Sunday, June 26, 2016

WHILE HILLARY IS UP:

++Remember this is summer on the Obama era where horrible things happen whether it is the oil blow out in the Gulf or BREXIT. And Hillary Is riding high but the New York Times and the Washington Post have run articles expressing concern that Hillary is not channeling the rage various constituencies feel . Even Bill Maher raised this issue and asked whether Bill Clinton would help. Paul Begala said he though Bill could talk the white working class done.

++The concern is that Hillary doesn't have ad buys in Michigan and Pennsylvania where white union members are susceptible to Trump's anti-trade tirades. Clinton supporters point out that her ground operation there is fully staffed and ready. Others says that her failure to go aerial soon runs the risk of a Brexit.

++Let's put up her opponent. Republican operatives are refusing to work with him even at the state level. 65% in the new Washington Post poll say he's not qualified to be president because he's a bigot. He lacks the war chest that Hillary has but Cruz backing billionaires are creating a new SuperPac. He has yet to unify the party and more GOP big shots are abandoning him. He has not put in state operations in key battleground states.

++Bernie Sanders has not be useful here. He is having a large impact on the Democratic platform and won major concessions on the make-up of the DNC. But he keeps waffling on if he supports Hillary.

++The concern is that white working males will move from Sanders to Trump. These mornings polls show it is about 20%. Local AFL-CIO officials claim their membership in the mid-West may go 50-50 in the general election.

++In my opinion, Hillary Clinton has given two solid economic speeches recently which are more in line with the old Democratic party's economic platforms. But they don't compare with Elizabeth Warren on the stump. Elizabeth Warren is so far the best Hillary surrogate as recent speeches in New Hampshire show. Besides she brought Dunkin Donuts to the House sit-in on gun control.

++But yes, Hillary doesn't give pyrotechnic speeches and has a tendency to throw away leads, which makes very one nervous. 

++To avoid total doom,I have to rely on the knowledge that she has both organization and the money.  And in my naiveté,I believe women and minorities will serve as a firewall against Trump's faux populism. The huge question mark right now is the millennials. They came out in big way for the EU in the once United Kingdom but will they come out in the United States?

++Then there is the electoral college. If we can go by any history,Hillary starts off with 240 EVs against Donald's 191. But one always has to have a concern about the Democratic message machine which failed horribly in the 2010 and 2014 by-elections. 

++President Obama has been delayed hitting the hustings because of BREIXT and The Supreme Court decision on immigration. But when he hits the road,and Mighty Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren we should see some change in energy.

++I don't know about the "rage" dimension but the energy issue is real and can overcome the "rage."

++The Right has placed their entire hopes on Hillary Clinton being indicted on the e-mail server. Notice how this went from benghazi to classified emails to now just the server itself.But in this year, who knows?

++The Right is mum about Trump's pedophilia and his federal rape case, Trump University or his tax returns. The extent of his mob ties is sporadically covered by the press. 

++For his part, Trump tries to make "Crooked Hillary" stick claiming she used the State Department as her private hedge fund and that she laundered funds through the Clinton Foundation. But so far,the only effect is that the electorate doesn't trust either of them but trust Hillary more on security. 

++The parallels to Brexit and our general election is inexact. The "Leave" vote was based on perceptions about immigration. Immigration does not rank high as a concern among Democrats or independents. When it does, it has motivated the voter registration campaigns among Latinos. 

++We will have to see how the immediate economic fallout of Breixt will affect our public opinion. That's why today marks the high-watermark of Clinton until August.


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