHING OUT THERE" ON HILLARY'S RELIGIOUS FAITH
++Now he says this to an assembly of so-called "Christian" leaders at TRUMP Tower. Hillary Clinton has been in the public eye for a generation, These assembled fundamentalists have been around for a generation. Now re they going to bear "false witness'?
++I'll make it easy for everyone--Google Clinton's remarks on religion at the Iowa primary. That's this year.
++"But some people say" is the Trump meme for introducing a conspiracy theory. This one doesn't have enough legs on it to make it out the door.
++I'll make it easy for everyone--Google Clinton's remarks on religion at the Iowa primary. That's this year.
++"But some people say" is the Trump meme for introducing a conspiracy theory. This one doesn't have enough legs on it to make it out the door.
SO HOW DOES TRUMP COUNTER?
++For all of Hillary Clinton's political life, one constant theme has been her upbringing as a Methodist and how her high school minister got her involved in civil rights, even taking her to a gathering where Martin Luther King spoke. The Left still complain that she was a Goldwater Girl and this demonstrates her dark neoconservatism. But no one right or left has questioned her religious faith.
++But today the Donald did at a gathering of the religious Right. I doubt whether it will go far and even if used by fundamentalists the conservative commentariat will attack saying the evangelicals now worship Mammon.
++But today the Donald did at a gathering of the religious Right. I doubt whether it will go far and even if used by fundamentalists the conservative commentariat will attack saying the evangelicals now worship Mammon.
YES,JOSH MARSHALL,HILLARY DID GO THERE.
++In her speech in Ohio,Hillary Clinton did pick up Marshall's theme that Trump isn't as rich as he pretends. "He's written alot of books on business. They all end in Chapter 11."
++Clinton has lots of ammunition for today's speech with the Wall Street Journal printing Moody's Analytics summary of what Trump's plans would do to the economy. The report was written by Mark Zandi ,McCain's former economic adviser.
++Moody said that Trump's prescriptions for taxation,trade policy,immigration and spending are "fiscally unsound" and would cost the economy 3.5 million jobs and leave the economy "more isolated and diminished" with a strain on low and middle-income workers.
++His immigration and trade proposals if taken at face value would cause the economy to experience a "negative supply shock". Moody's said his proposals for tariffs would increase the price of imported goods.
++Weirdly polls show voters trust Trump more on the economy. But as Jake Sullivan,her primary economic adviser,says," You need to deconstruct Trump's image."
++Clinton has lots of ammunition for today's speech with the Wall Street Journal printing Moody's Analytics summary of what Trump's plans would do to the economy. The report was written by Mark Zandi ,McCain's former economic adviser.
++Moody said that Trump's prescriptions for taxation,trade policy,immigration and spending are "fiscally unsound" and would cost the economy 3.5 million jobs and leave the economy "more isolated and diminished" with a strain on low and middle-income workers.
++His immigration and trade proposals if taken at face value would cause the economy to experience a "negative supply shock". Moody's said his proposals for tariffs would increase the price of imported goods.
++Weirdly polls show voters trust Trump more on the economy. But as Jake Sullivan,her primary economic adviser,says," You need to deconstruct Trump's image."
MARTIN LONGMAN ON THE VERY NARROW PATH TO A TRUMP VICTORY
++Martin Longman at Washington Monthly writes today that Trump's possibility of reaching 270 electoral votes is probably down to one path. He must win Ohio,Pennsylvania and Michigan. Longman writes off Florida as no longer being a swing-state.
++Longman says he struggled to get Trump over the bar by giving him Virginia, pretending Georgia and Arizona will not be competitive.
++Longman says he struggled to get Trump over the bar by giving him Virginia, pretending Georgia and Arizona will not be competitive.
CNN/ORC POLL
++Clinton 47%, Trump 42%. 22% could change their mind by election day.
++If poll includes Johnson and Stein.
Clinton 42%
Trump 38%
Johnson 9%
Stein 7%
++If poll includes Johnson and Stein.
Clinton 42%
Trump 38%
Johnson 9%
Stein 7%
YEP,TRUMP'S STONE BROKE
++Josh Marshall explains the latest FEC filings, which show Trump would be doing well for a House race. Ben Carson right now has more campaign funds than Trump. Marshall points out that 10% of the funds went to Trump enterprises.
++On the other hand Hillary is about where she should be after fighting a contested primary.
++Josh again argues that if Trump were really worth billions he could have put millions in his own coffers,which he didn't do. Now the GOP is holding the bag.
++On the other hand Hillary is about where she should be after fighting a contested primary.
++Josh again argues that if Trump were really worth billions he could have put millions in his own coffers,which he didn't do. Now the GOP is holding the bag.
Monday, June 20, 2016
TRUMP ONLY HAS $1.3 Million Cash On Hand.
++The numbers are out and it looks ugly. Donald J.Trump starts off with the biggest deficit in fund-raising than any other candidate for a major party in history.
++The delegate revolt is said to exceed several hundred.
++Michael Gerson just won't give up. In the Post, he writes "A Delegate Revolt Has Become the Republicans' Only Option.' He calls Trump a "niche candidate" that panders to racism and xenophobia.
++He invokes Abraham Lincoln to shame Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and Reince Priebus to stand up to the Donald. Michael urges that the GOP pick not be a candidate Trump beat. He says that the rules committee is staffed with party people rather than Trump people and they can make the delegate's choice non-binding on the first ballot. He admits a delegate revolt will be ugly.
++Like burning down Cleveland?!
++The delegate revolt is said to exceed several hundred.
++Michael Gerson just won't give up. In the Post, he writes "A Delegate Revolt Has Become the Republicans' Only Option.' He calls Trump a "niche candidate" that panders to racism and xenophobia.
++He invokes Abraham Lincoln to shame Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and Reince Priebus to stand up to the Donald. Michael urges that the GOP pick not be a candidate Trump beat. He says that the rules committee is staffed with party people rather than Trump people and they can make the delegate's choice non-binding on the first ballot. He admits a delegate revolt will be ugly.
++Like burning down Cleveland?!
Jonathan Chait and Ed Kilgore Debate Whether the GOP Should Dump the Trump.
++A fascinating read Chait dumping Trump while Kilgore said that beneath a Trump loss will be hidden treasure for the GOP. He says the Senate will be primed in 2018 for the GOP comeback and with three Democratic terms in a row the GOP would be ready for a 2020 blowout and to benefit again from more redistricting. Chait argues a candidate less hostile to millennials and minorities would allow a smaller lost and a better future.
Good read.
Good read.
NEW MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY POLL
++All voters: Clinton 47%, Trump 41%.
++LIkely Voters: Clinton 49, Trump 41%.
Remember I said August polls were decisive but these polls should have shown a slight Trump bounce after sewing up the nomination and then after Orlando. This is very bad for the Trump campaign.
++LIkely Voters: Clinton 49, Trump 41%.
Remember I said August polls were decisive but these polls should have shown a slight Trump bounce after sewing up the nomination and then after Orlando. This is very bad for the Trump campaign.
Karl Rove Is Mad At Trump
++Ed Kilgore in New York reviews the Wall Street Journal by Karl Rove on how the Donald is blowing it by not buying ads and outsourcing his ground game to the RNC. Karl is actually right that Trump is throwing out the conventional wisdom of a general election and gambling big on his view he can get all the free air-timne he needs. Rover actually explains how deficient that reasoning is.
"The Real News Is That TRUMP IS Broke.'
++Josh Marshall, being the nudge on this issue, explains how the Trump campaign has $2.4 million in the bank and can't bankroll ads in the swing states. Marshall goes further into this conundrum and suggest again that Trump is even broke himself.
++The Columbus Dispatch, who covers Ohio, reports that Hillary has been on the ground for at least three weeks with Obama's Ohio coordinator and the whole support staff of data processors and GOTV people. Trump isn't there but Republicans promise there will be something within a week.
++The Utah state chairman of the GOP flew to Las Vegas to meet with Trump to warn him of the effect his rhetoric is playing in Utah. He was told that "it was all just part of the act."
++Dana Millbank writes this morning about how the Trump campaign has become catastrophic. The campaign sort of manager was fired and the Trump team is supposed to be gathering in New York today to discuss the reorganization.
++The Columbus Dispatch, who covers Ohio, reports that Hillary has been on the ground for at least three weeks with Obama's Ohio coordinator and the whole support staff of data processors and GOTV people. Trump isn't there but Republicans promise there will be something within a week.
++The Utah state chairman of the GOP flew to Las Vegas to meet with Trump to warn him of the effect his rhetoric is playing in Utah. He was told that "it was all just part of the act."
++Dana Millbank writes this morning about how the Trump campaign has become catastrophic. The campaign sort of manager was fired and the Trump team is supposed to be gathering in New York today to discuss the reorganization.
Sunday, June 19, 2016
Saturday, June 18, 2016
POLITICAL WIRE SAYS TRUMP'S TOXICITY MAKES VP LIST SHORT
++Chris Christie,Newt Gingrich,Jeff Sessions, and Mary Fallin from Oklahoma.
++With Newt==the two would have six wives and could be the family values ticket.
++With Newt==the two would have six wives and could be the family values ticket.
The Math Is Not On Trump's Side.
++Rebecca Traister appeared on Bill Maher's show and revealed a fact I didn't know. 23% of the electorate this year are single women. Single women provided Obama with the winning demographic in both 2008 and 2012.With the % of the electorate being 52% woman and 3/4rds of them already saying they won't vote for Trump,the math gets daunting. This nation is now a majority unmarried state.
++It is usual to say that the GOP has 191 electoral votes going into the general election. But already political commentators are speaking about Arizona and Georgia being in play for the Democrats. (I doubt this year will see this happen.)
++But the Dailykos has analysis of how difficult it is for Trump to get to 270. Contrary to typical Republican strategy, he has to move toward a sweep in the Midwest. But Ohio governor Kasich and Michigan's Snyder --both Republicans--are against Trump. Minnesota is a relatively well-run state by the Democrats and the republicans have won Wisconsin since 1988.
++To pull this hat trick off, Trump actually has to have a ground game. He simply can't rely on flying in at the spur of the moment.
++As Jason linking said Trump's campaign strategy is an off-track mess.
++It is usual to say that the GOP has 191 electoral votes going into the general election. But already political commentators are speaking about Arizona and Georgia being in play for the Democrats. (I doubt this year will see this happen.)
++But the Dailykos has analysis of how difficult it is for Trump to get to 270. Contrary to typical Republican strategy, he has to move toward a sweep in the Midwest. But Ohio governor Kasich and Michigan's Snyder --both Republicans--are against Trump. Minnesota is a relatively well-run state by the Democrats and the republicans have won Wisconsin since 1988.
++To pull this hat trick off, Trump actually has to have a ground game. He simply can't rely on flying in at the spur of the moment.
++As Jason linking said Trump's campaign strategy is an off-track mess.
Friday, June 17, 2016
In The Hitler Liked Dogs Department
++Britain was shocked that the assassin of Jo Cox could gave done it because he was a quiet,soft-spoken guy--who just happens to be linked to Neo-Nazis in the United States and had been active FOR (not against) apartheid. In fact he got his guns from the Neo-Nazis here.
++Glenn Greenwald at Intercept asks why isn;t this guy called a "terrorist", which is a refrain we asked about Sandy Hook, the shooter at Mother Emmanuel and the Planned Parenthood killer.
++Glenn Greenwald at Intercept asks why isn;t this guy called a "terrorist", which is a refrain we asked about Sandy Hook, the shooter at Mother Emmanuel and the Planned Parenthood killer.
VOX ON TRUMP'S EPIC DISASTER IN HIS FIRST MONTH AS NOMINEE.
++Andrew Prokop at VOX writes a lengthy analysis of how Trump's first month as then GOP nominee has been an epic failure.
++Already the article is out of date. Duncan Hunter,Jr., the Trump chair for the House, already refuses to serve as delegate and tells reporters he can't explain Trump's positions. Today the Post reports that several dozen delegates are in open revolt and are plotting to stop Trump at the Convention. To which Trump replies "That's illegal." In the Post,front-page story,is a lengthy account of his attempts to woo Putin and the Russian billionaires to build Trump towers and condos throughout Russia. Another story is how he didn't pay taxes for two years.
++That doesn't include his statements that he is better than Clinton on gays because he won't allow Muslims to kill them. Notwithstanding his pledge to Christian fundamentalists that he would come down on same-sex marriage and has changed his ming on transgender people using different bathrooms.
++But ,for me, the heart of Prokop's piece ,which has been uttered in Politico, the Wall Street Journal and other media outlets is that Trump is not mounting a general election campaign. The head of the Pennsylvania GOP said that Trump is an unorthodox candidate so we depend on him showing up and motivating the crowds.
++Trump has barely spent any time fundraising for an estimated $1.1 billion campaign. He has been given a list of donors to call but has only called three so far.
++Trump has barely spent any time campaigning in a swing state. Today he was in Texas,not the best use of his resources. With little fund-raising,it means he can't have media buys in swing states like Hillary Clinton has.
++His relationship with the RNC gets worse everyday. Reince Preibus spent the day calling state chairmen about how anti-Trump is their state delegation.
++Trump has concluded that traditional campaigning is "useless" so he is relying on the RNC for his field operation and their data. He thinks data is over-rated and won't do the micro targeting we saw in the 2012 campaign.
++This also means that his dependency on the RNC will cut into their congressional and Senate campaigns. That's why George W. Bush has been drafted in fund-raising for threatened GOP Senators.
++For all os this his decline in the polls has not been that drastic. The aggregate Andrew uses is Clinton 44.7% to Trump 38.3%. The importance of this to Clinton is that a double digit lead helps lift the entire Democratic ticket. This will be something the Clinton crowd will have to watch.
++But the commentariat ,especially the Republican side,is not helping Trump at all.
Today, we probably had the 6th Michael Gerson Column against Trump--this time entitled "The GOP Is Learning The Hard way That Character Matters". Neo-conservative Robert Kagan, now supporting Clinton,writes "Sorry,Republican, checks and balances won't stop a fascist like Trump". Even Charlie Krauthammer gets in "Trump Is running As Trump. Surprise!"
++Liberal Gene Robinson piles on with "The Challenges In covering Trump's Relentless Assault on Truth." Gene says Trump is the "biggest liar in the history of American politics."
++In answering Trump's statements yesterday that American troops in Iraq embezzled money,The post ran a piece by music critique Corbin Reiff ,who served in Iraq and actually gave away millions of dollars that he knew no one who stole money and the military would be appalled. The article was titled "Trump's Code of Dishonor."
++Yesterday at the New York Times, Andrew Rosenthal wrote an oped how Trump's presidency would bring on genocide in the United States.
++The Post slammed Trump for his remarks on Orlando in an editorial "An Assault On Our Values."
++So far the celebrities at the GOP look pretty grim. Trump wants to have a group of athletes speaking to Americans and getting us motivated to "win again." The talent part of it belongs at least three decades back.
++In a rare attempt at fundraising ,Trump will be a dinner at the old Goldwater estate. Barry Goldwater's widow gagged and said how horrid le Trump was.
++Already the article is out of date. Duncan Hunter,Jr., the Trump chair for the House, already refuses to serve as delegate and tells reporters he can't explain Trump's positions. Today the Post reports that several dozen delegates are in open revolt and are plotting to stop Trump at the Convention. To which Trump replies "That's illegal." In the Post,front-page story,is a lengthy account of his attempts to woo Putin and the Russian billionaires to build Trump towers and condos throughout Russia. Another story is how he didn't pay taxes for two years.
++That doesn't include his statements that he is better than Clinton on gays because he won't allow Muslims to kill them. Notwithstanding his pledge to Christian fundamentalists that he would come down on same-sex marriage and has changed his ming on transgender people using different bathrooms.
++But ,for me, the heart of Prokop's piece ,which has been uttered in Politico, the Wall Street Journal and other media outlets is that Trump is not mounting a general election campaign. The head of the Pennsylvania GOP said that Trump is an unorthodox candidate so we depend on him showing up and motivating the crowds.
++Trump has barely spent any time fundraising for an estimated $1.1 billion campaign. He has been given a list of donors to call but has only called three so far.
++Trump has barely spent any time campaigning in a swing state. Today he was in Texas,not the best use of his resources. With little fund-raising,it means he can't have media buys in swing states like Hillary Clinton has.
++His relationship with the RNC gets worse everyday. Reince Preibus spent the day calling state chairmen about how anti-Trump is their state delegation.
++Trump has concluded that traditional campaigning is "useless" so he is relying on the RNC for his field operation and their data. He thinks data is over-rated and won't do the micro targeting we saw in the 2012 campaign.
++This also means that his dependency on the RNC will cut into their congressional and Senate campaigns. That's why George W. Bush has been drafted in fund-raising for threatened GOP Senators.
++For all os this his decline in the polls has not been that drastic. The aggregate Andrew uses is Clinton 44.7% to Trump 38.3%. The importance of this to Clinton is that a double digit lead helps lift the entire Democratic ticket. This will be something the Clinton crowd will have to watch.
++But the commentariat ,especially the Republican side,is not helping Trump at all.
Today, we probably had the 6th Michael Gerson Column against Trump--this time entitled "The GOP Is Learning The Hard way That Character Matters". Neo-conservative Robert Kagan, now supporting Clinton,writes "Sorry,Republican, checks and balances won't stop a fascist like Trump". Even Charlie Krauthammer gets in "Trump Is running As Trump. Surprise!"
++Liberal Gene Robinson piles on with "The Challenges In covering Trump's Relentless Assault on Truth." Gene says Trump is the "biggest liar in the history of American politics."
++In answering Trump's statements yesterday that American troops in Iraq embezzled money,The post ran a piece by music critique Corbin Reiff ,who served in Iraq and actually gave away millions of dollars that he knew no one who stole money and the military would be appalled. The article was titled "Trump's Code of Dishonor."
++Yesterday at the New York Times, Andrew Rosenthal wrote an oped how Trump's presidency would bring on genocide in the United States.
++The Post slammed Trump for his remarks on Orlando in an editorial "An Assault On Our Values."
++So far the celebrities at the GOP look pretty grim. Trump wants to have a group of athletes speaking to Americans and getting us motivated to "win again." The talent part of it belongs at least three decades back.
++In a rare attempt at fundraising ,Trump will be a dinner at the old Goldwater estate. Barry Goldwater's widow gagged and said how horrid le Trump was.
Reuters/Ipsos Rolling Poll
++Is this their version of the Romney surge. Reuters text to the poll says that Orlando benefited Trump and that terrorism jumped to the first priority of the voter.
++Evidence was that Clinton has 45.5%,Trump 34.8% and 19.7% want neither.
++This was on contrast to last Sunday when Clinton had 46.6% to Trump's 32.2%
++And this is statiscally meaningful?
Josh Marshall Points You To Anther Trump Scandal.
++Corporate donors are fleeing the Cleveland GOP convention in droves. The Donald has out soured his entire ground game to the RNC.
++Marshall explains why that is crazy. But even more the Donald has all of 30 people as his field reps covering 50 states.
++Marshall has written two pieces the last two days explaining the turbulence of the Trump Train.
++Marshall explains why that is crazy. But even more the Donald has all of 30 people as his field reps covering 50 states.
++Marshall has written two pieces the last two days explaining the turbulence of the Trump Train.
Le Grand Orange
++No,Not Donald Trump.
++That's the answer to the baseball trivia question on democraticunderground.com.
++Who is the only major league baseball player who had at least 500 hits on four different ball teams?
++Rusty Staub. Le Grand Orange.
++That's the answer to the baseball trivia question on democraticunderground.com.
++Who is the only major league baseball player who had at least 500 hits on four different ball teams?
++Rusty Staub. Le Grand Orange.
The Muslim Ban
++Paul Ryan told Sweeney Todd that he would force any House Republicans to support Trump. Asked what he would do if Trump tried to ban Muslims. Ryan said he would sue him.
Thursday, June 16, 2016
Hillary's VP Picks.
++A list was leaked to the Wall Street Journal. You leak lists like this to satisfy various constituencies and use it as a trial balloon about your choices.
++Some on the list speak to domestic concerns,which should encourage Berniebots but didn't really seem up to the presidential challenge. But then there was Dan Quayle. So who's to say.
++The List:
Elizabeth Warren--widely popular with extensive social media contacts and deep support among progressives. The negatives are that the Democrats would lose one seat in the Senate and a Republican would appoint her successor. She might scare off the Wall Street donors.
Tim Kaine--the number 2 choice for President Obama, fluent in Spanish, former Governor of Virginia , a swing state where he would be replaced by a Clinton friend as governor. Presently a Senator and the choice of the Washington Post. Incredibly boring and pro-life until a few years ago.
Sherrod Brown from Ohio--articulate progressive who would satisfy Bernie supporters. I find him interesting to listen to. Has a reputation as speaking to the working class. And would bring Ohio to Hillary not that Kasich won't support Trump.
HUD Secretary Julian Castro,41 years old, former Mayor of San Antonio. Basically not very well known and has accomplished alot in DC.
Eric Garcetti--an actual mayor of Los Angeles and has been on the forefront of minimum wage increase and other domestic economic issues but not well-known.
Tom Perez, current Secretary of Labor in the Obama Administration. A dominican. Revived the civil rights division in DOJ, which had become a sewer in the Bush years. Cracked down on corruption and Wall Street crimes. Telegenic but not a politician or campaigner.
Xavier Becerra--24 year House veteran and an opponent of trade deals. Best known for his progressive budgets, which really would work.
The Clintonites' favorite--Senator Cory Booker from New Jersey. Big presence on the social media. Saving people from burning buildings and shoveling twitter followers driveways. Unmarried and has been hostile to the teachers' unions which Hillary is trying to smooth out the feathers left from the Obama administration.
Tim Ryan from Youngstown ,Ohio. A big Clinton supporter and economic populist but has been pro-life until very recently.
Now think about Hillary's 2008 choices: Tim Kaine,Joe Biden, Tom Vilsack, Evan Bayh. All white males.
The choice will be interesting in what it says about the fate of white males in American politics. I believe the safe choice is Sherrod Brown.
++Some on the list speak to domestic concerns,which should encourage Berniebots but didn't really seem up to the presidential challenge. But then there was Dan Quayle. So who's to say.
++The List:
Elizabeth Warren--widely popular with extensive social media contacts and deep support among progressives. The negatives are that the Democrats would lose one seat in the Senate and a Republican would appoint her successor. She might scare off the Wall Street donors.
Tim Kaine--the number 2 choice for President Obama, fluent in Spanish, former Governor of Virginia , a swing state where he would be replaced by a Clinton friend as governor. Presently a Senator and the choice of the Washington Post. Incredibly boring and pro-life until a few years ago.
Sherrod Brown from Ohio--articulate progressive who would satisfy Bernie supporters. I find him interesting to listen to. Has a reputation as speaking to the working class. And would bring Ohio to Hillary not that Kasich won't support Trump.
HUD Secretary Julian Castro,41 years old, former Mayor of San Antonio. Basically not very well known and has accomplished alot in DC.
Eric Garcetti--an actual mayor of Los Angeles and has been on the forefront of minimum wage increase and other domestic economic issues but not well-known.
Tom Perez, current Secretary of Labor in the Obama Administration. A dominican. Revived the civil rights division in DOJ, which had become a sewer in the Bush years. Cracked down on corruption and Wall Street crimes. Telegenic but not a politician or campaigner.
Xavier Becerra--24 year House veteran and an opponent of trade deals. Best known for his progressive budgets, which really would work.
The Clintonites' favorite--Senator Cory Booker from New Jersey. Big presence on the social media. Saving people from burning buildings and shoveling twitter followers driveways. Unmarried and has been hostile to the teachers' unions which Hillary is trying to smooth out the feathers left from the Obama administration.
Tim Ryan from Youngstown ,Ohio. A big Clinton supporter and economic populist but has been pro-life until very recently.
Now think about Hillary's 2008 choices: Tim Kaine,Joe Biden, Tom Vilsack, Evan Bayh. All white males.
The choice will be interesting in what it says about the fate of white males in American politics. I believe the safe choice is Sherrod Brown.
You May Have Missed.
++Hillary Clinton campaign manager Jay Mook walked the new DNC national political director to the office demonstrating how the DNC and the Clinton campaign will be coordinated ---unlike say Trump and the RNC.
++The new political director of the general election is an African-American Brandon Davis, who has served as the national political director of the Services Employees International Union.
++Davis is known to the progressive community as being competent and smart as "f***k", according to Kos. He will bring an energy to mustering up the millennials.
++In case you are wondering Debbie Wasserman Schultz keeps her title but as Howard Dean said will probably focus on fund-raising.
++Hillary Clinton received the AFL-CIO endorsement from Richard Trumpka,its president today.
++Opray,whom Trump said was his ideal Vice President, endorsed Hillary Clinton today and said this was a golden opportunity for women.
++President Obama ,our Mourner-in-Chief , was in Orlando today with his sidekick Joe Biden to meet with all the relatives of the attack and the survivors.
++John McCain used the opportunity to say Obama was totally responsible for the Orlando killings because he withdrew from Iraq too early and he allowed ISIS to flourish.
++The new political director of the general election is an African-American Brandon Davis, who has served as the national political director of the Services Employees International Union.
++Davis is known to the progressive community as being competent and smart as "f***k", according to Kos. He will bring an energy to mustering up the millennials.
++In case you are wondering Debbie Wasserman Schultz keeps her title but as Howard Dean said will probably focus on fund-raising.
++Hillary Clinton received the AFL-CIO endorsement from Richard Trumpka,its president today.
++Opray,whom Trump said was his ideal Vice President, endorsed Hillary Clinton today and said this was a golden opportunity for women.
++President Obama ,our Mourner-in-Chief , was in Orlando today with his sidekick Joe Biden to meet with all the relatives of the attack and the survivors.
++John McCain used the opportunity to say Obama was totally responsible for the Orlando killings because he withdrew from Iraq too early and he allowed ISIS to flourish.
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
POLITICO: Trump says GOP leaders should be quiet.
++In Atlanta, Donald Trump said that GOP leaders should be quiet if they can't support him.
++"This is too tough alone. But you know what? I think I'm going to be forced to."
++Rep. Ryan said that the Muslim ban was against the national interest.
++Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn said he would not talk about Trump until after November 8th.
++Trump attacked the Republican Party for not being tough . "They have to become sharper and smarter',
++Trump's remarks have come after a week of GOP congressional leaders distancing themselves from his remarks.
++"This is too tough alone. But you know what? I think I'm going to be forced to."
++Rep. Ryan said that the Muslim ban was against the national interest.
++Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn said he would not talk about Trump until after November 8th.
++Trump attacked the Republican Party for not being tough . "They have to become sharper and smarter',
++Trump's remarks have come after a week of GOP congressional leaders distancing themselves from his remarks.
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